Market review Q423
The market has taken a one-sided view on inflation and the Fed's reaction to it, even though other very plausible explanations exist. This illustrates both the power of narrative and the vulnerability of the current consensus.
Market Review Q323: A Change in the Weather
The quarter started off strong enough in July but gave up ground in both August and September. The total return of the S&P 500 was down 3.27% for the quarter.
Areté Market Review Q223: The Interest Rate Parlor Game
The second quarter was characterized by a debt ceiling showdown (which perversely provided a boost to liquidity) and by a big spurt in tech stocks.
Market Review Q123: Reading the Monetary Tea Leaves
Just as it is getting ever-more important to anticipate changes in Fed policy, those changes are becoming more uncertain. One way to help resolve this dilemma is by explicitly incorporating political and public policy goals into the monetary policy calculus.
Areté Market Review Q422: Cash is King-ish
It's easy to take the wrong signal from recent market strength.
Market Review Q322
In the context of a rough year so far, it's a good time to review whether this is just a bump in the road or something more serious to prepare for.
QT on the QT
The Fed's program of QT has flown under the radar for a lot of reasons. That low profile belies its importance, however. Not only is the Fed likely to persist in this program, but it will create a strong headwind for risk assets.
Market Review Q222: Breaking Up is Hard to Do
As investment conditions become more difficult, many investors remain paralyzed, still enthralled by the charms of the Fed's QE program. That relationship no long works for investors so it is time to break up and do something different.
With stocks down around 20% year-to-date, it is important for investors to know what kind of bear they are dealing with.
Market review Q122
The market was tough in the first quarter. Find out what it means for long-term investors.
Arete Market Review Q421: The Low-Rate Conundrum
Rates have seemed lower than they should be for a long time. With inflation surging higher now, it is critical investors solve this puzzle so they can construct portfolios accordingly
Areté market review Q3 21
After solid performance in both July and August, the S&P 500 was considerably weaker in September. It was more than just passing weakness, however. The stock market looked much less the cocksure prize fighter than the contender who took a shot to the jaw that wobbled his knees.
Market review Q221
After a devastating selloff last year and a remarkable rebound since, it's as important as ever to have a good mental model of what is driving the market.
Areté quarterly review Q121: Incorporating inflation
After a long period of disinflation and trending markets, emerging signs of inflation threaten to upend a lot of investment playbooks.