Tocqueville Asset Management
Commentary
Gold’s Dot Plot
John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) writes in his Q1 investor letter that the price of gold may be offering a clear signal that the Federal Reserve’s "dot plot" - the interest rate levels projected by the members of the Fed Open Market Committee after each meeting - "is due for an overhaul."
Commentary
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Fourth Quarter 2017
John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) writes in his Q4 investor letter that “cryptocurrencies attempt to mimic one of the key attributes of gold: a liquid real asset with no counterparty risk. We view cryptocurrencies as contributors, and possibly as accelerants, to the long-term undermining of all paper currencies. We see them as allies of gold and threats to fiat currency, not as an existential threat to the metal, as they have been so frequently portrayed.”
Commentary
Tocqueville's Hathaway on Gold: The Fed is ‘Caught in a lie’
We suspect that the Fed has already lost substantial credibility, but that investors prefer to look the other way as long as financial-asset values remain intact. It is, in our opinion, an “everybody knows the dice are loaded” situation that could portend an even sharper, impossible-to-escape downdraft once confidence is dislodged.
Commentary
Weeks Where Decades Happen
John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) writes in his latest investor letter that "the precious metals markets have clearly turned the corner, becoming flat-out bullish following the extensive and painful correction from August 2011 to year-end 2015. Despite the impressive year-to-date advance, we believe this cycle is still in its infancy, and that it promises to be extremely powerful."
Commentary
The Challenge of Re-Entry
If you sell when the market no longer represents “value”, when do you buy back?
Commentary
Today's KYC Rules No Substitution for Know Your Customer
In his latest piece, Francois Sicart, Founder and Chairman of Tocqueville Asset Management, contrasts current 'Know Your Customer' rules with those that had been practiced for decades, when "stockbrokers were among the most trusted members of their communities."
Commentary
Paper Gold: Utopia for Alchemists
An acute shortage of readily marketable physical gold is developing that we believe will deepen in years to come. This possibility seems to be unrecognized by those who are short the gold market through paper contracts. The relentless dumping of synthetic or paper gold contracts since 2011 by speculators in Western financial markets has caused the shortage. The steady selling has driven down the price of physical gold, hobbled the gold-mining industry, and drained the stores of gold held in the vaults of Western financial centers.
Commentary
You Cannot Manage New Economies with Obsolete Measuring Tools
In his latest piece, Francois Sicart, Founder and Chairman of Tocqueville Asset Management, discusses how misleading macroeconomic averages and aggregates can be as they often consist of components that could both signal either economic weakness or an acceleration with the potential to rekindle inflation.
Commentary
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter Third Quarter 2015
Financial market turmoil has been what was needed to rekindle investment interest in gold, as we have argued in our investor letters this year. The onset of a bear market is what we envisioned in making this statement. A preliminary glimpse of what is what is needed to turn the tide for the gold market occurred in the 3rd quarter with a sharp decline in all global equity markets. On a year to date basis, most of the leading stock market averages are now in the red.
Commentary
A Hall of Fame Client
Over two or three decades, money-management has changed in the same way that medicine and law, for example, have changed. What used to be professions have become businesses, for the sake of cost-cutting, pooling of resources, growth, and operational leverage. In the process, whereas the main goal of professionals used to be to excel at the services they provided, with growth being ancillary, that goal has now been relegated to a spot behind the pressure to “meet the figures.”
Commentary
Turning an Oxymoron into an Opportunity
For my part, I feel in total harmony with the contrarian and value disciplines that have guided my investments for 40 years. At the same time, I also claim (and aim) to be a long-term investor. Yet, almost from the start of my career, I have had the somewhat uncomfortable feeling that, in practice, these claims may be contradictory.
Commentary
Three Steps to "Good Enough" - In Praise of Simplicity, Common Sense, and Stubbornness
The plain truth is that in the practice of investment, “good enough,” combined with a solid dose of common sense, usually beats precision and faith in mathematical models. So, if a careful analysis has given us a “good enough” idea of a company’s worth, we can assume that its market-traded shares will fluctuate – sometimes wildly – around that fundamental value. And that may be the value investor’s salvation.
Commentary
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter: Q2 2015
What is required to restore investor interest in gold? In our opinion, a prolonged bout of financial-market adversity would suffice. After all, the cornerstone of coordinated central-bank policy since 2008 has been the levitation of financial assets via Zero Interest-Rate Policy (ZIRP) and Quantitative Easing (QE) by forcing investors into risky assets. We believe that nothing would serve better to undermine confidence in central bankers than a bear market in bonds and equities. The roof above the dollar gold price has been built brick by brick from confidence in central bankers.
Commentary
Sell The Rumor, Buy The News
Investors have been selling the rumors lately, inverting the old adage. Rumors of a Greek default and a Fed rate hike have sent investors panicking for the nearest exits. But, will they buy the news? Who knows, but they should.
