Commentary

Will 2024 be 1968 Déjà Vu All Over Again?

The article explores potential parallels between 1968 and 2024, specifically in the context of the stock market and economic trends. It delves into the concept of secular trends, emphasizing the importance of considering inflation-adjusted stock prices to comprehend the potential impact on portfolios.

Commentary

The Bull Market Has Just Been Refreshed: Where Does it Go from Here?

The article explores the current state of the bull market, offering insights from Pring Turner Capital. The author discusses indicators supporting optimism for a second leg of the bull market, citing economic, monetary, and technical factors.

Commentary

A Soft-Landing Scenario Gains More Adherents but How Long Will it be Viable?

In February this year we wrote an article entitled A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Recession. Fast forward to the current situation, where opinion has shifted away from recession in favor of a soft-landing scenario. Does that same contrary analysis mean a recession is now more likely? The simple answer is no, not yet anyway!

Commentary

Transitioning from Secular Bull to Bear?

If 2022 was the zenith of the post financial crisis bull market, the intervening year and a quarter is a relatively short period from which to conclude that a turn in the secular tide has taken place. That said, several indicators have already begun to signal a change in trend.

Commentary

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Recession

The US economy has reached a crucial juncture point, as several leading economic indicators are on the edge of signaling a recession.

Commentary

Are You Prepared for A Possible Lost Decade Ahead?

Growing Evidence the Secular Trend in Stock Prices May be Reversing! We can’t be sure that the equity secular bull market for stocks is over, but it’s quite apparent that several reliable indicators are moving in that direction. Many others are on the brink of a sell signal.

Commentary

The Bursting of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles—Part II

In March of last year, we wrote an article entitled “Timing the End of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles”. Our conclusion for Bitcoin was that it was indeed in a bubble but that there was insufficient technical evidence at the time indicating its bursting.

Commentary

Burglar or Bank Robber? Time to Watch Your Wallet and Stock Portfolio!

In an October 2021 article, we made the case for a new secular commodity bull market and concluded that this environment would likely spill back into the economy and stock market.

Commentary

Impending Super Cycle Commodity Signal Argues Against Transitory Inflation

We are in uncharted waters on many fronts, so no one can really answer that inflation/deflation question with any degree of certainty. We can however, look to the technical condition of commodity markets for guidance, since they have usually, acted as a barometer for more generalized swings in inflationary and deflationary pressures. Commodity prices look poised to signal a new secular bull market, which would likely broaden out to result in the highest more generalized inflation rates since the 1970’s.

Commentary

Timing the End of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles

A better appreciation of the history of market bubbles should help advisors and their clients sidestep some of the carnage when they inevitably burst. It is our intention in this article to take a more clinical approach by quantifying what we mean by a “bubble” solely in terms of market action. In that way, it is possible to compare conditions between individual markets and arrive at a rough standard. There are of course, many other aspects to bubbles and manias, several you can read about here.

Commentary

Five Charts that Make the Case for a Bull Market in Commodities

We see five independent areas providing evidence of a commodity bull market. They are, commodities themselves, the economy, and the bond, stock and currency markets. Let’s consider them in turn to see if this time commodities can fulfill their promise.

Commentary

Five Reasons for Being Bullish Despite a 60% Advance

After a wicked stock market decline into late March and impressive 60% advance off the low, it seems a stretch to expect still higher equity prices. However, a major extension to the post March rally is definitely supported by the five reliable long-term indicators featured in this research note. Their current position is far more consistent with a major long-term buying opportunity than a selling one.

Commentary

The May Employment Report was a Blowout but What’s Next?

Putting it all together, it seems likely that we are dealing with a short but sharp recession. The resultant recovery will initially look strong from a momentum point of view. That’s because the economy will quickly open up, egged on by the positive effects of record monetary, fiscal stimulus and over time with the reshoring of manufacturing jobs.

Commentary

Our Business Cycle Work Is Close to Signaling a Stage III. Guess Which Market That’s Bullish For?

Always being alert and anticipating the next inflection point in the business cycle can help you actively manage your investments while taking advantage of emerging profit opportunities and more importantly protect your wealth from the inevitable cyclical declines. This exceptionally long business cycle appears set to emerge from its third growth slowdown and has now reached the stage where a cyclical bull market in commodities can be expected.

Commentary

Recession Watch Update: Four Leading Economic Indicators Signal a Stronger Economy Ahead

Even though we have already experienced the longest expansion on record, the latest data suggest the possibility of a resurging level of business activity as the economy emerges from its third post 2009 slowdown. As a follow-up to our July article, Recovery or Recession? Ask the Stock Market Stupid!, here’s our latest business cycle update.