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The Difficult Transition to Democracy
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 2/27/13
The Arab Spring has turned into something of a disappointment. In Tunisia, the recent assassination of Shokri Belaid, a secularist opposition leader, has increased tensions. S&P recently downgraded the countrys sovereign risk due to rising political turmoil. In Egypt, protests have returned, this time against the Muslim Brotherhood-led government. Yemen remains in chaos. Syria is essentially in a civil war. Unrest continues in Bahrain but the minority Sunni leadership remains entrenched, mostly due to military support from Saudi Arabia.

The 2030 Most Likely Best Case Scenario
by Bill O'Grady Kaisa Stucke of Confluence Investment Management, 2/20/13
Two weeks ago we started looking at the 2030 alternative world development scenarios as laid out by the National Intelligence Council (NIC). The NIC forecasts the likely paths that are either currently underway or are forecast to occur in the future. In its most recent report, the NIC projects four possible global political and economic states based on these expected trends. Last time, we presented the most likely worst case scenario. This week, we will explore the most likely best case scenario.

Iran's Blues
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 2/12/13
When the last U.S. troops officially left Iraq on December 17, 2011, it seemed Iran was the big winner. Iraq was being ruled by a Shiite coalition. Its military was weak and no longer a threat to Iran. Along with its ally in Syria and its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, there was growing talk of a "Shiite Arc" that ran from Iran to the Mediterranean Sea. Although Western sanctions were in place, Iran had become adept in working around them.

The 2030 Outlook
by Bill O'Grady, Kaisa Stucke of Confluence Investment Management, 2/5/13
Over the next several weeks we will look into the more distant future, to the year 2030. We will explore the long-term strategic alternative world development scenarios as laid out by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and present our views regarding the developments. The NIC forecasts the likely paths that are either currently underway or are forecast to occur in the future. The NIC projects four possible global political and economic states based on these expected trends.

The Complicated Case of Mali
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 1/30/13
On January 11, 2013, French President Francois Hollande announced the French military was intervening in Mali at the request of the government. The Mali military was reeling in the face of jihadist rebels from the north who were making rapid inroads toward the south. Although the U.N. Security Council had authorized an African-led military intervention in Mali to contain the rebels, it had been ineffective. Thus, France "piggybacked" off that resolution to justify its intervention.

Japan: Tip of the Spear
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 1/15/13
On Sunday, December 16, 2012, Shinzo Abe, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led his coalition to a decisive electoral victory in Japan. The LDP won 294 out of 480 seats and, with the additional 29 seats captured by its coalition partner, the New Komeito Party, will control the lower house in the Japanese Diet. Abe was named the new prime minister ten days later.

The 2013 Geopolitical Outlook
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 12/18/12
As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the coming year. This list is not designed to be exhaustive. As is often the case, a myriad of potential problems in the world could become issues in the coming year. The lineup listed below details, in our opinion, the issues most likely to have the greatest impact on the world. However, we do recognize the potential for surprises which we will discuss throughout the year in the weekly reports.

The Muslim Brotherhood Consolidates Power
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 12/11/12
On November 22nd, Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi issued a decree that effectively gave him unchecked power. The decree allowed him to unilaterally legislate without oversight by the judiciary. This action clearly rattled those opposed to the president and his political party. Demonstrations ensued and there were numerous threats from the judiciary to obstruct the president's newly declared power.

Meet the New Boss
by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 12/6/12
On November 14th, the new Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) was unveiled. The composition of this new group had been anxiously awaited for months. Although most of the members (all men, by the way) had been anticipated, there were some surprises. This committee is the most powerful group in China; it is essentially the legislative and executive branch of the country. And, given that the judiciary is not really independent, the PSC effectively rules China.

Syria: The Problem of Intervention
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 11/20/12
The situation in Syria continues to deteriorate. The rebels, though divided, are acquiring heavy weapons (there have been reports they have some tanks), mostly by taking them from the regime. Apparently, the rebels are also attracting former soldiers who can operate such weapons. Still, there is nothing to suggest that either side is about to dominate the other and so the current civil conflict will likely continue.

Scotland: The Same, Only Better?
by Bill O'Grady, Kaisa Stucke of Confluence Investment Management, 11/13/12
As the Eurozone countries are trying to find the functional balance between national sovereignty and Eurozone-wide central control on the national level, fractures are also appearing within the nation states themselves. Additionally, the Northern European countries are questioning the extent to which they should be expected to bail out the Southern countries, while the wealthier regions of the nation states reason that they would be more efficient in managing their internal fiscal budgets.

The Foreign Policy Choice
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 11/5/12
Tomorrow is Election Day. After months of campaigning and hours of watching insipid political commercials, the time to decide is upon us.

A Bombing in Lebanon
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 10/30/12
The larger issue is related to Syria's civil war and the growing potential for the conflict to regionalize. In this report, we will offer a short history of Lebanon and Syria, examine the current state of the conflict in Syria and discuss the potential for the Syrian civil war to become a regional conflict. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

The Little Country That Could
by Bill O'Grady, Kaisa Stucke of Confluence Investment Management, 10/22/12
In this geopolitical report we will take a brief look at Estonia's history, its economy after the break-up of the Soviet Union, its remarkable economic growth in the 1990s and early 2000s, and the ensuing downturn in 2008. The country stands out for choosing a different path to deal with the recession than many other European countries.

Bibi Blinks
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 10/9/12
On September 27th, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech before the U.N. General Assembly. Although it will be best remembered for his "looney toons" prop of a cardboard bomb which he used to describe when Iran crosses the "red line" (which, appropriately enough, was drawn on the bomb with a red marker), the real story of the speech was his apparent climb down from pressing for an attack on Iran.

Lessons from Scandinavia
by Kaisa Stucke, Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 10/2/12
During the late 1980s and early 1990s, Scandinavian nations suffered through balance sheet recessions. Commentators have suggested that U.S. policymakers could use the Scandinavian response to their crises as a roadmap for resolving the current U.S. situation. As part of our own analysis, we have studied several earlier events to understand the underlying similarities and differences to develop insights into the current event.

Echoes of the Arab Spring
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 9/24/12
In this report, we will discuss the issue of American foreign policy, democracy and the emerging world. Our primary focus will be on the Arab states. From there, we will examine the particular issues of democratization and regime change for a few selected nations in the Middle East. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

The 9/11 Lessons for Terrorists
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 9/17/12
In this report, we will outline potential lessons learned over the past 11 years by terrorist groups. By doing this, we hope to outline how terrorists might act in the future. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

The Problem of Proxies
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 9/11/12
In this report, we will discuss the role of proxies and their use by governments, including a historical perspective of their positive and negative aspects. A short discussion of the regional factors of the Syrian situation will follow, focusing primarily on Iran's problem if the Assad regime is replaced by a Sunni-led government. Interestingly enough, these regional factors also affect the proxy groups, making them more difficult for their sponsors to control.

Israel and the Evangelicals
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 8/28/12
On several occasions, we have noted that Israel enjoys significant leverage over U.S. policy into the November elections. Often, it is assumed that this leverage comes from the influence of American Jews on the political system. Although not unimportant, the numbers, as discussed here, suggest that the Jewish vote is barely significant in only two states, New York and Florida. Even in these two states, capturing all the Jewish voters would not guarantee winning these states.

The Muslim Brotherhoods Long Grind
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 8/21/12
Over the past two weeks, there has been an upswing in violence in the Sinai Peninsula. Last week, Egyptian President Morsi announced the forced retirement of several military leaders, the same men who ran the government after the ouster of the former president, Hosni Mubarak. It isn't completely clear that the two incidents are related, although it does appear that Morsi used the unrest in the Sinai as a way to remove the remnant Mubarak cronies.

The Eurozone Drama Continues
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 8/14/12
In this report, we will review the political and economic structure of the Eurozone. From there, we will discuss the critical event that caused the reversal in safety assets and what this reversal likely means for the geopolitics of the Eurozone. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

The Complicated Kurds
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 8/7/12
Last week, the Syrian Army withdrew from Kurdish areas in the northeastern parts of the country. Kurdish militant groups took over patrolling the area; more importantly, they took control of the border crossings. In this report, we will offer a short history of the Kurds, focusing on the problems they have encountered as a significant minority in four countries. There will be a discussion of the tyranny of colonial borders along with a projection of the longevity of these border arrangements.

The Young General Emerges
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 7/31/12
On July 16th, the official North Korean media reported that General Ri Yong Ho, the militarys Chief of the General Staff, had been dismissed of all duties. Reports suggested that the general had been removed due to illness. General Ri was a close confidant of the late Kim Jong Il and was thought to be tasked with smoothing the transition of the new leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un, the Young General. Ri's exit, along with other events, suggests changes in the Hermit Kingdom.

Escalation in the Middle East
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 7/26/12
Last week, the fighting in Syria escalated, with the Free Syrian Army, the rebel umbrella group, announcing an attack on Syrias capital, Damascus. Reports indicate that Alawites are starting to flee Damascus for sectarian strongholds on the coast. This information follows the news that the rebels successfully bombed a Syrian intelligence and security facility, killing at least four major figures within the Assad regimes security apparatus.

The Mystery of Chinese Capital Flight
by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 7/17/12
Capital flight is defined as the rapid withdrawal of assets out of a country for political, economic or geopolitical reasons. Since late last year, there have been steady reports indicating that capital flight has been occurring in China. China restricts its capital account; inflows of foreign capital are carefully regulated and private outflows face significant restrictions. Chinese citizens can legally transfer only $50k per year out of the country.

The 2012 Mid-Year Geopolitical Update
by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 7/3/12
As is our custom, we use this early July report to offer our outlook for the next six months. In this issue, we will discuss what we see as the key geopolitical issues that will affect the markets for the rest of 2012. This list is not exhaustive but highlights our greatest concerns.

The Counterrevolution in Egypt
by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 6/28/12
In this report we will begin with a geopolitical history of Egypt, concentrating on the unique geography that has historically shaped its governance. We will discuss the role of the military in Egyptian political life, focusing on its self-perception and its goals. We will also detail the role of the MB as an organized political group in the country. Following this analysis, we will offer our forecast for Egypt and its potential effects on the region.

Syria: Descent into Civil War
by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 6/19/12
In March of last year, small scale protests began in Syria. As protests spread, the response escalated to the point where now it appears Syria may be on the brink of a civil conflict. In this report we will begin with a geopolitical history of the country. Following this analysis, we will describe current conditions and our concerns about the breakdown of social order in Syria, concluding with a summary of how outside powers are trying to manage the direction of any changes in Syria.

Rising Tensions in the South China Sea
by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 6/19/12
Right now, the most critical geopolitical risk to the financial markets remains Europe, with the Persian Gulf probably the second most important concern. However, there is value in analyzing situations which may become problematic, even if it is in the distant future. By doing so, it allows investors to become aware of potential situations long before they become issues. We believe it is better to have some familiarity with geopolitical concerns in advance of any major problems.

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2024)
by Team of Confluence Investment Management, 9/1/01

We preserve an allocation to gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks, with an allocation to silver where risk appropriate.
Results 251–281 of 281 found.