With the recent movements in both the stock and bond markets, there was some noteworthy news that got kind of lost. Indeed, the U.S. government posted a $1.99 trillion budget deficit for fiscal year (FY) 2026. While technically it is not a record amount of red-ink, it represented the largest non-COVID-related shortfall ever recorded in modern history.
Central banks are tightening, and stocks are still within reach of their highs. The Fed hiked on September 16 for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% this month, its highest level since 2002. Even so, the S&P 500 sits within roughly 2.5% of its record, and Japanese equities recently set fresh all-time highs.