Commentary

Market review Q423

The market has taken a one-sided view on inflation and the Fed's reaction to it, even though other very plausible explanations exist. This illustrates both the power of narrative and the vulnerability of the current consensus.

Commentary

Market Review Q323: A Change in the Weather

The quarter started off strong enough in July but gave up ground in both August and September. The total return of the S&P 500 was down 3.27% for the quarter.

Commentary

Areté Market Review Q223: The Interest Rate Parlor Game

The second quarter was characterized by a debt ceiling showdown (which perversely provided a boost to liquidity) and by a big spurt in tech stocks.

Commentary

Market Review Q123: Reading the Monetary Tea Leaves

Just as it is getting ever-more important to anticipate changes in Fed policy, those changes are becoming more uncertain. One way to help resolve this dilemma is by explicitly incorporating political and public policy goals into the monetary policy calculus.

Commentary

Areté Market Review Q422: Cash is King-ish

It's easy to take the wrong signal from recent market strength.

Commentary

Market Review Q322

In the context of a rough year so far, it's a good time to review whether this is just a bump in the road or something more serious to prepare for.

Commentary

QT on the QT

The Fed's program of QT has flown under the radar for a lot of reasons. That low profile belies its importance, however. Not only is the Fed likely to persist in this program, but it will create a strong headwind for risk assets.

Commentary

Market Review Q222: Breaking Up is Hard to Do

As investment conditions become more difficult, many investors remain paralyzed, still enthralled by the charms of the Fed's QE program. That relationship no long works for investors so it is time to break up and do something different.

Commentary

Bear Watch

With stocks down around 20% year-to-date, it is important for investors to know what kind of bear they are dealing with.

Commentary

Market review Q122

The market was tough in the first quarter. Find out what it means for long-term investors.

Commentary

Arete Market Review Q421: The Low-Rate Conundrum

Rates have seemed lower than they should be for a long time. With inflation surging higher now, it is critical investors solve this puzzle so they can construct portfolios accordingly

Commentary

Areté market review Q3 21

After solid performance in both July and August, the S&P 500 was considerably weaker in September. It was more than just passing weakness, however. The stock market looked much less the cocksure prize fighter than the contender who took a shot to the jaw that wobbled his knees.

Commentary

Market review Q221

After a devastating selloff last year and a remarkable rebound since, it's as important as ever to have a good mental model of what is driving the market.

Commentary

Areté quarterly review Q121: Incorporating inflation

After a long period of disinflation and trending markets, emerging signs of inflation threaten to upend a lot of investment playbooks.

Commentary

Market Review Q420: The Trouble With Bubbles

The trouble with bubbles is they prey on human weakness. They are also high impact investment events.