Commentary

Asset Allocation Quarterly: 2nd Quarter 2025

Uncertainty surrounding trade policy is a key driver of our forecast this quarter, which includes an increased probability of a recession.

Commentary

From Magnificent 7 to European Revival

2025 has marked a striking reversal, with European stocks delivering exceptional returns that have handily surpassed US market performance.

Commentary

Asset Allocation Biweekly: Managing an Economic Slowdown

An early-term recession, though difficult, can create strategic opportunities to push a bold and transformative agenda forward.

Commentary

Equities as an Inflation Hedge?

A time-honored belief holds that inflation is bad for stocks, but recent developments may be challenging this view.

Commentary

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly: Tackling Long-Term Interest Rates

In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee February 12, Federal Reserve Chair Powell was questioned about why mortgage rates had not declined.

Commentary

Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)

In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.

Commentary

American Exceptionalism and the Markets

We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.

Commentary

Magnificent 7 to the Rescue!

Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.

Commentary

The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2025

Even for dedicated investors, Social Security retirement benefits can be an important part of their financial security.

Commentary

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Yield Curve Un-Inverts (October 14, 2024)

The yield curve indicates that US economic growth has slowed, with only limited signs that the economy could be heading into a broad decline.

Commentary

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Is the Sahm Rule Right?

The “Sahm Rule,” a widely used metric for determining the early stages of recession, was triggered in July.

Commentary

The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part II

In Part II, we discuss the reasons for the breakdown of the order prior to President Trump and follow this discussion with the impact of the current president. We project the likely actions of the nations in the region and, as always, conclude with market ramifications.

Commentary

The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part I

In past reports we have discussed America’s evolving hegemony, noting that America’s hegemonic narrative centered on containing communism which united Americans to accept the burden of the superpower role.

Commentary

The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part II

In Part II, we explain why Japanese-Korean hostilities have suddenly broken out into the open again and conclude by discussing the implications of the dispute for the countries’ economies and for investors.

Commentary

The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part I

The press has been reporting on a trade spat between Japan and South Korea, ostensibly tied to South Korean anger over Japan’s behavior in the runup to World War II. The dispute is only the latest chapter in a long history of conflict between Korea and Japan.