Commentary

Saudi Arabia Is Swinging Again – But for How Long?

The most recent change on the supply side of the global oil market has involved Saudi Arabia suddenly and dramatically regaining its swing-producer role.

Commentary

What’s the Crypto Regulation Endgame?

Absent a crisis, stiffer regulation of cryptocurrencies could take many decades, especially given that major players are pouring huge sums into lobbying.

Commentary

Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing

With “Team Persistent” having clearly prevailed over “Team Transitory” in the debate over the nature of today’s surging inflation, the question now is whether prices can be tamed without also causing a recession.

Commentary

Beware a Global Economy with Little Fires Everywhere

Rich countries have shown impressive unity in helping Ukraine counter the Russian invasion.

Commentary

The Fed Does Not Deserve All the Inflation Blame

The US Federal Reserve certainly bears its share of responsibility for the great inflation of the 2020s.

Commentary

Private-Debt Risks Are Hiding in Plain Sight

The debt moratoria introduced early in the pandemic provided temporary relief for private borrowers, and may have limited the fallout of the economic disruption.

Commentary

The Growing Threat of Global Recession

With luck, the risk of a synchronized global downturn will recede by late 2022.

Commentary

The Gathering Stagflationary Storm

While recent shocks have made the current inflationary surge and growth slowdown more acute, they are hardly the global economy’s only problems.

Commentary

The Growth Engines Are Sputtering

The International Monetary Fund’s significant downward revision to its 2022 World Economic Outlook, just one quarter into the calendar year, has generated headlines and hand-wringing around the world.

Commentary

This Inflation Is Demand-Driven and Persistent

Although inflation has risen sharply for multiple reasons, increased demand is by far the most important factor.

Commentary

Can the World Afford Russia-Style Sanctions on China?

Many academic studies suggest that sanctions on China or a break in Sino-American economic ties probably would have a smaller quantitative impact than one might think, at least over the medium to long term. But that is a theory better left untested.

Commentary

Is the New Stagflation Policy-Proof?

Like the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine has contributed to the stagflationary pressures in the United States and other advanced economies.

Commentary

The Ukraine War's Multifaceted Economic Fallout

While the Russian and Ukrainian economies are being hit the hardest by Russia's invasion, the economic consequences of the war will not be confined to the countries fighting it.

Commentary

Is the Peace Dividend Over?

One hopes that Russian President Vladimir Putin will soon realize that his Ukraine invasion has been a spectacular miscalculation.

Commentary

The Fed's Historic Error

The US Federal Reserve’s series of suboptimal decisions in the last 12 months regarding inflation means that its next policy decision also is likely to be suboptimal.