Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Market Bottoms
Future market performance depends on a question that bullish commentators seem to be glossing over.
Where Is That Confounded Recession?
We took a close look at the "Big-3" recession precursors and concluded it's too soon to bet on a U.S. recession.
U.S. Recession Watch: The Six-Cycle Forecast
Checklist, anyone? Here’s an unconventional but effective forecasting approach that uses a simple checklist. Instead of treating the business cycle as a single, uniform force, the approach pivots on six key component cycles.
Testing the Fed's Narrative with the Fed's Data: QT Edition
The Fed’s positions on quantitative easing and quantitative tightening are curiously contradictory, at least on the surface, but we can unravel the effects of both with financial flows data. In a single chart, we show that bank and broker-dealer behavior fails to match the Fed's expectations.
TSP Indicator Update: Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966
We update a spending-power indicator that has an excellent track record predicting the economy.
You Might Like To Watch This Picture As Asset Markets Fall
We describe a spending-power measure that has an excellent track record predicting the economy. As financial markets struggle to regain their nine-year-long buoyancy, our measure bears watching.
Recommendation for Bond Investors: Don't Fight Financial Repression
Investors might be interested in this month’s alarming debt projections from the CBO, which beg the question: Is America’s near-vertical debt trajectory bullish or bearish for bond holders? Here’s my answer.
A Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers, Part 1
Just about everyone keeps a close eye on the economy’s borrowers these days, but there aren’t as many eyes on the lenders. After subdividing debt by the type of lender, we find a recession indicator that demands our attention.
Stock Risks to Watch: Choose Your Bear Market Dashboard
Our bear market dashboards compare current conditions to the conditions that shaped past market cycles. Those comparisons look favorable today, but several risks bear watching.
Q1 Stock Market Outlook: We're Gonna Need a Bigger Slide
I continue to track the similarities between President Kennedy’s stock market and President Trump’s market. To help determine whether those similarities will continue, I describe a market indicator called VCURVE, and then I discuss what the indicator might be telling us about the market’s performance in Q1 2018.
Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here's a Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard
Our economic dashboard shows how current conditions compare to the conditions that shaped past business cycles. Although the dashboard looks favorable today, it begs a closer look at financial flows data.