Commentary

Are You Prepared for A Possible Lost Decade Ahead?

Growing Evidence the Secular Trend in Stock Prices May be Reversing! We can’t be sure that the equity secular bull market for stocks is over, but it’s quite apparent that several reliable indicators are moving in that direction. Many others are on the brink of a sell signal.

Commentary

The Bursting of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles—Part II

In March of last year, we wrote an article entitled “Timing the End of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles”. Our conclusion for Bitcoin was that it was indeed in a bubble but that there was insufficient technical evidence at the time indicating its bursting.

Commentary

Burglar or Bank Robber? Time to Watch Your Wallet and Stock Portfolio!

In an October 2021 article, we made the case for a new secular commodity bull market and concluded that this environment would likely spill back into the economy and stock market.

Commentary

Impending Super Cycle Commodity Signal Argues Against Transitory Inflation

We are in uncharted waters on many fronts, so no one can really answer that inflation/deflation question with any degree of certainty. We can however, look to the technical condition of commodity markets for guidance, since they have usually, acted as a barometer for more generalized swings in inflationary and deflationary pressures. Commodity prices look poised to signal a new secular bull market, which would likely broaden out to result in the highest more generalized inflation rates since the 1970’s.

Commentary

Timing the End of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles

A better appreciation of the history of market bubbles should help advisors and their clients sidestep some of the carnage when they inevitably burst. It is our intention in this article to take a more clinical approach by quantifying what we mean by a “bubble” solely in terms of market action. In that way, it is possible to compare conditions between individual markets and arrive at a rough standard. There are of course, many other aspects to bubbles and manias, several you can read about here.

Commentary

Five Charts that Make the Case for a Bull Market in Commodities

We see five independent areas providing evidence of a commodity bull market. They are, commodities themselves, the economy, and the bond, stock and currency markets. Let’s consider them in turn to see if this time commodities can fulfill their promise.

Commentary

Five Reasons for Being Bullish Despite a 60% Advance

After a wicked stock market decline into late March and impressive 60% advance off the low, it seems a stretch to expect still higher equity prices. However, a major extension to the post March rally is definitely supported by the five reliable long-term indicators featured in this research note. Their current position is far more consistent with a major long-term buying opportunity than a selling one.

Commentary

The May Employment Report was a Blowout but What’s Next?

Putting it all together, it seems likely that we are dealing with a short but sharp recession. The resultant recovery will initially look strong from a momentum point of view. That’s because the economy will quickly open up, egged on by the positive effects of record monetary, fiscal stimulus and over time with the reshoring of manufacturing jobs.

Commentary

Our Business Cycle Work Is Close to Signaling a Stage III. Guess Which Market That’s Bullish For?

Always being alert and anticipating the next inflection point in the business cycle can help you actively manage your investments while taking advantage of emerging profit opportunities and more importantly protect your wealth from the inevitable cyclical declines. This exceptionally long business cycle appears set to emerge from its third growth slowdown and has now reached the stage where a cyclical bull market in commodities can be expected.

Commentary

Recession Watch Update: Four Leading Economic Indicators Signal a Stronger Economy Ahead

Even though we have already experienced the longest expansion on record, the latest data suggest the possibility of a resurging level of business activity as the economy emerges from its third post 2009 slowdown. As a follow-up to our July article, Recovery or Recession? Ask the Stock Market Stupid!, here’s our latest business cycle update.

Commentary

Recovery or Recession? Ask the Stock Market Stupid!

Even though there has been no recession for 10 years, students of the business cycle know that it is still alive and well. Instead of a full-blown contraction in business activity, the last decade has seen the US economy experience two mid-cycle growth slowdowns and subsequent recoveries. A third slowdown has been underway for the last year, begging the question of whether it will morph into a recession or transition into a fourth growth phase of this extended economic expansion.

Commentary

A Slowdown is in the Bag, but What About a Recession?

There is little doubt that the US economy is in a state of slowdown. The big question, is “How will the economy emerge from this slowdown?” Will it be with renewed growth like 2016? or Does it fall into a full-blown recession a la 2007? The answer to that question is unknowable at this point in the cycle.

Commentary

Using Dr. Copper to Check the Pulse of the Global Economy

Holy cow! This economy is on fire; witness the second quarter U.S. GDP growth rate of 4.1%. Is it sustainable or a just a temporary spurt? It’s often said that the Copper price has a PHD in economics, because of its widespread use in many diverse industries. That use ranges from homes, factories, and electronics, to power generation and transmission and much more.

Commentary

Whatever Happened to the Business Cycle?

July 2018 will mark the 108th month of the economic recovery, making it the second longest expansion in history. Another 12-months or so and it will be the longest ever. Moreover, the consensus of economists foresees little trouble ahead.

Commentary

The Holy Grail Investment Formula: Better Returns with Less Risk

What would you do if I handed you a map to the Holy Grail of investing? Would you toss it in the trash because Nobel Laureate economists say it’s impossible to beat the market with less risk? Or would you give it a thorough read to see if there is any validity? Let’s find out.