Shifting dynamics among global economies and markets present a range of opportunities for multi-asset portfolios.
Despite the reacceleration of inflation and enduring labor market strength, the Fed remains focused on downside risks.
Various methods to estimate this key bond market gauge differ on details but appear to signal rising investor compensation.
While the European Central Bank refrained from declaring victory at its April meeting, a June rate cut seems increasingly likely.
The March U.S. inflation report and other macro data will likely prompt a change in the Federal Reserve’s trajectory in 2024.
The global investment landscape is set to be transformed in the months ahead as the trajectories of major economies diverge more noticeably.
After two volatile years, we believe conditions are especially compelling for fixed income.
Recent signals from major central banks suggest challenges ahead with easing monetary policy amid above-target inflation.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has bid farewell to its negative interest rate policy (NIRP), yield-curve control (YCC) and quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE), marking the end of an era of extraordinary monetary easing.
Federal Reserve officials appear locked in for multiple rate cuts this year, despite inflation reaccelerating – raising questions about the speed and timing of this easing cycle.
While market pricing looks more reasonable, European Central Bank rate cuts, which could commence in June, are unlikely to be delivered as aggressively as the market expects in 2024.
This PIMCO Perspectives assesses how the term premium’s 40-year downturn could start to reverse.
OPEC+ strategies and geopolitical tensions could roil markets.
Adding real assets to a stock and bond portfolio can help boost returns and smooth volatility when inflation runs above 2%.
Debt levels will likely continue to rise absent policy changes, and the yield curve is likely to steepen.
Many investors remain in cash, but we think it’s time to shift exposure to bonds.
The Federal Reserve sees progress on inflation, but wants more certainty before it’s prepared to lower the policy rate.
While interest rates have presumably peaked, we remain skeptical that rate cuts will be delivered as forcefully as the market expects.
Municipals experienced their strongest two-month performance since 1986 during the final two months of 2023.
There are material short- and long-term implications for hydrocarbon markets following the COP28 meeting in Dubai, including tailwinds to oil.
Municipal bonds posted their best performance of the year, and we believe municipal credit conditions remain strong.
Starting portfolio yields may be a better guide to optimal spending than knowledge of future market returns.
The market anticipates a swift shift in the Fed cycle.
While the ECB is unlikely to raise rates further, we remain skeptical that it will deliver rate cuts as early as the market expects.
The dearth of homes for sale has underpinned the housing market’s surprising resilience and may further lift home prices despite reduced affordability.
As banks pull back from many types of lending, demand for capital is outpacing supply, providing the best potential opportunities in private credit since the GFC.
U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, and bond markets rallied, but the Fed is likely to remain in a long pause.
In our 2024 outlook, bonds emerge as a standout asset class, offering strong prospects, resilience, diversification, and attractive valuations compared with equities.
Tighter financial conditions prompted Federal Reserve officials to take a step back from data dependence, and suggest a higher bar for future hikes.
The latest inflation report raises the odds of further Federal Reserve action.
Our September Cyclical Forum was the first to be held in London, where the economic situation today reflects what’s happening around the world.
“Restrictive for longer” is now the mantra as monetary policymakers seek to bring inflation reliably to target.
The spike in bond yields presents an opportunity for fixed income investors to earn capital gains and diversify portfolios.
A liquidity gap is growing as banks curtail specialty lending, providing specialty finance investors opportunities for potential better risk-adjusted returns than we’ve seen since the GFC.
Public credit markets offer high quality investments with attractive yields and downside resilience, while we see growing longer-term opportunities in private markets.
The Federal Reserve forecasts only a modest uptick in U.S. unemployment next year as inflation cools, but history and current labor market trends make us less certain.
The European Central Bank is likely at or very near its peak policy rate, but we don’t expect rate cuts in the near term.
PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board discusses economic and geopolitical factors shaping the long-term global outlook.
We believe idiosyncratic credit events may occur over the next 12 months, but systemic bank risk is remote.
The Fed chair’s high-profile speech emphasized the central bank’s focus on taming inflation.
Commodities stand to benefit from underinvestment and the clean energy transition.
We see compelling value in high-quality, liquid fixed income assets that may offer potential resiliency if the economy weakens.
The sovereign credit rating cut is unlikely to significantly change views toward U.S. Treasuries, but questions about debt sustainability may grow louder over time.
The Bank of Japan announced changes that could allow its yield curve control program to expire gradually if economic conditions are favorable.
Amid an outlook for slower growth and more moderate inflation, the Fed shifts to data dependence.
High-quality fixed-income assets may offer the best return potential in more than a decade along with diversification benefits as a likely recession approaches.
After stubborn U.S. inflation in the first half of 2023 kept the Federal Reserve raising rates, June’s softer inflation report suggests July may mark the end of the hiking cycle.
Debt-financed fiscal policy is driving much of today’s high inflation, but as pandemic-era measures fade, central banks will likely return to their key role in managing price levels.
The European Central Bank (ECB) hikes rates and signals more tightening ahead.
