Commentary

Sleepwalking on Megathreat Mountain

Whatever one’s favored terminology for describing the current moment, there is widespread agreement that we are facing unprecedented, unusual, and unexpected levels of uncertainty, auguring a future of crisis, instability, and conflict.

Commentary

The Looming Financial Contagion

With inflation on the rise and the era of ultra-low interest rates over, financial markets will face a huge stress test in 2023.

Commentary

More War Means More Inflation

Advanced economies and emerging markets are increasingly engaged in necessary "wars" – some real, some metaphorical – that will lead to even larger fiscal deficits, more debt monetization, and higher inflation on a persistent basis.

Commentary

Another Annus Horribilis for the Fed

Over the past two years, the US Federal Reserve has repeatedly erred in its analysis, policymaking, communications, and governance.

Commentary

The Unavoidable Crash

After years of ultra-loose fiscal, monetary, and credit policies and the onset of major negative supply shocks, stagflationary pressures are now putting the squeeze on a massive mountain of public- and private-sector debt.

Commentary

Done With Deglobalization?

The global economy’s dire and deteriorating prospects, together with the scale of the climate challenge, have apparently opened world leaders’ eyes to the risks that deglobalization poses. But it remains to be seen whether this realization will be followed by the action needed to reverse course.

Commentary

Will Crypto Survive?

With a storyline full of celebrities, politicians, sex, and drugs, the future looks bright for producers of feature films and documentaries about the astonishing collapse of FTX.

Commentary

China’s Diminishing Returns

Gone are the days when China could point to soaring real-estate prices and rising incomes to justify endless new construction.

Commentary

Secular Inflation

After enjoying a long period of deflationary conditions, the global economy is being pushed by a wide range of forces toward a new and more difficult equilibrium.

Commentary

A New Chance for the World Bank

The World Bank should be a major vehicle for crisis response, post-conflict reconstruction, and, most importantly, for supporting the huge investments necessary for sustainable and healthy global development.

Commentary

The Stagflationary Debt Crisis Is Here

The Great Moderation has given way to the Great Stagflation, which will be characterized by instability and a confluence of slow-motion negative supply shocks.

Commentary

The Cost of the Fed’s Challenged Credibility

After previously eschewing interest-rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy at an unprecedented rate.

Commentary

Why US Inflation Is Headed Down

Despite August’s disappointing inflation numbers, the US economy is uniquely equipped to mitigate and overcome the current price surge, owing to its relative energy and food independence, abundance of immigrant labor, strong production capacity, and the capital needed to boost domestic manufacturing.

Commentary

Will Truss Rehabilitate Keynes?

According to conventional economic thinking, incoming British Prime Minister Liz Truss’s economic experiment with borrowing and spending will produce disaster.

Commentary

Will the Dollar’s Surge End in Whiplash?

Some earlier big run-ups in the US currency’s value, including in the mid-1980s and the early 2000s, were eventually followed by sharp declines.