Uncertainty remains high, but so are bond yields, leading to attractive opportunities for active investors, in our view.
The degree to which growth in Europe slows, along with inflation developments, will be key in determining the path ahead for the European Central Bank.
Investors enjoyed broad gains across major asset classes in the first half of this year, but they endured considerable market swings to earn those returns.
In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.
In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.
As direct lending matures and other private credit areas expand, active investors can apply relative value strategies across sectors – and even entire markets – to pursue enhanced outcomes.
Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.
Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida explains where yields may be headed, as well as positioning considerations for the long-run by charting the relationship between r* and term premium.
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in June, as widely expected, but revisions to its economic projections indicate a more uncertain outlook.
New strategies, shifting flows, and innovative technologies are driving a more dynamic and diversified marketplace in fixed income ETFs.
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
Kristofer Kraus, portfolio manager and co-lead of PIMCO’s asset-based finance business, charts the nuances behind the overall resilience of U.S. consumers – and explains how these insights shape lending and investment strategies.
A rushed exit from conservatorship could increase mortgage rates and worsen home affordability.
We maintain a focus on resiliency as elevated yields within high quality fixed income continue to offer attractive opportunities.
Fed officials remain patient, likely awaiting hard evidence of a weaker U.S. labor market before considering rate cuts.
Sustainable adjustments to trade imbalances require supportive monetary and fiscal policies – not just currency intervention.
Although President Trump has said he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell, the Trump administration may be testing the laws underpinning Fed independence.
Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida shares three charts highlighting possible macro inflection points in the business cycle: from growth and inflation to debt and labor.
A historic sell-off enhances value, with high yields, strong fundamentals, and ample reserves mitigating policy risks.
U.S. trade policy has evolved significantly in a matter of weeks.
Rapid U.S. policy changes pose challenges for investors accustomed to a global financial system anchored in U.S. markets and assets.
With Congress out for the next two weeks for Easter recess and a short trading week in New York, it should be a quieter week – though tariff-related news continues to capture headlines.
On 9 April, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the higher “add-on” reciprocal tariffs on 50-plus countries that had been announced the previous week, precipitating a historic equity market rally and showing that there was seemingly a limit to how far he would go to move forward with his trade agenda.
On 2 April, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs that were more aggressive than many had expected. Then on 9 April, the administration announced a 90-day pause on most of the new country-specific “reciprocal tariffs.”
While the path may have twists and turns, the destination seems clear; higher U.S. tariffs.
The world has entered a period of geopolitical uncertainty, with the U.S. now at the center of the storm.
At their March meeting, Federal Reserve officials left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5% and signaled further patience on rate cuts as they navigate greater uncertainty about the economic outlook.
The European Central Bank will likely continue to cut interest rates, but future decisions could be more contentious.
Attractive yields and a broad opportunity set bolster active bond investments amid today’s uncertain macroeconomic and market outlook.
Lofty U.S. stock valuations call for a renewed focus on risk assessment and portfolio diversification.
It is not just tariffs that might affect inflation and growth but also trade uncertainty and the effects of the ambitious Trump policy agenda.
Exploring the delicate balance between protectionism and global cooperation
Despite still elevated domestic inflation, weak growth and inflation projected at target this year strengthen the case for further rate cuts.
Facing an uncertain outlook, the Federal Reserve holds rates steady and signals a watch-and-wait approach.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Macroeconomic uncertainties prompted the Federal Reserve to signal a slower pace of policy rate cuts in 2025 and beyond.
As cash yields dwindle, the case for fixed income becomes increasingly compelling.
We continue to agree with market pricing following the ECB’s latest rate cut, but see additional downside risks to growth post-U.S. election.
The transition from bank-dominated lending to a diversified financing ecosystem offers unprecedented opportunities for private credit investors.
Amid concerns about the impact of rising deficits on U.S. Treasuries, it helps to differentiate bond investments by maturity, credit rating, and global relative value.
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
The inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned, broadening potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.
We seek to capitalize on today’s attractive yields while staying mindful of economic and market uncertainties.
Even with Republicans poised to control the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives, slim congressional majorities could hinder the president’s efforts to enact his agenda.
In a week with a U.S. presidential election and market volatility, the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate 25 basis points (bps) as expected. Amid this noise and the generally positive messages from recent macro data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that downside economic risks had decreased, but the policy rate remains above neutral, suggesting that gradual cuts are still likely to come over time.
Many investors today use EM debt for the wrong reasons, manage it imprudently, or overlook the best parts.
Even without new staff projections, the European Central Bank makes policy less restrictive and lowers its relevant rate to 3.25%.
In the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated.
Alpha (α) is a fundamental yet poorly understood concept in finance. Simply put, it is the difference between the return of an investment and that of a risk-adjusted benchmark. In a more advanced definition, alpha is the residual in an asset pricing equation (see Appendix A). Alpha is what active managers strive to achieve and passive managers do not pursue.
We believe the Fed is on a path to continue to cut rates over the next several meetings to realign monetary policy with a now more “normal” U.S. economy.
