The Initial Education from a Secular Pivot
One and three hundred years before the enormity of the present dilemma began to dawn on the Federal Reserve, a similar moment arrived within the stone walls of the Banque Royale. You may recall the scene we visited last year.
The Growing Apprehension of the Inflating Fiscal Put
For the years following the Lehman crisis, the Fed put was the norm. Exceptionally loose monetary policy ensured risk assets had a safety net. But central banks were unable to rehabilitate the real economy while governments kept their belts tight.
Intelligent Investing Finally Returned in 2022
For those of us with an inclination toward understanding current events through the lens of history, periods of irrational exuberance represent a special challenge.
After a Decade of Decadence, the Early Dawn of Comprehension Hits the Federal Reserve
After a decade of decadence in which the base money supply was multiplied more than seven-fold in an effort to prevent deflation, broader measures of money supply and consumer prices may have only just begun catching up.
Missing the Forest for the Trees in the Early Months of a Long-Term Bear Market
This is part 1 of Volume I Issue VI of the Macro Value Monitor, a publication focusing on Monetary History, Market Myths, Investing Legends, and Real Global Value.
A Brief Chronicle of the Federal Reserve’s First Balance Sheet Contraction
If we follow the threads underlying inflation over the past year to their earliest beginnings, they run straight through the fog of pandemic, quickly pass by the financial crisis in 2008, and wind their way past the Great Inflation of the 1970s...
The Moment When Monetary Policy Runs Aground on the Third Great Mistake
The story of the Banque Royale and the Mississippi Bubble in the first issue of the Macro Value Monitor may sound like a tall tale of financial fiction, but those events did in fact occur three centuries ago in France.
The Policy Repercussions of the Third Great Mistake Are Slowly Becoming More Apparent
As much as last year centered around the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on the economy, the major topic of discussion in the financial markets this year has been centered around inflation, and its prospective impact on monetary policy.
A Look at Prospective Market Returns Amid a New Era of Negative Real Rates
One theme we have focused on in these letters over the past three years is what a transition into a regime of negative real interest rates looks and feels like, and the long-term consequences such a regime brings for the markets, and for investors.
Shiller’s ECY Makes Relative Sense, but the Market’s Absolute Return May Be Another Story
It often happens that associations which end up leaving an indelible mark on our collective memory of certain market events are the result of sheer happenstance
This Era May Come to Be Remembered as the Federal Reserve’s Third Great Mistake
The Great Inflation of the 1960s and 70s, the earliest stages of which were already underway when Graham spoke at the St. Francis Hotel, eventually produced some of the most astonishing economic dislocations in U.S. history.