Charles Schwab

It seems to be the end of the Great Moderation Era for the U.S. economy. The Great Moderation Era—which marked most of the two decades leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic—is drifting away into what we call the new Temperamental Era.

A hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve and resilient U.S. growth could keep the dollar strong, but its gains could be limited by any narrowing of the U.S. interest rate advantage.

The Fed's recent shift into a more hawkish mode creates concern about banking profits later this year, but second-quarter results are seen strong thanks to IPOs, mergers.

The Great Moderation has given way to a more volatile era, where inflation shocks and market dispersion favor flexibility and diversification.

Congress is in recess from June 30 through July 13 for the annual July 4 break, so it's relatively quiet in the nation's capital. But there is still plenty worth paying attention to.

During this time of year, we like to take stock of what happened in the first half of the year and compare it with the expectations we had at the beginning of the year when we published our full-year outlooks.

The Senate passed $70 billion immigration enforcement funding bill, Capitol Hill struggles to find consensus on how to regulate AI, and the Trump Accounts app is live.

Equity markets should remain supported by strong earnings and capital investment trends through 2026, but market concentration and macro risks leave less room for error.

Our broad message for the second half of 2026 is this: Income still matters, but investors should be selective. Despite the recent rise in Treasury yields, we suggest investors favor a below-benchmark average duration with their bond holdings, favoring short- and intermediate-term maturities.

Learn what's in store for the remainder of 2026 and the challenges that lie ahead in our mid-year outlook for U.S. stocks and the economy.

Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as 17th Federal Reserve chair on May 22. Warsh is likely to build consensus at the Fed rather than push for aggressive action to cut rates.

The "four horsemen" of the labor market are the unemployment rate, hiring rate, layoff rate, and vacancy rate. Analyzing them together may sharpen investors' read on the economy.

As Kevin Warsh takes over as Federal Reserve chair with his own goals, he may face challenges even beyond rate policy, from inflation to independence to a bulbous balance sheet.

First quarter 2026 earnings were stronger than expected and we think that there might be continued strength in the second quarter, unless there is a major macro shift.

Yields for preferred securities have generally risen more than corporate bond and long-term Treasury yields over the past few months, making them more attractive to investors.

Kevin Warsh set to be confirmed as the next Fed chair, Senate committee meets to consider the CLARITY Act, President Trump heads to China, and the gerrymandering wars heat up.

Emerging market stocks have rebounded to new highs following their correction at the onset of the Iran war. The recent rally has been concentrated around AI. Can this continue?

Though the U.S. drills far more oil than in the past and relies less on supplies from the war-torn Persian Gulf, U.S. consumers see there's no escaping global price realities.

S&P 500 first quarter 2026 earnings are tracking at nearly 28% year-over-year, with rising profit margins suggesting the strong run could persist.

As widely expected amid rising oil, rates will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. However, four policymakers dissented. And Fed Chair Powell will stay as governor after his chairmanship ends.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, can help buffer a portfolio against inflation. However, it's important to understand their unique characteristics and complex nature.

The Department of Justice drops probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh's confirmation moves forward, and Department of Homeland Security funding is back in the spotlight.

Higher oil prices have both positive and negative effects on the municipal bond market. Investors may want to evaluate their concentration risk.

Iran war-related headlines continue to cause volatility in the markets and oil prices to rise, but our experts remind readers that uncertain times might also present opportunities.

Rising oil prices and the historically inflationary aspects of war have changed expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy and have pulled Treasury yields higher.

There's a fight over war funding looming in Congress after a return from the Easter break, and uncertainty around the timing of the Fed chair confirmation hearing remains.

While infrastructure companies are not immune to a potential economic slowdown, they may provide a longer-term investment opportunity amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.

Gambling is rising in popularity, blurring lines between betting vs. investing. Misunderstanding the key differences can endanger financial security.

Volatility is a trader's bread and butter: Without it, profits are harder to come by. However, when volatility remains elevated for an extended period, it could be the sign of a more deeply rooted market shift.

Department of Homeland Security shutdown continues, and Congress considers addressing growing concern over prediction markets.

Bitcoin is now less volatile than some Magnificent 7 stocks, but it's still capable of steep, prolonged declines.

Many investors think about getting out of the stock market when it gets bumpy. But history shows that staying invested over the long term has resulted in positive gains.

A properly functioning Strait of Hormuz holds the keys to clarity around the growth, inflation, and market shock that has stemmed from the war in the Middle East.

The federal funds rate will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. The 'dot plot' still projects a single rate cut this year, and the Fed sees slightly stronger economic growth and inflation.

Investigation of Federal Reserve chair hits an obstacle, while the Department of Homeland Security remains shut down amid funding standoff.

Iran-related geopolitical risk has boosted stock volatility, especially in sectors like Energy. Uncertainty remains high and there are a range of scenarios for how this conflict could be resolved and how it might affect economic conditions and markets.

The worsening energy shock from the Iran War has raised risks of a more severe crisis. It may resolve quickly, but the longer it persists, the larger the possible economic damage. Asia and Europe are most vulnerable.

Volatility spiked as investors questioned the Federal Reserve's next move, adding to existing concerns about private credit markets. Here's why investors shouldn't overreact.

If tensions de-escalate soon, there could be relatively little impact on international markets. However, risks will rise if global energy supplies face a prolonged disruption.

Notwithstanding developments in the Iran conflict, there are important leadership shifts still at play within the equity market, which emphasize the importance of diversification.

Recessions are a regular part of the economic cycle, which means planning ahead is essential. You can't control the economy, but you can take steps to help protect your savings, manage debt, and keep your goals on track. Here are some smart ways to prepare when the economy shifts.

U.S. job creation has been weak despite resilient gross domestic product growth. Here's what may be going on.

In a 6-3 decision, the highest court in the U.S. ruled that President Trump lacks the legal authority to impose sweeping tariffs. But the administration has a Plan B in place.

Municipal bonds have posted strong performance so far this year, despite a news cycle that has many investors questioning the path forward.

AI has evolved from concentrated innovation to increased adoption across industries, which has led to a considerable (and somewhat swift) shift in stock market leadership.

Fourth-quarter earnings results have been generally solid so far, albeit a bit weaker relative to prior quarters when it comes to beat rates and price reactions. On the international front, weakening global ties may lead to economic disruption and lasting investment implications. Meanwhile, bond market volatility has remained low despite economic and policy uncertainty.

While occasional bouts of volatility are likely, we expect the fixed income markets to provide ballast for portfolios and are likely to deliver solid returns in 2026.

As Trump and Powell argue over rates, the Taylor rule uses data to suggest where rates should be. But some argue this is an outdated way to set policy.

Weakening global ties may lead to economic disruption and lasting investment implications. Here's what investors should know about navigating the changing landscape.

Earnings results are shaping up to be quite solid this season, albeit a bit weaker relative to prior quarters when it comes to beat rates and price reactions.

The federal funds rate will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. While the market still expects two rate cuts late this year, the Fed is likely to tread cautiously given the economic backdrop.

Investors are returning to health care stocks, but $1 trillion in government funding cuts and a looming pharma "patent cliff" are among the risks as Q4 earnings reports come due.

While our outlook for the municipal bond market in 2026 is positive overall, we have identified five risks that we believe should be on investors' radar.

Year-end S&P 500 price targets implicitly assume continuity and fail to recognize volatility and macro forces that affect markets throughout any given year.

We expect another generally good year for bond returns this year, but even the best-laid plans can go awry when circumstances change. Here are four risks to our outlook.

EM stocks have increasingly become tied to the fortunes and risks of the growth in AI. Should the AI capex race continue, and earnings estimates are realized, EM stocks have the potential to continue to rise, because valuations are not yet extended.

Big banks begin reporting tomorrow with JPMorgan Chase. Fundamentals may need to be robust to match the sector's recent Wall Street gains, and loan demand could get a close look.

The capture of Venezuelan President Maduro has been digested well by global markets, which is in keeping with 2025’s theme of massive volatility and solid index-level returns.

Our 2026 outlook shows fixed income continuing to benefit from elevated rates, while equities still face a narrowing edge over risk-free investments.

After three strong years in a row, major indexes ended the year seeking direction. While optimism abounds, here are some potential issues that could trip up U.S. stocks.

Understand how a recession is defined and how to avoid common investment mistakes during recession-driven stock market downturns.

Researching lesser-known economic indicators on the thinkorswim® platform is a low-effort way to potentially elevate an investor's game.

Investors are navigating not just uncertainty, but an unstable environment influenced by tariffs and inflation, among other factors. While volatility may increase, there is likely room for another solid year in 2026, especially for fixed income and international stocks

The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, as widely expected. However, Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a pause ahead, and there were several dissents.

International stocks could be poised for another strong year in 2026 due to accelerating global growth, attractive valuations and the potential for dollar weakness.

We believe the macro environment will continue to be unstable given policy crosscurrents and a wobbly labor market, but stocks can likely churn higher given a firmer earnings backdrop.

We continue to suggest an up-in-quality fixed income bias for the short run, but investors can still consider some of the riskier parts of the fixed income market in moderation.

We expect 2026 to be another good year for fixed income investors. However, yields that are lower than where they were a year ago and less room for rate cuts by central banks likely will mean less-robust returns.

Thanks to AI-generated power demand, the utilities sector is losing its traditional defensive role. Is this a permanent move, or will utilities ultimately regain their place?

After a gangbuster stock market rally since the early-April lows, many of the prior highfliers have taken a breather amid AI bubble and valuation concerns.

Answers to questions investors are currently asking about Treasury bonds, tax policy, credit quality and other issues currently affecting fixed income investments.

Investors will be looking for a read on hyperscaler AI spending, the impact of rising competition, and expansion to new growth areas in the chipmaker's upcoming Q3 earnings report.

While stock and bond markets wait for U.S. federal data to become available again, private-sector reports suggest lukewarm overall economic growth.

Consumers are in a sour mood over inflation and jobs as major retailers prepare to report earnings and offer their outlooks for the holiday shopping period.

A bipartisan group of senators struck a deal on November 9th to re-open the government, with seven Democrats and one independent joining 52 of the 53 Republicans to reach the elusive 60-vote supermajority needed to move forward.

While we wait for federal data to come back online, private sector gauges continue to underscore still-weak manufacturing, resilient services, and mediocre job growth.

We often hear about the Fed chair, but who are the governors at the Fed and what is their role? Recent events have raised the profile of other Fed interest rate voters.

Though many AI-related stocks continued to struggle, including Advanced Micro Devices despite solid earnings, indexes rebounded early as a private jobs report exceeded forecasts.

German officials announced a massive stimulus program in early 2025. The results have been underwhelming so far, but we believe the economic boost to Germany and Europe is still coming.

The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, as widely expected. However, dissenting votes may cloud the path forward.

Effectively reading the Federal Reserve's Beige Book can help investors spot economic, industry, and consumer trends that could potentially impact investment portfolios.

The politics of the government shutdown are about to get trickier. Today is Day 28 of the government shutdown. The Senate will be in session this week, but the House of Representatives remains in recess.

Still-healthy demand and disciplined cost control are central themes for earnings, which continue to suggest a mostly resilient economy in light of government data darkness.

As major tech firms report this week and next, investors will focus on how much they're spending on AI. Cloud competition is also top of mind, along with early iPhone 17 sales.

Earnings growth and attractive valuations for Japanese companies, reforms to corporate governance, and other shifts in the Japanese economy may create opportunities for investors.

The stock and bond markets are taking the government shutdown—and lack of data releases—in stride, but how long the calm might last is an open question.

With Congress unable to reach an agreement on funding the government, a government shutdown began when the new fiscal year started on October 1.

Big banks begin reporting Tuesday and are expected to benefit from a steeper yield curve, strong trading, and investment banking demand. The profit path ahead is less certain.

With official data halted by the U.S. government shutdown, investors turn to private and high-frequency indicators to track jobs, spending, and growth in real time.

President Trump again proposed that companies be required to report twice a year rather than every quarter. What are some pros and cons, and how would it affect investors?

While the Consumer Price Index is closely followed, these five under-the-radar inflation gauges can provide more insight into inflation's trajectory.

The full impact of U.S. import tariffs on the broader economy has yet to be felt and may not happen for some time—or even at all. Economic distortions from tariffs are still filtering through the global economy, but so are offsets such as fiscal and monetary stimulus, as well as spending on artificial intelligence (AI).

The U.S. government bought shares of Intel and other companies and made a deal with Nvidia for some of its revenue. What does this mean for investors and for those firms?

AI technology has the potential to profoundly improve industries and markets, but not without some risks—like valuation and profitability—that investors should be aware of.

BLS and ADP jobs reports often diverge, creating mixed signals. Traders need to know why this happens, and how to use these reports to spot risks, opportunities, and mispricing.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, can help buffer a portfolio against inflation. However, it's important to understand their unique characteristics and complex nature.

Chinese equities have surged amid investor optimism about AI innovation and certain government initiatives, despite a slowdown in China's economy.

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut its short-term interest rate, citing concerns about slowing job growth. Where Fed policy goes from here is less clear.

Greater mega-cap stock exposure carries significant upside risks, but concentration can also work against investors—helping make the case for diversification in portfolios.

A Federal Reserve rate cut won't necessarily lower longer-term bond yields or mortgage rates.

Progress on reducing fiscal deficits has stalled in some large economies around the world. Should investors be worried?

The Federal Reserve may cut rates a couple of times by year-end, but the pace and magnitude of easing in 2026 is unclear. There are still some roadblocks to lower bond yields.

The housing market remains out of sync with the broader economy as affordability is depressed, but an improvement in supply and demand dynamics might be on the horizon.

Learning to read the Fed minutes effectively can help traders understand the central bank's policy-making process, sentiment, and rate expectations, all of which can impact markets.

When the value of the U.S. dollar declines, international developed-market bonds tend to become attractive. Here's why the bond outlook is more positive than it has been for the past decade.

International stocks have outperformed the broad U.S. stock market so far this year. If the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, it could boost international returns even more.

Nvidia, the biggest AI-chip firm, reports Wednesday. Watchlist items include the pathway toward resuming H20 chip sales in China, revenue guidance, and Blackwell growth.

U.S. health care stocks are having their worst year relative to the S&P 500 in years, and the next blow could be pharma tariffs. Still, some retail investors see opportunity.

Market uncertainty is leaving would-be retirees unsure about the future. Here, three Schwab professionals discuss how to navigate the transition with confidence.

July inflation data emphasized that tariff-related price pressures are still with us, in addition to some heat in the services sector—making the road to Fed cuts a bit bumpier.

U.S. economic growth slowed decisively in the first half of the year amid concern about rising tariffs, although corporate fundamentals have remained strong.

While growth may slow in the near term, Europe's longer-term outlook appears to be improving.

Despite inflation pressure, tariffs and immigration policy are leading to slower job growth and consumer spending, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon.

Bear markets are part of a normal market cycle. Understanding their basics and history can help investors make strategic investment decisions when bear markets occur.

The July jobs report revealed significant downward revisions to payroll growth in the aftermath of the trade war, while also underscoring supply-side stress.

Federal Reserve officials leave short-term interest rates unchanged but appear to open the door for a potential rate cut later this year.

Globally, stock markets are near their highest levels for the year, reversing the losses that came in the wake of the U.S. tariffs announced on President Donald Trump's declared "Liberation Day," April 2nd.

Despite some wide swings over the last few years, most bond yields still remain elevated.

Tech earnings strength has lifted S&P 500 earnings growth in recent quarters and could again as major firms like Apple, Microsoft, and Intel gear up to report in coming weeks.

The market's rebound from the April lows has had a speculative, risky leadership profile—but broader participation suggests the bull can keep running for now.

We continue to maintain a Marketperform rating on all sectors, a position we adopted in April after the White House unveiled a policy of steep but fluctuating global tariffs.

Although investing in in-state municipal bonds may have tax advantages, there can be good reasons to buy out-of-state munis.

Not sure which to choose? Here are some things to consider about individual bonds vs. bond funds.

Emerging market (EM) countries are often generalized as all the same and driven by commodity prices. The reality can be very different. Here's what you should know about EM stocks now.

The resilient job market has supported stock gains, but Washington policy has been a primary market driver so far this year.

After mid-level performance in Q1, financials sector earnings are seen slowing in Q2, according to analysts, though favorable signs like the yield curve could help margins.

The earnings bar is fairly low for the second quarter, setting companies up for a potential easy jump—but there will likely be more focus on forward guidance.

Though some urge rate cuts, doing that won't necessarily reduce borrowing costs if the market doesn't agree with the timing. It could raise inflation fears, hurting Treasuries.

The Senate has approved its own version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan. Here's how it differs from the version the House passed in May, and what's next.

Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.

The marathon Senate budget vote took center stage early and stocks slipped from yesterday's all-time highs. Job openings, Powell, and manufacturing data are top of mind.

Easing trade tensions and hopes the Senate could pass a budget gave stocks an early lift after Friday's record highs. The week is packed with jobs news and Powell talks tomorrow.

Market breadth can help gauge strength or weakness. Methods include tracking the number of stocks trading above or below moving averages or making new highs or lows.

We continue to suggest an "up in quality" fixed income bias for the short run, but investors can still consider some of the riskier parts of the fixed income market in moderation.

Index futures inched upward premarket as the headline May PCE data landed in line with expectations, though the core data and annual figures were up slightly.

The Senate is getting close to the finish line on its version of the "One Big Beautiful" tax-and-spending bill.

Inflation's trend has been favorable this year, but a growing conflict in Iran—combined with already-imposed tariffs—might put upward pressure in prices later this year.

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of inflation and potentially higher unemployment remained high.

After a long dry spell, there are signs of life in the initial public offerings space. An increase in offerings can sometimes suggest an improvement in overall market sentiment.

What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.

Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.

The Senate is continuing to work behind the scenes to develop its version of the "One Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill that passed the House by a singe vote in May.

Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.

What's the debt ceiling? Learn how the debt ceiling works and how a default on federal debt could impact the U.S. stock market and economy.

The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?

The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.

Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?

Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.

The bill contains several tax-code changes that could affect municipal bonds, although we don't think it reduces the appeal of munis for high-income earners.

Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.

Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.

A U.S. trade court has blocked most of the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariffs, but the legal battle will continue. Here's what investors should know.

Corporate credit spreads, whether investment grade or high yield, can often hint at hiccups in the stock market and the economy. But they tend to keep a low profile.

Nvidia, the biggest AI chip firm, reports Wednesday. Blackwell chip demand, tariffs, and guidance all could help determine how shares respond after a volatile two months.

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan was passed by the House of Representatives and now moves on to the Senate. Here's what's in it.

There is still a wide divergence between hard and soft data, and a recovery in the latter is likely to be weak absent a meaningful reduction in policy uncertainty.

Residential mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, are a big part of the securitized investment market. Here's what to know about MBS investing.

A host of data influences the market, including jobs and GDP. Learn how savvy investors decipher their meaning and what they watch for beneath the surface.

Tariffs have long been part of U.S. economic policy, but big changes can disrupt markets and trade. Here's a quick overview of some questions investors may have.

Shopping for bonds? The bonds you choose should align with your risk tolerance and goals. Discover what to consider before buying any bond.

Discounted municipal bonds could expose you to unexpected taxes. Here's what to know before you buy.

The shifting change in market leadership to international outperformance may call for a portfolio review to assess overexposure risks.

Stocks have rebounded since the White House delayed steep tariffs that were announced in early April, but trade policy remains a potential driver of volatility.

Certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasuries both can offer steady, predictable investment income—but how to decide between them? Here are five factors to help you choose.

The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.

A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is a so-called "soft" report, not reflecting "hard" data like GDP or CPI. It moved markets recently, so how much attention should investors pay?

A massive budget bill of tax and spending cuts, as well as a debt ceiling debate loom as Congress returns from its Easter recess.

Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.

Historically the United States dollar strengthens when U.S. Treasury yields rise. But the reverse happened in April after the White House announced widespread tariffs.

As major tech firms like Apple and Microsoft report, they face questions about the impact of tariffs. Q1 results may be discounted, with strength seen as pre-tariff demand.

Recent volatility has pushed yields to historically high levels, potentially creating opportunities in municipal bonds, especially for higher-net-worth investors.

Theoretical forecasts and earnings announcements may provide initial insights as to the impact of current tariff proposals, although estimates may be imprecise.

Markets were rattled by tariff announcements in early April. Here are three takeaways for investors considering preferred securities, investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds.

One of the most volatile market weeks in years was sparked by tariff announcements earlier this month. President Donald Trump's 10% universal tariff went into effect on April 5th, followed by his controversial reciprocal tariffs on April 9th.

Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.

It was a wild week on Wall Street after President Donald Trump announced a broad new tariff policy that went beyond what most analysts had anticipated, spurring a plunge in both stock and bond markets.

Earnings season begins with companies adjusting on the fly to tariffs. This could give investors insight into strategies firms are taking and how businesses might be affected.

Members of Congress from both parties were among the many caught off guard by last week's Rose Garden tariff announcement.

Callable bonds make up a large share of the bond market—and introduce one more variable into the bond-investing process.

While there are no absolute winners in a trade war, there may be relative winners in the global stock market for investors to consider.

U.S. indexes suffered their worst day since the pandemic, hurt by Trump's massive tariffs that sparked recession fears. Almost every sector fell, with retailers and tech hard hit.

The combination of slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation, combined with uncertainty about U.S. tariff policy, is keeping investors cautious.

Market volatility is likely to rise as investors digest the president's plans.

Stocks are mixed around midday after seeing some mid-morning buying as investors position ahead of tomorrow's "Liberation Day".

Amid a market correction and heightened policy, inflation and growth concerns, valuations are back in the spotlight.

On April 2, the U.S. is preparing to announce additional tariffs on a wide range of imports and countries. Here's the assessment of those policies, and their possible impacts.

Investment-grade floating-rate notes prices tend to be more stable than their fixed-rate counterparts, so they may be worth considering during periods of volatility.

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady and signaled two rate cuts this year, despite expecting inflation to remain elevated.

Congress managed to avoid a government shutdown, but Democrats are divided on strategy.

Recession fears have risen sharply of late as economic soft data have rolled over, upping the risk that hard data start to catch down.

What does a "correction" mean, what's likely to happen next, and what can investors do now?

Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.

Economic growth, earnings performance, and rising fiscal spending coupled with "America First" policies are driving international stock markets.

Though mergers and acquisitions were expected to roar back in 2025 thanks to the new administration, uncertainty around Washington policy appears to be holding back new deals.

Treasury yields have been falling for weeks. Yet inflation expectations remain high and recent growth data have been fairly strong—not a traditional backdrop for declining yields. What's happening?

Heightened economic uncertainty—propelled mainly by trade policy—has unearthed weakness in the equity market, with most pain felt under the market's surface.

Should you avoid lower-rated, riskier investments like high-yield corporate bonds or bank loans? Not necessarily, but you should understand the risks.

Nvidia, the biggest AI chip firm, reports Wednesday with investors watching sales of Nvidia's newest chips and worried about cheaper competition from systems like DeepSeek.

We explore drivers that may contribute to continued outperformance of European stocks since the bull market began in October 2022.

Taxable municipal bonds may be an attractive option for investors in lower tax brackets, but there are things investors should know before making a decision.

Recent data, early results, and a relatively firm economy point toward possible improvement in Q4 retail earnings as Walmart, Target, and other big-box stores prepare to report.

Growth and value are often thought of simplistically, but subsurface details in growth- and value-labeled indexes challenge pre-conceived notions of the factors.

Stocks bounced back after tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada were delayed, but tariff issues are not yet solved and still hold the potential to drive market volatility.

Could the U.S. dollar lose its place as the world's reserve currency? Despite a long-term trend toward currency diversification, we don't see the dollar losing dominance anytime soon.

Tariff policies have been announced and then subsequently rescinded or delayed–but not yet resolved. They may still hold the potential for market volatility.

After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.

The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.

Guidance and spending will be important to watch as analysts have their eyes on annual revenue growth, especially after news of DeepSeek shocked U.S. markets.

Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?

Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.

The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.

Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.

Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.

Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.

Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.

Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.

Continuing last year's trend, our 2025 outlook shows fixed income benefiting from high rates, while equities face a narrowing edge over risk-free investments.

Today often kicks off the Santa Claus rally. Stocks rose and volatility is down sharply from recent peaks, but yields keep rising, which has hurt the non-tech part of the market.

With economic growth rising at a stronger rate than expected for this part of the cycle and inflation holding above the 2.0% target, the Fed appears more cautious about the need for rate cuts.

U.S. stocks retreated as the Fed indicated it likely would lower rates only twice in 2025. The Dow dropped more than 1,000 points, and the S&P slid almost 3%. The Nasdaq lost 3.6%.

Surprises most often are hiding in plain sight. Being aware and prepared with a plan for the unexpected are keys to achieving goals.

We expect gears to shift as potential policy changes under the Trump administration add to uncertainty about inflation and the global economy.

Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.

The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.

Strong 2024 performance may be tough to replicate given tight credit spreads, but we still have a favorable view on corporate bond investments given the strong economy.

We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.

The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates and the risk of higher inflation and federal debt levels.

International markets are expected to clear the hurdles of uncertain trade policy, tighter fiscal policy and slower than average economic growth to support solid overall returns.

You're interested in investing in municipal bonds, but which type—general obligation or revenue—is best for you? We break it down.

Some post-election stock market excitement has receded, but the story of strong breadth—which predated the election—has not changed and continues to support the market for now.

Treasury inflation-protected securities can help buffer a portfolio against inflation. However, it's important to understand their unique characteristics and complex nature.

Market reactions to a potential trade war may be less extreme than anticipated by investors, although volatility is likely during trade negotiations.

The period from the 1960s to the 1990s defined by record-setting inflation and big swings in GDP bears a striking resemblance to the current environment.

AI chip-leader Nvidia reports Wednesday after recent guidance from cloud providers suggests the demand powering its shares could continue. Its own guidance, however, could be key.

Declining inflation has been a theme for the economy since mid-2022, but we still believe the road may have some curves.

Recent data, early results, and a relatively firm economy point toward possible improvement in Q3 retail earnings as Walmart, Target, and other big-box stores prepare to report.

Republicans won the White House and Senate in the 2024 U.S. election, while vote counting continues for the House of Representatives. Here's a look at the policies that could affect markets.

The Fed cut rates by 0.25%, with limited changes to the statement, while Powell's blunt "no" response about any coming political pressure to resign was headline grabbing.

Stocks and yields made slight early gains but attention is mainly on today's U.S. election. ISM Services data and a 10-year note auction lie ahead, and bond volatility is high.

The Treasury yield curve is an important economic indicator that, depending on its shape, can signal changes in market expectations and provide economic insight.

Although investing in in-state municipal bonds may have tax advantages, there can be good reasons to buy out-of-state munis.

Earnings season is shaping up to be relatively strong so far, but the market will likely continue to shift focus to an increasingly murky sales picture.

The tech sector approaches third-quarter earnings season in unusual territory, with investors worried about a slowdown in earnings growth over the last year. Margins loom large.

Tighter fiscal policy in Europe and China may hinder the economic response to easing monetary policy, with a resulting shift in investors' focus.

Agency bonds issued by government-sponsored enterprises can offer slightly higher yields than U.S. Treasury bonds, without requiring bondholders to take on too much additional risk.

Turbulent market conditions can make anyone nervous. Here's what investors should know about dealing with them.

This unique bull market is still young relative to history and, for now, supported by relatively healthy breadth and broadening participation.

Has the Federal Reserve achieved an economic "soft landing"? A resilient U.S. economy suggests it may have.

After the Fed's 50-basis-point rate cut, big banks kick off earnings season amid fears that lower rates could hurt the net-interest income that propelled growth the last two years.

Should China deliver sufficient stimulus to break the cycle of tightening fiscal policy, we may find China, and emerging markets, investable again.

How will the U.S. dollar respond to Federal Reserve rate cuts? The factors that have supported a strong dollar for years remain largely intact.

We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.

Historically, staying invested has been, in our view, an effective strategy and one to consider when it comes to election years and beyond.

Policy, more likely to be dictated by economic circumstances, may not resemble generous populist proposals, which could limit their impact on stock markets.

Schwab Sector Views is our six- to 12-month outlook for stock sectors, which represent broad sectors of the economy. The Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) combines a factor-based approach with a market and economic assessment to determine the ratings. For the basics on sectors, please see Stock Sectors: What Are They? How Are They Used?

From "how" to "why now," here are four things investors should understand about bond investing.

Policymakers indicated that more interest rate cuts were likely in coming months.

Panic is never a good investment strategy—nor is greed. Here's how disciplined investing helps navigate through volatile environments.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates at its September meeting. Market performance may depend on whether the pace of cuts is fast or slow.

Certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasuries both can offer steady, predictable investment income—but how to decide between them? Here are five factors to help you choose.

How are bull and bear markets defined and how should you approach them as an investor?

While the pace of Federal Reserve cuts is in question, all roads lead to lower interest rates.

Given the backdrop of monetary policy stimulus, the global economy is poised for growth and international stocks for continued leadership.

Stock buybacks have boomed in recent years. With corporate cash flows remaining high and potential rate cuts from the Fed, the trend appears set to continue.

Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.

High-yield bonds have been one of the best-performing bond investments so far this year, but there may be better entry points down the road.

Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.

Although we think it's too early to declare the economy is in a recession, risk is elevated. For investors who are concerned about a recession, municipal bonds may help buffer a portfolio.

It's been 38 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.

Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.

Markets were recently rattled by concerns the U.S. may slip into recession, but it's not clear that those fears are justified.

Bond prices whipsawed over the past month as volatility spiked across markets. What's next for fixed income markets?

Common wisdom is that consumers are pulling back on spending, but some green shoots are sprouting that might break ground as big retailers prepare to report second-quarter results.

Having been warned about the risk, investors now ask if the yen carry trade unwind is complete. Here's how far it might still go.

When the Federal Reserve lowers its key short-term interest rate, the impact isn't uniform across the financial universe.

What the Fed's monetary-policy tools signal about the market.

The softening trends in both inflation and labor data are sending a message that monetary policy is too restrictive.

The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the July meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year.

Potential for another trade war fueled by a rise in global protectionist policies has investors revisiting the potential impact on stocks, inflation, and economic growth.

Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.

While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.

Relatively high yields mean investors who have been focusing on short-term securities wouldn't need to sacrifice much yield if they chose MBS to help limit their reinvestment risk.

As Microsoft, Meta Platforms, chipmakers, and others prepare to report earnings, the AI-driven cloud and chip industries may continue to dominate the technology storyline.

Discover what surprised markets in the second quarter of 2024 and understand the potential drivers of volatility for the third quarter.

Softening inflation supports the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in coming months, but there are complexities below the surface.

Net interest income helped big banks, which begin reporting second-quarter earnings July 12, but there's concern about how long it can keep going.

Although the market is off to a rough start to the year, we think it should recover.

Almost every industry could ultimately incorporate AI, leaving a puzzle for investors seeking exposure. Using the internet as an example may provide some breadcrumbs.

The labor market continues to normalize and soften, but we think any further weakening might push the Fed to cut rates before the 2% inflation target is reached.

Owning only the U.S. stock market likely means being overweight Tech. But Tech stocks don't always outperform. Investors may want to look outside the U.S. to be diversified.

How to help position your portfolio in anticipation of an economic downturn.

Schwab Sector Views is our six- to 12-month outlook for stock sectors, which represent broad sectors of the economy. The Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) combines a factor-based approach with a market and economic assessment to determine the ratings.

U.S. Treasury auctions are of interest lately due to growing U.S. debt and high interest rates. What are Treasury auctions, how do they work, and what should investors know?

This year's tale of two markets has underscored resilience at the index level but considerable weakness at the individual member level, leading to massive performance divergences.

Investment-grade corporate bonds remain attractive given their lower risk and relatively high yields. Long-term investors who can handle volatility might consider high-yield bonds and preferred securities, but we wouldn't suggest large positions in either.

A top risk for investors, elections may see a shift from centrist to more populist policy that could slow exports, raise inflation, and increase volatility in the global markets.

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the June meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year if inflation declines.

Certain segments of the economy and stock market have experienced much stronger recoveries this year, underscoring a severe bifurcation between the "haves" and "have nots."

Looking into the second half of the year, we are optimistic that returns will be stronger, but also expect volatility to remain elevated.

Historically, the level of U.S. debt has had no correlation with the performance of the stock or bond markets.

As the global economy builds on its recovery this year, markets may see increased volatility due to divergent central bank policies, geopolitics and election outcomes.

Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.

Discounted municipal bonds could expose you to unexpected taxes. Here's what to know before you buy.

Predicting Fed rate changes may be an inexact exercise, but understanding how the tools that do track it work can help investors weather uncertain markets.

The housing market looks to be on the road to recovery, but not without significant scarring for a considerable portion of potential homeowners.

The two largest emerging markets have taken very different paths, echoing the divergence in the economic and demographic landscape for these two countries.

Nvidia faces tough competition, law of large numbers as it prepares to report Wednesday.

Inflation data has continued to fuel uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates. It's a question with global implications.

Walmart kicks off retail earnings season as high interest rates and inflation raise concerns over continued robust consumer spending.

Bank lending standards are still restrictive, underscoring the Fed's view that financial conditions remain tight and any resulting economic weakness could keep rate cuts in play.

Europe's mild recession is over, with growth expected to continue. Valuations for eurozone stocks remain attractive, offering the potential for further price appreciation.

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the May meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year if inflation declines.

First-quarter earnings results have been healthy thus far, but key to the ongoing rally will be companies' recovery in revenue growth and strengthening forward guidance.

The AI-driven cloud and chip industries come into focus in the next month as Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and others prepare to report earnings.

We believe high-yield munis carry additional risks, but are worth consideration by investors in higher tax brackets who are comfortable taking added risks.

Dollar strength resulting from central banks' independent policies on rate cuts is unlikely to be tampered by China's deflation or geopolitics.

Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.

Reviewing the basics can keep you from being caught off guard if your investment is returned to you before the stated maturity date.

While major indexes have seemingly been calm this year, there are notable and stealthy sector leadership shifts that have happened under the surface.

There are signs that some previous "rolling recessions" are starting to turn into rolling recoveries.

The first quarter was strong for major U.S. investment banks as the economy grew and M&A and IPO activity accelerated.

Earnings growth, a driver of long-term stock market performance, seems to be expanding beyond a handful of U.S. equities, supporting more broad-based market performance.

Emerging-market local-currency bonds have rallied sharply since last October, along with other risky segments of the global bond market. However, navigating the market can be challenging.

Inflation looks to still be trending lower, but a relatively stubborn decline will likely inspire the Fed to start cutting rates later (and slower) than expected.

Over the past 70 years, rising government debt generally has been accompanied by weaker economic activity. But it's not a simple relationship.

Our outlook is still positive, but it may be difficult to replicate the strong returns of the past few quarters.

Changes in China's economic policy tend not be communicated prior to implementation. What can we expect from China's stock market in response to any shifts?

There have been several big changes in the municipal bond market lately. Here's what you should know.

The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates likely will move lower, but perhaps not as quickly as markets had been expecting.

Between adjustments in Fed policy and a coming presidential election, it's going to be an emotional year, but historical data shows staying invested is the best course for investors.

The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: When will rate cuts begin?

Sentiment data is beginning to match relatively strong "hard" economic data.

Global elections may lean towards nationalist policies that could hinder trade in goods via tariffs, but also boost growth in domestic industries to counter inflationary effects.

India's prospects are bright, but the country faces significant headwinds. Here's what to know as an investor.

Although a strong economy has changed expectations about the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, we still see room for the Federal Reserve to cut by three-quarters of a point this year.

Investor sentiment and stock market valuations are getting increasingly stretched as indexes trek higher, but solid underlying breadth has been a positive offset for now.

The second-largest stock market has captured the interest of investors, supported by stronger, more broad-based earnings, and incentivized by Japan's fiscal and monetary policies.

Short-term bond yields are high currently, but with the Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates investors may want to consider longer-term bonds or bond funds.

The chip sector comes into sharp focus ahead of a key earnings report, with signs of divergence in the sector.

Walmart leads the way as major retailers start weighing in on a positive year for consumer spending. But will it hold true as individual companies report results?

Relatively hot inflation reports might be blips, but they reinforce why the Fed's rate-cutting cycle might be more gradual, which could be a better backdrop for stocks.

Sentiment data is beginning to match relatively strong "hard" economic data.

Market folklore provides an easy, but inaccurate guide for investing in today's interconnected and complex market. Indicators based on economic or market behavior may be preferred.

While focus remains on when the Fed will start cutting rates, history suggests other factors must be looked at when assessing forward stock market performance.

As expected, the Fed held rates steady in January, but importantly downplayed the likelihood that rate cuts will start as soon as March.

Market expectations have established a high bar for central banks' rate cuts. Any disappointment like stronger inflation or economic growth could spark market volatility.

Credit quality in the muni market likely has peaked, but we believe states' strong rainy-day funds and other attributes will lend stability in the near term.

After 2023's price cuts and tougher competition, Tesla is set to report late Wednesday. Lower demand and a big, one-time jump in used EVs could drive a very different 2024.

While the S&P 500's all-time high hasn't been accompanied by other parts of the market (notably, small caps), further gains are possible if breadth firms up.

Bank loan income may decline if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. That doesn't mean investors should avoid them altogether, but it's important to understand the risks.

Tech sector stocks gained more than 50% last year, fueled by AI and signs of improvement in the cloud and chip markets. Upcoming Q4 results could give investors clues into 2024.

The election outcome is unlikely to change the status quo for the Taiwan Strait, U.S.-China relations, or global markets which have seemed to price in geopolitical risk.

Economic data has provided encouragement for both stock market bulls and bears.

With the Federal Reserve poised to begin cutting interest rates this year, the dollar may drift generally downward. However, its performance against individual currencies may vary widely.

Earnings season starts Friday as major investment banks report, and the focus is on rates.

While headline payroll growth was relatively strong in December, weaker details under the surface continue to paint a mixed labor market picture.

Our current 10-year outlook highlights better opportunities for cash and bonds, primarily driven by higher starting yields, and a steady outlook for stocks.

Today's uncertain economic climate is putting particular pressure on four market segments. Here's what to watch out for in the months ahead.

There are many risks for 2024 including those that are an ever-present part of investing and not unique to the outlook for any particular year. We've highlighted our top five.

The decision to hold the federal funds rate steady was in line with expectations, but the accompanying statement and projections indicate a shift toward easing in 2024.

We see potential opportunity in municipal bonds in 2024, although there may be more volatility.

Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked. We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.

Our outlook for 2024 is for a gradual U-shaped recovery composed of seemingly chaotic movements in economic data with turning points in policy rates and earnings growth.

Inflation is a touchy subject, and given there are many ways to analyze it, investors should take note of the nuances that exist within the data.

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Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.

Reasons prompting concern around investing in China may be improving, but volatility is likely to remain characteristic of Chinese stocks in 2024.

Today's uncertain economic climate is putting particular pressure on four market segments. Here's what to watch out for in the months ahead.

The bill will keep the federal government running into early 2024 but likely increases the risk of a shutdown in February.

Like some advances earlier this year, the market's current surge hasn't been defined by strong breadth underneath the surface—which will be key for a sustained, durable advance.

Treasury yields have dropped as weak economic data suggests the Federal Reserve may begin cutting the federal funds rate target earlier than previously expected.

If you're close to retiring, beware of the little-known sequence-of-returns risk that could take a huge slice out of your retirement income.

Policy changes at the Bank of Japan could potentially reverse capital flows, shift global yields higher, contribute to a stronger yen, and increase the value of Japanese stocks.

While bond prices are generally down, the income they provide is up, providing potential opportunities for fixed income investors.

With unanimity, the Fed opted to keep the fed funds rate unchanged but remains attentive to the idea that inflation risk should still be paid attention to.

Earnings results thus far underscore the strong bifurcation within the market, which is confirmed by the continued deterioration in breadth throughout the current correction.

With the Federal Reserve poised to change direction, investors who have been investing in very short-term securities may soon face "reinvestment risk."

Investments in alternative energy have become unattractive due to higher interest rates, not changes in government policies, adoption or pricing of green technologies.

While surface-level economic data appear resilient, details below the surface are mixed.

Interest expense is a large and growing issue for both the economy and stock market, which reinforces why investors should stay up in quality amid interest-rate-driven headwinds.

A run of shrinking quarterly profits may finally end soon, but it's probably not time to break out the champagne just yet.

As the Federal Reserve signals it will keep interest rates higher for longer, the market appears to be reflecting the uncertainty about the path of policy going forward.

Corporate defaults and bankruptcies are on the rise, but we don't believe it should be a concern for investors who hold highly rated corporate bond investments, like those with investment-grade ratings.

Expectations of "higher for longer" U.S. interest rates has helped drive the dollar's recent rally.

Certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasuries both can offer steady, predictable investment income—but how to decide between them? Here are five factors to help you choose.

Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.

Historically, government shutdowns have not caused a major reaction in the markets. But shutdowns can increase market volatility, and an extended shutdown could have an impact on the overall economy.

The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: Is the rate-hike cycle over?

The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.

A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.

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Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.

Changes in sentiment may drive the performance of the Eurozone equity markets, even with disappointing economic data.

We expect yields to fall later this year and into 2024 as inflation continues to cool.

The August jobs report confirms the labor market's continued slowdown, which is for now consistent with the Fed's soft-landing desires—but not without warning signs.

Although high-yield bonds have performed well so far this year, we continue to take a cautious view.

Markets are prone to cyclical behavior, which presents risks and opportunities for investors. Here are some basics investors should know about market cycles, recessions, and recoveries.

China's economy may have spillover effects on global economic and earnings growth, but it's unlikely to lead to global financial contagion and send stock markets materially lower.

Taxable municipal bonds may be an attractive option for investors in lower tax brackets, but there are things investors should know before making a decision.

With the path of least resistance for stocks seemingly lower for now, key to watch will be a stabilization in interest rate volatility and clarity on the path of monetary policy.

Foreign stocks are again competitive with their domestic counterparts. Here are four ways to gain exposure.

As businesses worldwide adopt technology, the innovation of AI may result in market leadership changes, global economic growth, and investor opportunities.

Will the economy roll into a formal recession, or is a recovery underway? It's a close call.

Earnings season has thus far been a mixed bag, and despite a notable increase in the beat rate, the market is rightfully shifting focus to guidance for the rest of the year.

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During the past decade, a turnaround in the Golden State has resulted in higher credit quality for many issuers.

Central bank policies are set to diverge from the steady hikes characterizing the first half of 2023, contributing to increased market volatility for the remainder of the year.

In a unanimous decision, Federal Reserve policymakers raised the federal funds rate to 5.5%, the highest point since 2001.

There are multiple factors to consider, including your tax rate.

The recent broadening out in market breadth has been accompanied by frothier investor sentiment, but using sentiment as a market-timing tool is tricky (if not impossible).

A high probability for an El Niño event in the second half of 2023 brings concerns of extreme weather, persistent inflation, supply chain disruptions, and market volatility.

As summer temperatures peak, inflation just won't completely cool down. The question is how much more the Federal Reserve should do about it.

Now that short-term Treasury yields have reached 5%, further upside is likely to be limited.

The recent collection of labor data has painted a mixed jobs picture, but underlying wage strength and still-strong payroll growth will likely keep the Fed in a hawkish position.

Given attractive yields and strong credit conditions, we have a positive view on the municipal bond market for the second half of the year.

India's growth initiatives and demographics may help its economy continue to advance; its stocks seem to have priced in high expectations for the world's fifth-largest economy.

After falling into its own recession last year, the housing market has started to turn decisively higher; but a sustained recovery might not be the strongest elixir for the economy.

We expect generally good performance during the second half of the year, although volatility may increase, especially for high-yield bonds.

Japanese stocks may help boost the performance of international markets although the unique nature of Japan's economic and business structure could pose some risks.

Though recent data suggests China's re-opening growth has slowed, it's likely temporary. As China's recovery continues, it may have implications for U.S. inflation and rates.

With unanimity, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate in its current range, but updated projections suggest this rate-hike cycle is not yet over.

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Most of the things we expected to happen during the first half of the year in fact did: Inflation eased, U.S. economic growth slowed, the Federal Reserve appears to be near the end of its rate-hike cycle, and the U.S. government debt ceiling standoff was resolved before a potential default.

Sometimes it feels like the economy and markets are on different tracks.

The meaning of "wealth" goes far beyond having a lot of money. It's more about what money can do for you.

A broadening out in market performance would help bolster a more sustainable stock rally, but that hinges on increasing clarity for monetary policy, recession risk, and bank stress.

Despite high volatility in the bond market during the first half of the year, what's surprising is how much didn't change.

The drama characterizing the first half of 2023 may abate, with potentially milder returns for investors due to the effects of the Cardboard Box Recession.

The measure ends weeks of negotiation and unease about a potentially catastrophic government default.

The concentration of gains up the cap spectrum isn't itself a precursor to weakness; it's the lack of participation from the "average stock" that warrants some caution.

While we don't expect the U.S. government to default, the uncertainty may heighten market volatility in coming days. Here are answers to some of the questions we're hearing most often.

Although few nations have a debt ceiling similar to the U.S.', rising government debt levels are a widespread global risk that may lead to lower economic output and weaker growth.

Bonds issued by government-sponsored enterprises can offer slightly higher yields than U.S. Treasuries, without requiring investors to take on too much additional risk.

Banks and financial institutions are big issuers of preferred securities, so the recent banking industry volatility has had an impact. Our guidance on preferreds is unchanged but with some caveats.

Analysis shows an extraordinary range of outcomes since the S&P 500's inception in 1928.

As the credit market grows more stringent, investors should consider high-quality, longer-term bonds. Here are some fixed-income strategies.

Political brinkmanship in Washington adds to concerns about the economy.

The central bank likely won't have enough reason to hike rates again this cycle. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see one or two rate cuts later this year.

Shifts in the labor market due to monetary policy tightening would see lagged effects that may not aid central banks' efforts to materially affect core inflation by year's end.

Equities rise as jobs surprise the upside. The U.S. jobs market remains resilient as nonfarm payrolls beat expectations in April.

With unanimity, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points in May and signaled that further tightening will depend on various economic factors.

Leadership shifts at the sector and style levels warrant some additional caution, as well as a closer look as to what investors are buying when it comes to "growth vs. value."

Although investing in in-state municipal bonds may have tax advantages, there can be good reasons to buy out-of-state munis.

Although the House narrowly approved a bill designed to jumpstart negotiations, the issue is far from resolved.

China’s domestically driven economic growth has not yet translated to Emerging Market stock performance, which has tended to have been weighed down by international political tensions.

Corporate bond investors may be wondering if banking sector turmoil will affect financial institution bond issuers. Here's what to know now.

What does a potential change in Federal Reserve policy mean for markets and the economy?

Although central banks may be near the end of the rate hike cycle, short-duration stocks may still be an attractive investment theme should interest rates remain at higher levels.

Trading might be muted today as the market pivots, awaiting earnings and inflation data this week.

In the face of banking stress and a hawkish Federal Reserve, stocks have advanced impressively so far this year, but narrow breadth doesn't bode well for continued strength.

Natural gas prices remain in their steep price decline as the prospects for a large gas surplus heading into the spring is keeping buying interest at bay.

Stocks built on overnight gains and Treasury yields inched lower following today's relatively benign February PCE inflation data.

The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to investigate the collapse of Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB/SIVBQ) that brought to discussion possible changes for the entire banking system.

As we discussed last week in Looking to the Futures, natural gas prices have been plagued by the perfect storm of lower demand and higher production throughout the withdrawal season.

Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.

U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.

U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.

What our experts think about today's market action.

U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.

U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.

U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.

U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Given the topsy-turvy nature of the market thus far in 2023, it remains crucial for investors to know what they are buying—especially as it relates to growth, value, and quality.

U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.

The S&P 500 is rising after falling the past four sessions as equites have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening.

Investors continue to seek signs of a change in season—and clues about how the Federal Reserve might react to it.

Stocks mixed around mid-day as investors digest data.

Corn futures traded higher to start the month with weekly USDA data showing an increase in exports week over week.

Stocks lower as investors digest data, Fed commentary.

Monday’s trading saw oil rise as traders digested China’s return in demand against a continued supply strain and slower growth in world economies.

The April Live Cattle futures, LCJ23, rallied as traders digested the United States Department of Agricultures (USDA) Cattle inventory report.

U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.

U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.

U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.

U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.

U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.

U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.

Gold prices have increased to start 2023 as the dollar index extends last Friday's losses.

The March contract for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERH23) was down for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Since ending 2022 at 112.80, the contract is down 5.03 at 107.77.

Bonds are bouncing into the new year after notching a record annual loss last year.

U.S. equities are solidly higher in afternoon action, paring some of the losses that have plagued the start of 2023.

U.S. equities closed out 2022 in the red, and all three major indexes registered solid losses on a yearly basis. The stock market posted its worst yearly decline since 2008.

The February crude oil contract CLG23 was down over 2% in trading early Thursday.

U.S. stocks are rising in pre-market trading, looking to rebound from yesterday's drop.

U.S. stocks continue to oscillate around the unchanged mark.

U.S. stocks are rising in pre-market action in the first trading session of the week following the long holiday weekend.

U.S. equities are modestly higher but near the unchanged mark in pre-market action.

U.S. stocks are falling sharply, giving up yesterday's rally.

Considering that a new year almost always brings surprises of one form or another, we've highlighted our top five that may define the global markets in 2023.

Inflation trends are moving in a favorable direction, but the change is likely too slow for the Fed to take its foot off the brake anytime soon.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a half point (50 basis points) on Wednesday in line with forecasts.

U.S. stocks are solidly lower as the markets continue to digest the economic implications of yesterday's 50-bp rate hike from the Fed.

U.S. stocks are soaring in pre-market trading amid a softer-than-expected November consumer price inflation report.

For the first time in a long time, muni investors may be able to earn attractive yields without having to take undue risk.

U.S. stocks ended higher in a quiet day, trimming some of the week's losses.

Oil dropped Tuesday on the release of the new Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) released by the Energy Information Administration.

Markets may continue to see volatility in 2023 as they navigate between global economic growth and inflation fears, with central banks' decreasing rate hikes and China's reopening.

U.S. stocks are lower as the new week kicks off, even as China took further measures to ease COVID restrictions.

Weaker economic trends will likely form heading into 2023 as the Fed battles inflation, but a (hopefully) mild recession may help set stocks up for a better second half of the year.

U.S. equities are sliding as investors sift through the November labor report that showed stronger-than-expected job growth.

One of the biggest trades this year has lost steam and its outlook for the next year has become much more mixed.

U.S. stocks are choppy in pre-market trading on the heels of yesterday's drop ahead of tomorrow's comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

U.S. equities are mixed in pre-market trading, but the markets are on track to post weekly gains for the holiday-shortened week.

Oil prices swung down and right back up in Monday’s session among reports that OPEC+ was considering an output increase.

U.S. equities are rising, although no notable directional drivers seem to be in play amid the holiday-shortened week, with the markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and trading in a half day on Friday.

Although off their Thursday lows, equity index prices closed lower yesterday.

High inflation and slow economic growth are a problem for investors. Here's how to shore up your portfolio.

U.S. equities are mixed in restrained trading, with investors awaiting the next two pieces to complete the October inflation picture.

U.S. stocks posted its biggest daily gain since 2020 following data on October’s consumer price inflation (CPI), which came in cooler-than-expected.

U.S. equities are lower as the global markets await the final results of the U.S. midterm elections as the control of the Congress remains undetermined.

U.S. equities finished lower with the Dow whipsawing within a more than 900-point range following the Fed's monetary policy decision.

U.S. equities are declining, struggling to continue the past two week’s positive momentum.

Short-term bonds currently offer higher yields than longer-term ones, but there are risks in holding only short-term bonds.

Markets can have more sway over policymakers than vice versa, as demonstrated in the U.K. recently.

U.S. stocks are trading mixed in pre-market action.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities can be a buffer against long-term inflation, but it's possible for TIPS price declines to outpace principal adjustment in the short term.

Much attention has been paid to the elevated risk (and announcement) of a recession, but investors should instead focus on signals coming from leading economic indicators.

U.S. equities are beginning the new week sharply higher, getting a boost from the U.K.'s decision to abandon nearly all its tax cut plans.

Inflation concerns on Friday once again pulled the rug from under investors struggling to find their footing as the Federal Reserve's battle against rising consumer prices shakes the economic terrain.

U.S. stocks are mixed and subdued as the markets digest another hot inflation report in the form of the September Producer Price Index.

U.S. equities are mixed as investors await this week’s highly anticipated September inflation data.

U.S. stocks are trading modestly lower in pre-market action with the markets awaiting tomorrow's key September nonfarm payroll report.

Stocks extend yesterday’s gains as rates continue to ease.

U.S. equities are higher in afternoon action following a recent plunge to lows not seen since 2020.

Bleeding into this week, the British pound reached its lowest level ever Monday, relative to the U.S. dollar.

Oil has been routing since summer after reaching historic highs of over $130 per barrel, but we may see some relief soon as near-term events may trigger a rally.

U.S. stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading, following yesterday's third-straight 75-basis point rate hike from the Fed.

U.S. stocks are declining in pre-market trading as the markets await the Fed’s highly anticipated monetary policy decision tomorrow.

U.S. equities are modestly higher in afternoon action on the heels of yesterday's sharp drop that came as consumer price inflation surprisingly came in hot.

Silver rallied to start the week as all contract months were up four percent or more.

U.S. stocks are starting the week in positive territory, extending last week's advance that snapped a three-week losing streak.

U.S. stocks are continuing to trade higher in the final session of the week and are on pace to end a three-week losing streak.

The August jobs report delivered something for both economic bulls and bears, but what matters more in the near term is the Fed's focus on seeing a continued easing in labor demand.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments dominated the markets on Friday, with the major indices all seeing a drop of over 3%.

U.S. stocks ended the day in the red, continuing last week's sharp drop following comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday that heightened inflationary concerns.

Equity markets plunged to start the week based on increased FOMC pressure to raise rates to combat inflation.

Crude oil futures ended higher, reversing losses earlier in the week after news that U.S. crude inventories fell sharply.

U.S. stocks are subdued following yesterday’s release of the minutes from the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting.

Crude oil prices dropped substantially to start the week after the dollar rallied.

U.S. stocks have come off the worst levels of the day and are threatening a move into positive territory.

U.S. stocks are moving upward, continuing yesterday's rally, as the markets digest the release of the Producer Price Index.

U.S. stocks are trading mixed in pre-market action, with the markets anticipating tomorrow's start of a flood of July inflation data.

A trifecta of factors support the dollar, including the relatively strong performance of the U.S. economy, tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and safe-haven buying.

U.S. equities finished mixed in choppy trading amid a host of data, events and cautious Fedspeak driving sentiment.

The U.S. has experienced another quarter of reduced output, in the face of high inflation and rising interest rates.

U.S. stocks are trading higher as the Street is reacting positively to softer-than-expected earnings results from some key companies.

Second-quarter earnings growth will mark an expected deceleration in profits, but focus will likely continue to shift to the pace at which outlooks are downgraded.

U.S. stocks are mixed in a subdued session to close out the week, but remain on target for a sharp weekly advance.

Although an economic rebound in China is underway according to government and private sector data, its economy and stock market may remain volatile.

U.S. equities are seeing solid gains, as the bulls look to sustain the rise today after failing to do so yesterday.

The June jobs report was cheered by economic bulls given its strength in level terms, but rates of change among leading indicators don't favor a soft-landing outcome for the economy.

The Federal Reserve's pledge to curb inflation appears to have resonated with the market.

U.S. stocks are seeing pressure in early action following the long holiday weekend, with global recession concerns weighing on sentiment.

The crypto investing front has taken another barrage of body blows, pushing Bitcoin to test the $19,000 per coin level once again.

After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs.

U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.

Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.

Stocks modestly lower ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.

U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.

Sharp, countertrend rallies may continue this year, but aggressive Fed policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, and slower economic growth will likely keep pressure on stocks.

Municipal bonds acquired at too deep a discount could be subject to an additional tax, known as the de minimis tax, which would take a bite out of the after-tax return.

Low inventories drove natural gas prices to their highest level since 2008, while above normal temperatures are putting additional stress on natural gas supply.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, can help protect against inflation over the long run, but in the short term their performance may be dictated more by price declines in the secondary market.

U.S. equities are trading lower in afternoon action with the markets unable to extend yesterday's solid gains.

Stocks start the week higher following recent bearishness.

U.S. equities plunged, finishing near the lows of the day, following disappointing quarterly results from Target Corporation and Lowe's Companies, with both retailers warning of rising cost pressures.

Natural gas prices traded higher to start the week after forecasts show hotter than average temperatures in the United States.

U.S. stocks are trading lower as another week begins on the heels of six-straight weekly losses for the S&P 500.

Charles Schwab May 2022 Market Snapshot with Liz Ann Sonders. 

U.S. stocks suffered another day of losses Monday, as the market continued to weigh the risk that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive anti-inflation campaign could push the economy into recession.

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the fed funds rate by 50 basis points, to a range of 0.75% to 1.0%.

It was quite a month.

Stock prices and bond yields have been moving in opposite directions this year.

U.S. stocks fell Friday, extending a run of weekly losses into its third straight week, as investors reacted to a handful of disappointing earnings reports and the Federal Reserve’s increasingly aggressive language about future interest rate increases.

Recession chatter has picked up increasingly for numerous reasons, not least being the spike in oil prices, slowdown in economic growth estimates, and the Fed's transition from accommodative to tighter monetary policy.

The "end of globalization" is a phrase that has come up a lot lately.

There is no shortage of headwinds facing both the market and the economy: the tragic Russian invasion of Ukraine and attendant commodity/energy crisis; the Federal Reserve's transition from accommodative to tighter monetary policy; and increased chatter of a recession on the horizon; among others.

For the past month, investors have been focused on the war on Ukraine and the economic impact of sanctions.

Preferred securities prices have fallen sharply, presenting an attractive entry point for income-oriented investors who can ride out the volatility.

You’ve researched the nuts and bolts of cryptocurrencies and considered whether you should invest in them.

Unfunded pensions for state and local governments were once expected by some to sink the whole market.

Bouts of market volatility are an unnerving, but normal, feature of long-term investing.

The Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate, to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%, its first rate hike since December 2018.

The past isn’t a perfect predictor of market behavior, but it has proven to be a useful guide.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine overturned a lot of assumptions about the near-term direction of the global economy.

We're changing all our sector calls to "neutral" until there's more clarity on how the Russia-Ukraine war will affect the global economy.

The war between Russia and Ukraine—and subsequent economic and financial ripple effects—has exacerbated stress in global markets and ushered in an acute risk-off environment.

After living through more than two years of COVID-19, its variants, and the attendant supply-chain disruptions and inflation concerns, one thing is clear: Uncertainty is the only certainty.

Markets have already reacted to the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in a textbook manner akin to prior similar events that we have outlined in prior articles on January 31 and February 22.

Preferred securities are a type of investment that generally offers higher yields than traditional fixed income securities, such as U.S. Treasury securities or investment-grade corporate bonds.

In an apparent desire to create a weakened border state unable to join NATO, Russia supported separatists in eastern Ukraine by recognizing the independence of two regions: Donetsk and Luhansk. In support, Russia ordered “peacekeeping” troops to the areas, prompting sanctions by world powers.