Motley Fool
Commentary
What "Misery" Can Tell Us About The Economy
by Bill Barker of Motley Fool,
Despite the recent market swoon, Bill Barker argues that the economy is holding up well by historical standards.
Commentary
The Fake Economy
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
A random question for you (one that contemplates your breaking federal law, so be forewarned): Given enough time and ample resources, do you think you could create a reasonable facsimile of a $20 bill? I'd wager that given modern printing capabilities, a reasonably diligent and determined individual could create a fool-some-of-the-people copy of a $20 bill.
Commentary
You're an Idiot. Statistically.
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
Statistically, the SEC found that American investors - regardless of age, race, or gender - lack basic financial literacy, and that they generally do not understand even the most elementary financial concepts such as compound interest and inflation.
Commentary
On Corruption
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
Several large countries have little or no presence in our portfolios that have international mandates. A major reason for this is our fear of corruption in those markets. Our heightened concerns about the treatment of foreign capital in Argentina, for example, convinced us that we should greatly reduce our exposure to companies generating large amounts of revenue there.
Commentary
The Good Life Comes at a Cost
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
If we see so little vitality from Europe, why do we invest there? First of all, the fact that Europe has been in crisis is obvious, which means that investors everywhere have been looking for other places to put their money. When this happens, investors tend not to differentiate between the great and the not-great. And second, even if Europe were toast (which it isn't), that doesn't mean that every company in Europe is equally hosed. Many of the worlds great brands are European, and many of them generate much, if not most of their revenues in other markets around the world.
Commentary
Everyone Hates Stocks ...and That's Why You Shouldn't
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
I dont tend to put currency into market moves, particularly short-term ones. But it has to be said that the tenor of the news regarding economies worldwide has been unambiguously bad. Why in the world would stocks go up in the face of such misery? Havent people heard about whats going on in Greece? Of course they have -- its why so many rushed out of risk assets last October and November. But while the caterwauling has done its job in spooking people, the underlying facts belie the news cycle: the American economy is booming.
Commentary
Imaginary Problems Who really benefits from lower regulatory burdens?
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
Did you know that it is extremely hard for American companies to go public? Neither did I. Yet Congress, which has shown little ability to engage in serious discussion about the large problems facing our country, has taken on this dubious crisis as its cause du jour, and in this instance, its doing an absolutely great job. Of course, I learned a long time ago that if something isnt worth doing, it certainly isnt worth doing well.
Commentary
What They Don't Want You To Know And Why You Should Know It
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
In the next few weeks, shareholders in the Independence and Great America Funds will be receiving advice regarding capital gains and dividend distributions for the year. The good news is that for both funds, the short- and long-term capital gains distributions will be very low. This is a reflection of our tendency toward long-term share ownership and low turnover, as well as our willingness to engage in tax-loss selling to net some existing losses against recognized gains.
Commentary
Unexpected Encounters in Saudi Arabia
by Tim Hanson of Motley Fool,
Like most frontier and emerging markets, Saudi Arabia needs better infrastructure to serve its people as well as inland businesses. Further, reliance on one major export, oil, subjects the country to sharp cyclicality. And finally, the countrys strict religion likely deters knowledge workers from the country. As Saudi Arabia modernizes to more and more resemble neighbors such as Dubai and Qatar, it will undoubtedly experience growing pains. As long-term investors, however, we are willing to put up with those pains so long as we benefit from compelling long-term progress.
Commentary
Unexpected Encounters in Saudi Arabia
by Tim Hanson of Motley Fool,
As long-term investors, however, we are willing to put up with pains so long as we benefit from compelling long-term progress. With a large and growing population, an economy backstopped by a valuable global commodity, and a variety of surprisingly well-run companies, Saudi appears to offer just that. Look for us to continue adding to our funds exposure to the country and the region in the coming months and years.
Commentary
The Other Keynes
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
We are buying stocks for two reasons. First, we see a market environment in which there are enormous disconnects between how much companies are worth and how much they're selling for. That's the easy reason and the one entirely in our control. Put simply, where there is fear, there is opportunity. But the second reason is far more important: We are buying stocks because we can. Thanks to patient, long-term-oriented shareholders, our funds have seen extremely mild levels of redemptions. That means we still have capital to put to work at a great time to be putting capital to work.
Commentary
China: "Drink Blood"
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
There are a few realities in China that foreign investors do not seem to have fully grasped. Financial statistics at every level are suspect. There is functionally no rule of law, since laws are written to support the Communist Party and are applied to benefit local party bosses. The banking system is in a shambles, since banks in China are organs of both political and economic policy. A recent UBS study places the potential for municipality debt default in China as high as US$450 billion. Perhaps more worrying is the potential for a reckoning.
Commentary
The Dangerous Phase
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
A falling stock market is one of the few arenas where the human instinct of flight is a net negative. Two homilies that you hear over and over from investors are 'dont catch a falling knife" and 'wait out the uncertainty.' Consider this: August had the biggest monthly fund outflows since March 2009. It's easy to forget now, but there was nothing to signify that March was the bottom. In fact, the news during that month was horrible. People who deployed capital into the market in March 2009 were doing something extremely uncomfortable, when every sinew screamed at them to run.
Commentary
A Sputnik Moment
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
Our greatest tendency, one we hope you share, is to buy aggressively when market blowouts occur. Such blowouts tend to happen in the face of some really big thing. In the last few weeks, the markets have faced the following really big things: political wrangling over raising the U.S. debt ceiling, the potential collapse of the Eurozone (even following its six separate crisis-ending actions over the last two years), a rating cut of U.S. debt, and rising unrest and inflation in China. Its a scary time. Horrifying, actually. How have we responded to this? We are buying.
Commentary
Sine Cera
by Bill Mann of Motley Fool,
I had a talk with a renowned short-seller who accused me of having too little imagination in considering the set of known facts about a potentially fraudulent company. In some ways hes right. In practice, if I find myself saying "hmm" Im just going to move on to the next idea. We do something I like to call "looking for ghosts," to try to find inconsistencies that even hint at things. Not that long ago a Chinese chicken producer came to pitch us on participating in its offer. The company had nice-looking financials, so nice that its gross margins were double those of Charoen Pokphand.
