The U.S. jobs market remains resilient as nonfarm payrolls beat expectations in April.
Last week, the U.S. Labor Department reported that employment rose by 253,000 in April, well above expectations for an increase of 180,000 jobs for the period.
The unemployment rate edged lower by 0.1% last month to 3.4%. The household survey showed the number of unemployed persons at 5.7 million in April, little changed from March.
Private sector jobs rose by 230,000 last month following a gain of 123,000 in March, while public sector jobs were up 23,000 in April after an increase of 42,000 jobs the previous month.
Professional, technical, and scientific services led the hiring last month adding 45,000 jobs. Professional and business services followed with 43,000 jobs added.
The widely watched manufacturing sector saw employment increase by 11,000 jobs in April after falling by 8,000 in March.
Looking closer, we saw that the average workweek remained unchanged at 34.4 hours worked while average month-over-month hourly earnings rose by 0.5%, or $0.16, to $33.36, which was above expectations.
Wages started to move higher with Friday's report showing they're up 4.4% versus April a year ago, up from a 4.3% increase in March. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.6% in April.
A big surprise was in the revisions for March and February’s payrolls, which fell by a combined 149,000 jobs.
Our neighbors to the north in Canada saw payrolls rise by 41,400 in April, above expectations for a 20,000-job increase.
Canada’s unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0%, versus expectations for a 0.1% increase to 5.1%.
Recapping last week's U.S. jobs and industrial data, traders saw better-than-expected readings for Construction Spending for March (+0.3%), ADP Private Sector Employment (+296,000), and ISM Services PMI for April (51.2).
However, JOLTS Job Openings for March (9.59 million), Factory Orders for March (+0.9%), and Weekly Jobless Claims (242,000) all turned in weaker-than-expected results.
This week, the Federal Reserve will have additional inflation and jobs data to assess before the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday and Thursday's Producer Price Index and Weekly Jobless Claims will provide further insight into how inflation and the labor market are faring.
Technicals
Looking at the daily chart for the June 2023 E-mini S&P 500 futures (ESM23), we notice the market making two successful tests of the 50-day moving average (yellow) over the past two weeks.
The market now appears to be in a trading range between 4050.00 and 4200.00 with prices currently holding near the center of the established price range.
This is confirmed by the fairly neutral reading for the 14-day RSI, which is currently near the 52.18 level.
Support is seen at the May 4 low of 4062.25, with resistance found at the May 1 high at 4206.25.
Oil future one-day continuation chart
Contract Specifications
June 2023 E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ESM23)
© Charles Schwab
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