Macro Tides

As expected and discussed in the January Macro Tides the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped below 7.0% falling to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.

One of the themes I’ve discussed in recent months is the disconnect between a 40 year high in inflation and the lack of experience money managers have in understanding the monetary policy required to deal with such high inflation, including managers with 25 to 30 years of experience

In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.

In 2021 the FOMC refused to accept and acknowledge that inflation was getting worse in the second and third quarter and continued with its monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasury debt and Mortgage Backed Securities.

In March 2020 the Federal Reserve was able to use old and new tools to manage the unimaginable – a Pandemic. The Fed stabilized the Treasury bond market and the municipal bond market through its purchases and back stopped government loans to small and medium sized businesses to keep them from going under.

The 10-year Treasury yield finished 2020 at 0.917% and then climbed to 1.765% before topping on March 30. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 2.505% on March 18 after ending 2020 at 1.646%. In the January 11 Weekly Technical Review (WTR) I noted that Treasury yields had broken out to the upside and that the 10-year Treasury yield would likely climb to 1.75% to 1.95% in 2021. “Treasury yields broke out on January 6 as expectations of more fiscal stimulus and technical selling kicked into gear. At some point in 2021, the 10-year Treasury yield could spike up to 1.75% to 1.95%.”

Transitory is defined as being of brief duration, tending to pass away and not persistent

Some changes unfold over time and it’s possible to see them coming. There are demographic changes coming in the next decade that will change the direction of the U.S., since the Silent generation and the Baby Boomers hold a different view of government than Gen Z’s and Millennials.

Some changes unfold over time and it’s possible to see them coming. There are demographic changes coming in the next decade that will change the direction of the U.S. since the Silent Generation and the Baby Boomers hold a different view of government than Gen Z’s and Millennials.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic governments imposed shelter in place rules for their citizens and issued orders to close all but essential business in their country. The collective impact resulted in an unprecedented global plunge in economic activity that threatens the existence of many small and medium size businesses...

Although there were good reasons to question whether GDP growth would accelerate in the first quarter, there were also good reasons why I expected the rate of growth to improve before mid year.

In October the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2019 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.2% in July. This represents a marked slowing from global growth of 3.8% in 2017. The primary driver of the slowdown has been a retrenchment in global trade and business investment in response to the ratcheting up of trade tariffs since early 2018.

In May the Congressional Budget office (CBO) updated its 10-year fiscal estimates for federal revenue, spending, and annual deficits through 2029. The CBO is a non partisan agency tasked with analyzing data to provide Congress estimates for GDP growth and the impact on government spending and revenue from changes in tax laws.

The expectation of a global rebound in the second half of 2019 was predicated on a positive resolution in the trade talks between the U.S. and China and the U.S. and the European Union. With a burst of stimulus from the Peoples Bank of China and Chinese fiscal stimulus since last summer, the global economy was beginning to show signs of improvement.

What happens in China clearly does not stay in China so the outlook for China’s growth in 2019 is one of the keys to how the global economy will perform and how financial markets will respond to that level of growth.