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Predicting Recession
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/12/16
Economic surveys are reflecting a higher possibility that a recession could begin in the next 12 months.

Focus on Economic Fundamentals
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 2/11/16
Adverse financial market developments have led to an overflow of bearish analyses. It is certainly dangerous to ignore market signals, but they aren’t always conclusive. There are some positive fundamentals in place that provide some reassurance around the outlook.

In Search of Solutions to Four Puzzles
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/6/16
Economic discussions in Washington this week centered on a series of puzzles that are confounding the outlook.

Do Interest Rates Know No Bounds?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/29/16
Many interest rates in Europe have been below zero for quite a while and are poised to fall further.

A "Glass-Is-Half-Full" Perspective on the Outlook
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/22/16
Growth during the current phase has been by far the weakest of the four long expansions the U.S. has enjoyed during the past 50 years. Employment gains have also lagged past precedents.

Ill Winds from the Far East
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/16/16
The new lunar year doesn't begin for another three weeks, but it can't come soon enough for China and its Asian neighbors.

A Tale of Two Economies
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 1/14/16
U.S. economic growth appears to have shifted to a lower gear in the final months of 2015. It has left many concerned about the well-being of the economy and raised questions about the Federal Reserve’s recent hike of the policy rate. In this context, it is important to note that the recent slowing reflects a lopsided development not a widespread deceleration of economic activity.

FOMC Preview: Liftoff Is Imminent, but What’s the Flight Plan?
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 1/8/16
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering next week became a “live” meeting when the Fed declined to act in September. Those who follow U.S. monetary policy have, therefore, had to stay close to their desks and stay away from the punch bowl.

Main Themes of 2015
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/21/15
As we all looked back on the past year, the word “eventful” came up often in conversation. Following are our reflections on the main events that influenced economic performance in 2015.

One Small Step
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/17/15
Seven years to the day after bringing overnight interest rates to near zero, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended what Chair Janet Yellen termed an “extraordinary period” by moving its targets up by 25 basis points.

FOMC Preview: Liftoff Is Imminent, but What’s the Flight Plan?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/11/15
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering next week became a “live” meeting when the Fed declined to act in September.

Steady Is Stellar
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 12/9/15
As we approach the end of the year, it is customary to take stock of major developments. Economic data point to continued forward momentum in the United States. All in, the economy has grown at an average pace of 2.2% during the first three quarters of the year, nearly matching the potential growth rate of the economy. The labor market is in a significantly better spot than it was at the beginning of the year. Inflation is low despite the age of the expansion.

Oil Hits a New Low
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/5/15
Oil prices remain at very low levels, defying the expectations of many analysts.

Mario Draghi: Economic Man of the Year
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/25/15
With December just around the corner, awards for full-year achievement are beginning to come out. Sport, politics and the arts are recognizing those who reached the highest heights in 2015.

Lessons from Australia and New Zealand on Debt, Immigration, and Food
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/21/15
The arc traced by Australian and New Zealand home prices is a source of broad concern. Property values in Sydney, in particular, have risen by 50% over the past 5 years. Observers from near and far fret that the line between fair value and market excess was crossed some time ago.

Germany’s Responsibility to Europe
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/13/15
Since 2008, Europe has lurched from one crisis to another. One country emerged as the figurehead for Europe during this time, leading international discussions and fighting to keep the single currency area united.

Growth Will Pick Up
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/12/15
At first blush, the economy’s growth rate in the third quarter (+1.5%) suggests a significant slowing of activity after its solid performance in the second quarter. However, doubts should be set aside, as it was largely a reduction in inventories that held back overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In fact, final sales remained strong. Headline growth should pick up as firms increase inventories in the quarters ahead.

The October Jobs Report Gives the Fed a Green Light
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/7/15
The first Friday of each month is filled with tension for those in my line of work. The U.S. employment data, arguably the most important international economic release that we receive, comes out on those days.

In Defense of 2%
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/30/15
The October release of the consumer price index (CPI) is used to set cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security recipients.

Can Household Finances Be Saved?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/23/15
While the data suggest that Americans may be saving more than we thought, most aren’t saving nearly enough.

Global Economic Outlook - October 2015
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Victoria Marklew, Ieisha Montgomery, Marshall Birkey, Ben Trinder of Northern Trust, 10/22/15
It has been a challenging interval for the world economy. The summer saw challenges in Greece, heightened uncertainty over China and renewed concern over emerging markets. At its recent meetings, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further downgraded its outlook for global growth.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 10/17/15
Wealth Has Different Effects in Different Places; Our Good Fortune with Health Care Costs May Soon End; The Nobel Prize Rewards Digging into the Details

Europe's Immigrants May Solve Native Problems
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/10/15
The aging of Europe's postwar generation has placed the working-age population on a downward trajectory.

Facts and Fear
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 10/9/15
The economic headlines have been somewhat disappointing over the past few weeks. First, the Federal Reserve failed to raise interest rates in September, partly out of fear that global conditions were eroding. Congress seems headed for another senseless impasse over the debt ceiling. Emerging markets are feeling added pressure. And some think the U.S. job engine has shifted into a lower gear.

The U.S. Starts a Challenging Fiscal Year
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/3/15
The budget battles that rage at this point on the calendar illustrate the myopia and dysfunction of the American legislative process.

In Search of the Phillips Curve
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/25/15
Macroeconomics students spend a good bit of class time learning about the Phillips curve, and it is probably etched permanently in their minds. The Phillips curve suggests that there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run.

Upon Further Review: More Reflections on the Fed
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/19/15
The Federal Reserve has typically downplayed market expectations of inflation. These indicators emerge from trading in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which can be influenced by many things.

The Fed Holds
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/18/15
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its meeting today with no change in interest rates.

FOMC Preview: First, Do No Harm
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/15/15
Next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is one of the more highly anticipated central bank sessions in years. A couple of months ago, the policy decision that will emerge next Thursday afternoon seemed clear.

The U.S. Economy Is Not Holding Back the Fed
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/10/15
The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee meets next week, and there is more uneasiness than usual surrounding the event. Much has changed in the past few weeks, and the Fed’s likely course of action is being examined from a multitude of angles.

Will Unsettled Markets Unsettle the Federal Reserve?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/4/15
The question of how events in the Far East will affect the Fed has come up frequently in recent conversations. At the outset, it should be noted that central banks do not center their policies on the levels of asset markets or the level of volatility.

If China Lands Hard, It Won’t Be Alone
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/28/15
The news from China has been volatile and disconcerting. There is a general sense that the carnage would be far worse if not for active intervention from Chinese authorities.

Trying to Restore Order
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/27/15
It has been an unsettling month for the financial markets. The challenges faced by China, which have been amplified by inconsistent responses from policy makers, have heightened uncertainty.

Was the Euro a Good Idea?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/21/15
The creation of the euro was done for political reasons; as long as it is politically less costly for its members than the alternatives, the euro is here to stay.

China Breaks into a New Range
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/14/15
For some time, analysts have suspected that China’s economic performance was trending well below targeted levels. The equity market correction that began earlier this summer seemed to confirm these concerns; only a substantial amount of official intervention prevented an outright crash. Now we can add exchange-rate uncertainty to the list of things that China will have to manage very carefully.

Is the United States Insulated from China’s Economic Distress?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/7/15
The Chinese economic slowdown, following decades of spectacular growth, is more than noticeable now. Also, the world is watching the recent turbulence in Chinese equity markets closely. These developments have triggered many questions. We address the most popular query in our inbox: What are the potential spillovers to the United States from weaker growth in China?

Fear of the Fed Is Rising
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ben Trinder of Northern Trust, 8/2/15
My youngest daughter has an acute case of arachnophobia; even the tiniest spider sets her off. When a daddy longlegs appeared in the bathroom of a vacation home we were renting, she covered herself in the shower curtain and ran straight out the front door. It’s gotten so bad that the mere mention of a spider upsets her; the fear is almost worse than the reality

Should We Offer More Help to Homeowners?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/25/15
• Should We Offer More Help to Homeowners? • The Dodd-Frank Act Observes Its Fifth Anniversary • Canada Looks South for Economic Support

Global Economic Outlook
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/22/15
Economists and the financial markets have been almost exclusively focused on events in Greece and China over the past several months. These situations merited attention but pushed more-positive economic developments into the background.

Europe Needs to Form a More-Perfect Union
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/17/15
Mario Draghi, ECB president, observed this week that Europe is an imperfect union. Flaws and gaps in treaties must be filled by trust among members. Having failed to follow the dictates of past bailout programs, the Greeks lost the trust of their eurozone partners and will now be subject to very close fiscal oversight.

Themes from the First Half of 2015 and Questions for the Second Half
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/11/15
The weekly commentary is a review of current activity in global financial markets, with an emphasis on the U.S. fixed income market.

Greece: Closer to the Brink
by Carl Tannenbaum, Victoria Marklew of Northern Trust, 7/9/15
Greek voters declared an overwhelming “no” on Sunday – by a margin of 61% to 39%. Whether they were rejecting the notion of reform for aid or perceived German bullying is not clear, but the message to the rest of Europe was clear.

Greek Default is Everyone’s Fault
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/2/15
We do not expect widespread global contagion, but reducing the risk of this outcome will require renewed cooperation between Greece and its creditors. They created the problem together, and neither side can claim the high ground. It is about time that they came back down to earth and worked this thing out.

The Greek Saga Escalates
by Carl Tannenbaum, Victoria Marklew of Northern Trust, 7/1/15
The situation in Greece has taken some unexpected turns over the past several days, commanding the lion’s share of the market’s attention ever since. Following are answers to the questions we are being asked most frequently about the situation.

High Drama for the Hellenic Republic
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/27/15
Hard realities and hardened positions are combining to create a dangerous game of financial chicken between Greece and its creditors. We can only hope they avoid a headlong collision that could create a lot of collateral damage.

Federal Reserve, Abenomics, Trans-Pacific Partnership
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/19/15
Central banks around the world have held interest rates at or near zero for quite a while. This action was justified in the wake of the financial crisis. But there are those who think that zero, in this setting, has become a dangerous concept.

Are We Mismeasuring the Economy?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/12/15
The problem may not be with growth but rather the way we measure it.

America Is Woefully Unprepared for Retirement
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/5/15
Solutions are elusive. We cannot turn back the clock and increase our saving rates or invest with the benefit of hindsight. But from here forward, we need to take a hard look at the structure of public and private retirement systems and reinforce financial literacy among beneficiaries.

Reflections From a Whirlwind Tour of Asia
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/31/15
Reflections From a Whirlwind Tour of Asia; Roads and Ports are Pathways to U.S. Prosperity

Can Emerging Markets Survive Lower Commodity Prices?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/23/15
Can Emerging Markets Survive Lower Commodity Prices?; Some Central Banks Are Playing the Market; Australia – Real Estate Is Too Frothy for Regulator’s Tastes
Results 501–550 of 656 found.