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Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/21/13
Global deleveraging has a long way to go. Fiscal drama and the economy. Funding for economic statistics needs to be enhanced

FOMC Preview: Taper Likely To Be Deferred or Minimal
by Team of Northern Trust, 9/16/13
Market participants have been working overtime to refine their expectations of what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might do at its meeting next week. Many are calling for a cut in the Feds pace of asset purchases from the current level of $85 billion per month.

Waiting for Clarity From the Fed and Congress
by Team of Northern Trust, 9/13/13
U.S. economic growth averaged roughly 2.0% in the first half of the year and the average gain of real gross domestic product (GDP) during the entire 16-quarter economic recovery is 2.2%. Real GDP is projected to grow close to this trend in the second half of the year.

The View from Here - September 13, 2013: Five Years After
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/13/13
How much have we recovered from the global financial crisis?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/6/13
Manufacturing surveys are upbeat, but should we trust them? The August employment report leaves lots of room for improvement.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/30/13
Global policy-makers increasingly at odds with one another. Foreign exchange reserves may hold key to stabilizing emerging markets. Geopolitics weigh heavily on energy markets.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/23/13
India: Broken promise or temporary hiccup? Bond markets appear unmoved by central bank guidance. Rising mortgage rates are taking some of the steam out of housing.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust, 8/16/13
The speculation about Fed leadership has gone too far. Eurozone growth should be placed in perspective. The velocity of money may turn around soon.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/9/13
The global productivity "bust" is largely cyclical. The Bank of England tries forward guidance. Will low labor force participation keep the Fed from tapering?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust, 8/5/13
July U.S. employment report a bit disappointing. Part-time employment gains are not uniform across nations. Affordable Care Act and small business employment.

Fed in Watch-and-Wait Mode
by Team of Northern Trust, 8/1/13
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today held unchanged its current asset purchase program of $85 billion per month. The Federal Reserve avoided providing new nuances to existing forward guidance and re-issued the June policy statement with minor modifications to reflect recent economic developments.

Global Economic Outlook
by Team of Northern Trust, 7/29/13
Growth is expected to improve in the United States and the United Kingdom while disappointing in Europe.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/26/13
Income inequality is rising, but its not clear what to do about it. Brazils struggles come at a delicate time. Detroits road to bankruptcy does not set a path for others to follow.

The View From Here
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/26/13
Despite the advance of college savings accounts, many families are ill-prepared to pay for school.

Perspective
by Jim McDonald of Northern Trust, 7/25/13
Investors have faced a torrent of central bank actions and communications during the last month, and markets continue to differentiate among economies and companies a welcome maturation from the markets? prior regime of ?risk on/risk off.? We believe the Federal Reserve has moved from an easing bias to one of tightening but at an elongated pace that will remain data dependent. Joining in this parsimony are some key emerging-market central banks, including the People?s Bank of China, which is working to control credit risk in the Chinese economy.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust, 7/19/13
The years first half included some big surprises. U.S. wage and salary growth sets the stage for stronger consumption. Dont be discouraged by the most recent housing report.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust, 7/12/13
The view of Spains economy from the ground is no prettier than it is from distance. Not all forward guidance is created equal. Chinas suspension of key economic data raises, not quells, concern.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/5/13
The odds of a September tapering have increased but are conditional on labor market conditions continuing to evolve at least as favorably as viewed at the present time. The important caveat is that the Feds forward guidance has stressed the importance of improvements in the outlook of the labor market and inflation to consider tapering, which implies that economic data between now and the September FOMC meeting will play an important role in the timing of tapering of asset purchases.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust, 6/28/13
Small businesses may hold the key to better economic growth. Chinese officials are trying to curb financial excess. There are a number of ways to reach 7% U.S. unemployment.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust, 6/21/13
Today, the relative health of banks around the world goes a long way toward explaining differences in economic fortunes. As policy-makers seek ways to improve growth, addressing structural issues in their financial systems may be more effective than monetary or fiscal stimulus.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust, 6/14/13
For 13 days of every fortnight, my kids think that "floor" and "hamper" are synonyms. Stray shoes litter the entryway, used cups adorn the coffee table and spent contact lens packaging forms a grand pyramid on the bathroom vanity.

Securing a Lasting Economic Recovery
by Team of Northern Trust, 6/13/13
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, business expansions have averaged 59 months in the past 11 business cycles. June 2013 marks the fourth birthday of the current U.S. economic recovery, and this one seems very likely to be above average on this score.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/7/13
The change at the top of the Bank of England comes at a delicate time. The May U.S. employment report will not sway the Fed either way. Eurozone and China PMI reports - interpret with caution.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/31/13
Is central bank communication clarifying or confusing? The European Central Bank should focus its efforts on small business lending. A look beneath the surface of housing proves revealing.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/24/13
The two Asian giants have a challenging year ahead. The Fed will be challenged to keep the bond market under control.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust, 5/17/13
Predictions of an American manufacturing renaissance may be premature. Does the Fed have to worry about deflation? The U.S. fiscal deficit is narrowing rapidly.

Countries Should Be Careful Not to Overstimulate Their Housing Markets
by Team of Northern Trust, 5/10/13
Countries should be careful not to overstimulate their housing markets. Credit extension is improving, but remains modest.

The U.S. Economy Stands to Gain from Actions of Central Banks
by Team of Northern Trust, 5/10/13
Recent central bank meetings have resulted in a reiteration of accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and new initiatives from its counterparts overseas.

Job Creation May Be More Robust Than Official Statistics Suggest.
by Team of Northern Trust, 5/3/13
Job creation may be more robust than official statistics suggest; U.S. employment situation; Central bank meetings

The Yin and the Yang of Commodity Price Trends
by Team of Northern Trust, 4/26/13
In recent weeks, financial press headlines have centered on the sharp drop in the price of gold. Of greater importance, however, are the significant price declines of oil, wheat, corn and copper. The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is down 6.1% year-to-date after a nearly steady reading in 2012 and gains exceeding 20% in both 2010 and 2011. It is essential to recognize the different nuances buried in these commodities price trends. First we will focus on the implications of declining commodity price trends and then discuss gold specifically in more depth.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/19/13
The worlds public debt is much larger than it may appear. The lines have been drawn in the U.S. budget debate. Rates of disability are affecting labor force participation.

What's Driving Emerging Markets?
by James McDonald, Daniel Phillips, Phillip Grant of Northern Trust, 4/17/13
Emerging market (EM) equities have historically outperformed as the global economy gained momentum, as shown in Exhibit 1. After a great catch-up rally in the second half of 2012, the stocks finished the year as global outperformers only to lose that momentum in the first quarter of 2013. What is behind the recent underperformance, and what does it say about the outlook? Our research points to a number of contributors to the recent weakness.

Everyone Wants More Financial Stability, But at What Cost?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/12/13
For all the good intentions, there is no guarantee that the rush to re-regulate will be successful. The next crisis may look nothing like the one just past, and the political will to take tough preventative steps during good times cannot be taken for granted.

This Week's Central Bank Meetings Revealed a Range of Behavior
by Team of Northern Trust, 4/5/13
This weeks central bank meeting revealed a range of behavior. The U.S. employment report fell well short of expectations. Does China have a property bubble?

Learnings From the Cyprus Saga
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/29/13
There are important differences between the situation in Cyprus and the challenges other southern European nations face that should limit the transfer of financial trauma. The hope remains that the ECBs promise to do whatever it takes to solve the sovereign debt crisis will ultimately settle markets. But access to certain types of ECB support requires reaching agreement on restructuring with the same European officials who have handled the situation in Cyprus so maladroitly.

The Success of Central Bank Policy Is Not Measured By The Revenue It Generates
by Team of Northern Trust, 3/22/13
The success of central bank policy is not measured by the revenue it generates. Cyprus is a small country that could cast a long shadow. The U.S. dollars fortune is changing

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/15/13
Despite exceptionally easy monetary policy, inflation risk remains low. Record stock market levels are boosting consumer spending. U.S. capital spending is poised to be a bright spot this year.

Labor Policy Needs to Help, Not Hinder Employment.
by Team of Northern Trust, 3/8/13
Labor policy needs to help, not hinder employment. The U.S. employment report surprised on the upside. Watch the shadows behind China's official credit measures

There Are More Sellers Than Buyers in the World Economy.
by Team of Northern Trust, 3/1/13
There are more sellers than buyers in the world economy. The recent Italian election may usher in renewed instability. US bank lending is finally expanding, but not everyone is happy about it.

Central Banks Are Factoring Financial Stability into Their Decision Making
by Team of Northern Trust, 2/22/13
Central banks are factoring financial stability into their decision making. The FOMC is taking a critical look at its asset purchase strategy. Don't look now, but the sequester is coming.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/16/13
The recent energy dividend is not likely to last. Crafting a single monetary policy for Europe is challenging.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust, 2/8/13
Immigration reform would help the US economy at many levels. There is much going on with the US labor force participation rate. Will leadership change usher in a new era at the Bank of Japan?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust, 2/1/13
Is the world engaged in a currency war? Januarys job report had some pleasant surprises, but more progress is needed. Purchasing managers surveys suggest growth in the US, retreat for Europe

Housing Is Off the Floor, But Faces Ceilings.
by Team of Northern Trust, 1/25/13
Housing is off the floor, but faces ceilings. The cost of housing could be a source of increased inflation. January's FOMC meeting should not break any new ground.

Are Central Banks Easing Off Prematurely?
by Team of Northern Trust, 1/18/13
Are central banks easing off prematurely? Washington is girding for another budget imbroglio; Inflation is contained, for now.

Special Edition: The Outlook for 2013
by Team of Northern Trust, 1/11/13
At this time of the year we typically get warm and generous wishes for the New Year and, of course, numerous questions about what our crystal ball has in store for 2013. While many economists publish their perspectives prior to January 1, we opted to wait in the hope of having a clear fiscal picture for the United States. A lot of good that did us...

The US Congress Kicked the Fiscal Cliff Down the Road
by Team of Northern Trust, 1/4/13
The US Congress kicked the fiscal cliff down the road. Holiday sales in the US were tepid. December's job report will not impress the Fed

Some Non-Economic Thoughts for the Holidays
by Team of Northern Trust, 12/21/12
This past Wednesday, I took a short break from following the fiscal cliff saga. I was getting frustrated trying to sort out plan A, plan B, and plan C. I needed to put some distance between myself and the Federal budget, at least for a little while.

Fiscal Friction is Taking a Toll on Confidence in Washington and Rome
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/14/12
Fiscal friction is taking a toll on confidence in Washington and Rome. What inflation rate should be used to index entitlements? Our updated US forecast assumes a budget resolution before year end.

FOMC: More of the Same on QE, But New Language to Guide It
by Team of Northern Trust, 12/13/12
The Fed's decision to increase the scope and size of the quantitative easing program following the two-day FOMC meeting was largely expected. Its choice of new wording to express its posture came sooner than expected.
Results 1,251–1,300 of 1,462 found.