We've called the slow, plodding economic recovery from mid-2009 through early 2017 a Plow Horse. It wasn't a thoroughbred, but it wasn't going to keel over and die either. Growth trudged along at a sluggish – but steady - 2.1% average annual rate.
The stock market is on a tear. The S&P 500 rose 19.4% in 2017 excluding dividends, and is already up over 4% in 2018. It's not a bubble or a sugar high. Our capitalized profits model, says the broad U.S. stock market, is, and was, undervalued.
Bonds have been in a "bull market" for the past thirty-seven years. Not every quarter, or every month, but bond yields have fallen consistently since Paul Volcker ended the inflation of the 1970s.
One word that could describe Donald Trump's unexpected ascendancy to the presidency is – "revolt." Revolt against the "establishment." Revolt against the "status quo."
The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in a manger because there was "no room for them in the inn."
Last December we wrote "we finally have more than just hope to believe that this year, 2017, is the year the Plow Horse Economy finally gets a spring in its step." We expected real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.0% in 2016 to "about 2.6%" in 2017.
The Federal Reserve did what just about everyone expected earlier today and raised short-term interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. The federal funds rate is now in a range from 1.25 - 1.50% and the Fed is now paying banks 1.50% on their reserve balances.
Models of the economy are pretty useful tools. And simple models are some of the most useful. They help people envision how the world works. They help organize thinking.
The Federal Reserve has a problem. At 4.1%, the jobless rate is already well below the 4.6% it thinks unemployment would/could/should average over the long run. We think the unemployment rate should get to 3.5% by the end of 2019 and wouldn't be shocked if it got that low in 2018, either.
Now that Black Friday has come and gone and Cyber Monday is upon us, you're going to hear a blizzard of numbers and reports about the US consumer. So far, these numbers show blowout on-line sales and a mild decline in foot traffic at brick-and-mortar stores.
We've called it a "Plow Horse" economy, which was our metaphor invented to counter forecasters who said slow growth meant a recession was on its way. A Plow Horse is always slow, but that slowness hides underlying strength – it was never going to slip and fall. Now, the economy is accelerating.
Are you an investor or a trader? Investors think long-term, while traders focus on short-term price movements.
Washington D.C. used to complain that Ronald Reagan employed a strategy of "starving the beast" – cutting taxes so that new spending was tough to legislate. Now, D.C. seems to employ the strategy of "gorging the beast" – spending so much that tax cuts are hard to pass.
The after effects of hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have done little to sway the opinion of Federal Reserve members that the economy is ready for further rate hikes. While leaving rates unchanged at today's meeting - as expected - they set the table for December.
The short-short list for new Fed Chair includes Janet Yellen, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Stanford economist John Taylor, the author of the "Taylor Rule." Right now Jerome Powell – a former Wall Street executive at Dillon Reed – is the runaway favorite. Taylor and Yellen are a very distant second and third.
While tax cuts grab the headlines, the bigger issue for long-term economic growth is government spending. Tax receipts are above their long-term average as a share of GDP, but the government is still spending over $650 billion more than it takes in. And this government spending crowds out private sector growth.
Congress took a big step last week toward enacting some sort of tax cuts and tax reform. That big step was the US Senate passing a budget resolution creating the room for ten years of tax cuts totaling $1.5 trillion with a simple majority vote. This procedure means there is no need to break a filibuster by getting to 60 votes.
Next week, government statisticians will release the first estimate for third quarter real GDP growth. In spite of hurricanes, and continued negativity by conventional wisdom, we expect 2.8% growth.
If the current economic expansion lasts another year and a half, it'll be the longest on record, even surpassing the expansion of the 1990s that ended in early 2001.
Last week, at her press conference, Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen said continued low inflation was a "mystery."
The big news today wasn't the Federal Reserve's decision to start gradually reducing its balance sheet in October. Almost everyone expected that. Instead, the big news was that twelve of the sixteen members of the Fed's interest-rate setting body – the Federal Open Market Committee – think the Fed will be raising interest rates by at least 25 basis points later this year.
No one expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates at the meeting this week. A rate change of any kind, either up or down, would be a complete stunner. Instead, the big news on monetary policy this week is very likely to be the Federal Reserve announcing it will begin gradually trimming its balance sheet at the start of October.
The Panic of 2008 was damaging in more ways than people think. Yes, there were dramatic losses for investors and homeowners, but these markets have recovered. What hasn't gone back to normal is the size and scope of Washington DC, especially the Federal Reserve. It's time for that to change.
The hits keep coming. Hurricane Harvey left destruction in its wake, and now, Hurricane Irma has Florida in its sights.
Think that title sounds familiar? It is. We've been here before. And, as before, the "debt ceiling" is a gold mine for some politicians, journalists and analysts. A possible government shutdown, or reaching a "hard" debt ceiling, are both fun for pessimists to talk about.
While the Sunday morning talk shows discuss the number of Civil War monuments that can dance on the head of a pin...and a rare Eclipse grabs focus...investors might be shocked at how the economy has accelerated.
The Trump administration took its first steps to address infrastructure Tuesday, with the president signing an executive order aiming to expedite environmental review and permitting processes. Some will decry the fact that these actions weren't accompanied by a multi trillion-dollar spending bill.
It's hard to read the business pages or watch the business news without seeing a story about the death of the consumer. In particular, the business press continues to be obsessed by relative weakness among traditional brick and mortar stores.
For many years now a relatively large contingent of analysts, investors and journalists has been convinced the stock market was in a bubble because the "Shiller P-E" ratio was just too high. Back on 8/12/2013, in our Monday Morning Outlook, we made our case that the Shiller model was too pessimistic. Now that looks like a pretty good call.
Yes, Friday's report of the Q2 real GDP growth rate was a little faster than average, but, with one exception, it remains the same Plow Horse it's been for the past eight years.
The Federal Reserve made no changes to interest rates today and made almost no changes to the text of its statement. However, the wording changes it did make strongly support our view the Fed will announce the start of balance sheet reductions at the end of its next meeting on September 20.
Since the start of the economic recovery in mid-2009, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 2.1%. The second quarter of this year doesn't look much different. Our calculations suggest real GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate in Q2, exactly the same as the consensus forecast.
At eight years, the current economic recovery is the third longest on record. Personal income, consumer spending, household assets, and net worth, are all at record highs. Stock markets are at record highs. Corporate profits are within striking distance of their all-time highs. Federal tax receipts are at record highs.
Remember the weak May payroll report – just 138,000? Didn't think so. But, back then, that first report on May was reported as a massive economic slowdown that should stop the Fed from further rate hikes.
In March 2009, the stock market started its current bull run. At first, it was a V-shaped bounce from the 2008 Panic lows after mark-to-market accounting was changed.
The Federal Reserve just finished its annual round of large bank stress tests. The banks all passed – meaning they had enough capital to withstand a massive financial shock and deep recession.
Last week the Federal Reserve hiked the federal funds rate by ¼ of a percentage point for the fourth time since December 2015. The funds rate is still below the rate of inflation, which means the Fed is still a long way from becoming tight.
The Federal Reserve did what almost everyone expected today, raising the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% - 1.25%.
While some investors are freaking out about investigations, tweets, or the personality of President Trump, we are still watching policy.
News of the consumer's death has traveled fast.
We wish we had a dollar for every time we've heard that the bull market in equities is only due to loose money. We have consistently disagreed, arguing that although the Federal Reserve is loose, the bull market is primarily a function of the rebound in profits after the disaster in 2008-09.
The most important part of today's statement from the Federal Reserve is that it thinks the slow economic growth in the first quarter is temporary. As a result, the market consensus on the odds of a rate hike by June rose to about 94% after the meeting from about 67% beforehand.
Economic data is volatile. Weather, seasonal adjustments, calendar flukes, and measurement errors all affect the data. Nonetheless, those with a political axe to grind, or an economic forecast of recession or boom, will grab one piece of data and act as if they have discovered the Holy Grail.
When the French elected François Hollande as President in 2012, the global left rejoiced. Mr. Hollande ran on a platform of protecting workers from capitalism. He wanted to raise the top income tax rate to 75%. Analysts predicted a political turn to the left across Europe, if not beyond.
As we wrote three months ago, it's going to take much more than animal spirits to lift economic growth from the sluggish pace of the past several years. Measures of consumer and business confidence continue to perform much better than before the election.
Last Friday, payroll employment data, from a survey of businesses, showed the US created just 98,000 jobs in March. The consensus of forecasters had expected job growth of 175,000. The other jobs number, which comes from a survey of households, showed 472,000 new jobs in March.
If you read us regularly, and we hope you do, you know that we write each week about a topic we think is both important and timely. Last week, we were either clairvoyant, or extremely persuasive.
Well, that was fun! The GOP's attempt to reform healthcare hit a brick wall of politics. Conservative Republicans wanted to completely "repeal" Obamacare, while moderates and leaders were willing to keep much of it as long as it cost less. Moving one way or the other lost too many votes. Democrats refused to participate. So, the bill died.
The debate over healthcare reform is in full swing, with forces aligning on all sides. From our perch, House Speaker Paul Ryan's health care bill has some appeal.
Considering that the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by a quarter point, today's Fed statement was surprisingly dovish.
