Commentary

Navigating Earnings Season: The Death of Price over Volume

Welcome to the second installment of our new blog series, “Navigating Earnings Season,” where I examine the world of earnings reports from major companies — giants like JP Morgan and Pepsi, as well as niche players in various sectors.

Commentary

Dominating Factors Determining the Course

The assassination attempt against former President Trump gave a bump to his odds of becoming president, as they rose from 60% to 67% on Monday morning on Predictit.org.

Commentary

2024 Economic & Market Outlook: Half-Time Report

Heading into the second half of 2024, it appears the markets are no longer focusing on the odds for a recession.

Commentary

Navigating Earnings Season: The Coming Outlooks

Welcome to our new weekly blog series, “Navigating the Earnings Season.” In this series, I dive into the world of earnings reports from major companies, spanning giants like JP Morgan and Pepsi, as well as niche players in various sectors.

Commentary

When Will the Yield Curve “Un”Invert?

The UST yield curve has been inverted, but there is speculation about when it will “un-invert" and move out of negative territory.

Commentary

Will the Fed Cut Rates before Reaching 2% Inflation?

The outlook for the Federal Reserve (Fed) through the first six months of 2024 has been a bit of a roller-coaster ride to say the least. While one could argue the overarching premise has been for rate cuts, it has certainly not been a smooth ride.

Commentary

Time for a Rate Cut?

The employment report from last Friday, in my view, was weak. Although the headline number came in slightly above expectations, the composition was troublesome, with more than 110k jobs subtracted from the last two months and private sector jobs lagging.

Commentary

Market Reacts to Presidential Debate

The presidential debate was the big story of the week and revealed a mild market preference for former President Trump. Notably, during the 90 minutes of the debate when there was no other market news, S&P 500 Futures rose 10 points, due to Trump’s business-friendly policies despite his higher-policy unpredictability.

Commentary

Staking a “Claim” With Inverted Curves

Remember when an inverted yield curve used to predict recessions? Here we are about two years removed from the Treasury yield curve moving into negative territory, and the U.S. economy has yet to move into recession territory. The economy’s resilience has certainly been a surprisingly welcome development and has left many a market participant wondering what happened.

Commentary

Fed Policy Implications Amid Seasonal Trends

Recent economic data slightly underperformed expectations, though nothing dramatically concerning. Jobless claims dipped just below the 240K level, which is something to watch closely. Claims above this threshold have historically been indicative of labor market weakness, which could influence Federal Reserve (Fed) policies.

Commentary

Consumer Staples Need a Weak Jobs Market

Is the labor market okay? Depends on who you ask. The answer to that question should be a strong guidepost for whether you like Consumer Staples relative to the broad market.

Commentary

Mixed Economic Signals: Inflation Down, Claims Up

Last week’s inflation data was very encouraging, with key indices like the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index coming in below expectations. Stay up to date with the latest commentary from Professor Siegel.

Commentary

The Costco Economy

The shift in consumer behavior toward buying more discretionary items is attributed to the deceleration of inflation, according to Costco management.

Commentary

The Prices Don’t Feel Right: Unraveling the Inflation Perception

Inflation is not fun. And—for the past 30 years—it has largely been a non-issue for consumers. That dynamic has changed. The relevant question is whether this is something persistent and meaningful or simply a fleeting feeling.

Commentary

Fed Watch: At the Midway Point

Once again, the Fed kept rates unchanged at the June FOMC meeting. As a result, the Fed Funds trading range remains in the 5.25%–5.50% band that was introduced in July last year, and still resides at a more than 20-year high-water mark.