Commentary

Charts for the Beach – 2022

It’s time for our annual August report, “Charts for the Beach.” Each year we highlight five of our favorite charts we think consensus is currently overlooking. Load up the cooler, get your towel and chair, and enjoy the charts! And, watch out for those sharks!!

Commentary

Investors Have Capitulated So Much, They’re Bullish

We’ve all heard the famous Yogi Berra quote, “Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded.” Investors today seem jazzed up on an opposite but similarly absurd concept: Wall Street thinks it’s a huge buying opportunity because everybody’s too bearish. In his latest Quick Insight, Dan Suzuki analyzes explains seven signs that suggest that investors have yet to capitulate.

Commentary

Japan and China: Shelter from Tightening Liquidity

Global liquidity has tightened dramatically this year, which may be a headwind to global equity markets. However, not all central banks are tightening because not all countries have an inflation problem. Our latest research insight explains why we think Japan and China warrant a closer look.

Commentary

The Only Two Certainties for Second Half of 2022

The investing world seems highly uncertain these days. Investors are understandably having trouble balancing earnings, the Fed, fiscal policy, inflation, economic growth, disease control, and geo- and US politics. Read our latest report to learn about the two certain events that are central to our current portfolio positioning.

Commentary

The Fixed Income Water is Getting Warmer

Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.

Commentary

Bear Markets Signal Leadership Change

Bear markets always signal a leadership change within the overall equity market. The leadership going into a bear market is rarely, if ever, the leadership coming out. Because of this rule of thumb, we view bear markets as periods of extreme opportunity.

Commentary

Bond Investors Underperformed Despite A Bull Market. Now What?

In our latest insight, we analyze the recent DALBAR study to determine how well (or not well) active fixed-income investors performed during the bull market and explain what we believe will be the best approach for fixed-income investing given the start of a pro-inflation paradigm shift.

Commentary

The Biggest Risk to Portfolios Today

To start, let’s discuss what diversification is and what it is not.

Commentary

The Start Of A New Investment Paradigm

The global economy seems to be significantly changing, yet investors remain very hesitant to alter their basic portfolio strategies. As they did around 2010, investors are using the old leadership as their portfolios’ core. We think this could be a mistake.

Commentary

These Are Not The Recession Signals You’re Looking For

The 2s10s curve is once again knocking on the door of becoming inverted (while some curves like the 3s10s and 5s10s already are), causing quite a stir among market watchers that recession is imminent. In his latest report, Michael Contopoulos examines the 2s10s yield curve movement leading up to the past 6 times the US economy slipped into a recession and discusses what could be different this time.

Commentary

Has The Bubble Already Deflated?

With the sell-off in bubble assets beginning to broaden out and accelerate this year, many pundits are suggesting the bubble has already deflated.

Commentary

The Fed’s “Put” Is Not What You Think It Is

We all love alliteration (hence, Rich’s favorite term to describe the Fed is “lily-livered”) but when it comes to the “Powell Put” or the “Powell Pivot,” we think investors need to understand the facts and intentions of the Federal Reserve before accepting a saying just because it rolls smoothly off the tongue.

Commentary

Aha! Interest Rates Do Matter

Investors have been spoiled by the trend in falling long-term interest rates over the past 40 years, but the economic backdrop is changing. Read our new report where we explain the concept of equity duration and analyze how interest rates, earnings, and the relationship between the two can impact equities.

Commentary

Defensive bubble stocks = umbrellas in a hurricane

In October, we published analysis demonstrating why it’s never too early to sell a bubble. Unsurprisingly, investors still seem reluctant to reduce their bubble exposure, preferring instead to move up in bubble quality.

In his latest report, Dan Suzuki shows that when a bubble collapses, everything in it goes down, including proven leaders and tomorrow's winners, regardless of valuation, beta or quality. Thus, the only way to protect from a bubble is to get as far away from it as you can.

Commentary

2022: Back to the Future

While the Fed has now dropped "transitory" from their communications, the US and global economies might indeed be in a transitory state, and the important investment question is transitioning to what? It seems highly unlikely the economy will return to its pre-pandemic state. In our year ahead outlook report, we highlight our views on the best investment opportunities for 2022, given our analysis of an economic transition during the coming year.