The first few years of the 2020s have seen a number of acute economic, financial, and geopolitical disruptions on a worldwide scale, and it will take time for the ultimate consequences of these shocks to be fully felt.
An in-depth analysis of hedge fund performance demonstrates that, over the past 15 years, lower-beta hedge fund styles have generally achieved higher alpha, aligning with investors' objectives of maximizing returns and diversification.
Despite economic uncertainty, we see compelling value in high-quality, liquid assets that we view as more resilient in the face of a potential recession.
Although affordability remains an obstacle, recent data offer reasons to be more constructive as broader conditions still appear supportive of home prices.
An allocation to fixed income may help investors navigate a potential recession as well as uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.
Higher bond yields and improved total return potential may offer advisors a compelling opportunity to move cash off the sidelines.
March inflation data may put the Federal Reserve close to its terminal policy rate this cycle, if it hasn’t already reached it.
History suggests the lagged economic effects of tighter central bank policy are arriving on schedule, but any eventual normalizing or even easing of policy will still likely require inflation to decline further.
Slower credit growth may curtail broader U.S. economic growth, taking pressure off the Federal Reserve.
In a dovish move, the central bank raises rates by half a point.
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
Strength in employment and inflation has caused markets to raise the implied terminal rate while still expecting the Fed to normalize policy – which is different from easing – in 2024.
Bond markets are pricing in additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, acknowledging the central bank’s emphatic resolve to tame inflation despite the likely trade-offs.
U.S. inflation may not be moderating as quickly as many were expecting.
After withstanding a multitude of global challenges last year, emerging markets look poised for improvement as inflation recedes and the path of monetary policy comes into view.
The European Central Bank raised its policy rate, and more hikes are coming.
Investors face mixed signals between the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance and recent economic developments.
As investors seek to pinpoint market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, it’s critical to consider not just rate projections and derivatives pricing, but the degree of uncertainty and distribution of outcomes.
Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
The European Central Bank is likely to continue hiking rates next year, but the end point remains uncertain.
Falling prices for cars and holiday discounting contributed to softer U.S. inflation, creating more room for the Fed to potentially dial back its hawkish stance.
A multi-real-asset strategy may help plan participants preserve and grow purchasing power, enhance portfolio diversification, and mitigate inflation risks.
How we’re thinking about investing against a backdrop of inflation uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and likely recession.
A split U.S. Congress in 2023 will likely limit fiscal policy, but could be positive for equity markets.
With interest rates higher amid a challenging macro environment, we see a compelling case for bond allocations and are cautious about higher-risk investments.
Core inflation came in below expectations for October and should moderate in 2023, but likely with bumps in the road ahead.
Inflation is receding and real interest rates are climbing in EM after a year of tightening monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve’s November statement included dovish language, but Fed Chair Powell warned investors not to expect the Fed to stray from its full focus on fighting inflation.
The central bank noted that substantial progress has been made in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation, and expressed concerns around growth and policy transmission lags.
Core inflation in the U.S. outpaced expectations for September and may fortify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish resolve.
The OPEC+ plan to curb oil production complicates the global economic, inflation, and geopolitical outlook and will likely lead to higher prices for key commodities.
This is a critical time for investors and policymakers alike.
U.K. financial market volatility is likely to remain high, and the longer-term outlook likely depends on future monetary and fiscal policy.
The Federal Reserve released new economic projections suggesting interest rate hikes will be faster and larger than previously forecast.
We believe short-dated bonds can offer attractive yields, flexibility, and a means to proceed cautiously as central banks continue to raise interest rates.
The Federal Reserve may be pressured to target a higher terminal fed funds rate as it seeks to tame U.S. inflation expectations following strong price rises in August.
Widening participation in the Fed’s standing repo facility and bond buying programs could mitigate another liquidity crisis in the Treasury market.
Emerging market valuations appear attractive, but country-specific risks can be critical to monitor amid global inflation and rising interest rates.
In Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve officials unequivocally emphasized their commitment to bringing inflation under control – even as the U.S. economy slows.
The value of completion mandates for defined benefit plans depends on the stage of the de-risking journey.
The market contraction presents better opportunities than we’ve seen in years to generate income, which we balance against the need for resilience in the face of a potential recession.
As the European Central Bank leaves negative policy rates behind, attractive valuations herald a much-improved total return potential.
PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board discusses the longer-term outlook for geopolitics, inflation, and other macro themes.
Despite price declines in many sectors, the Federal Reserve may continue its hawkish approach.
The Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to price stability, hiking its policy rate 75 basis points again and signaling more tightening to come.
Renewed growth in China’s manufacturing activity, coupled with softening developed market demand, should ease some supply-side pressures – but several other inflation risks remain prevalent.
June’s U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation data likely set alarms blaring in the minds of Federal Reserve officials.
June’s U.S. inflation data will likely force central bankers into more restrictive territory – raising the odds of recession.
Amid stormy markets, senior securitized credits hold potential for resilient returns.