dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

S&P 500 Snapshot: Longest Losing Streak Since August

The S&P 500 fell every day this week, its longest losing streak since last August. Ultimately, the index closed the week down 2.0%, marking its first decline in three weeks.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 26, 2026

The yield on the 10-year note finished June 26, 2026 at 4.38% while the 2-year note ended at 4.07%.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Consumer Sentiment Rises on Cheaper Gas But Inflation Worries Persist

Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in four months as gas prices eased but remains historically low amid ongoing inflation concerns. The final June reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 49.5 marking a 10.5% (4.7 points) increase from April and beating the expected reading of 48.9.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Core PCE Inflation at 3.4% in May, Highest Level Since 2023

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.4% year-over-year in May. This marks the highest level since October 2023 and marks a pickup from April's 3.3% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3%.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Two Measures of Inflation: May 2026

Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.9%.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

The Big Four Recession Indicators

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Continued to Increase in May

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity continued to increase in May. The composite index came in at 8 this month, down slightly from 10 in April but still indicating continued expansion.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in May

With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Economic Growth Decreased in May

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.10 in May from +0.19 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from April, and three categories made negative contributions.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Durable Goods Orders Sink 4.5% in May, Less Than Expected

New orders for manufactured durable goods sank 4.5% in May to $332.05B, slightly less than the projected 5.0% monthly decline.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

GDP Per Capita: Q1 2026 Third Estimate

The third estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 2.09%, an acceleration from 0.48% for the Q4 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.91%, a pickup from 0.18% for the Q4 headline number.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

An Inside Look at the Q1 2026 GDP Third Estimate

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2026 GDP third estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Q1 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at 2.1%, Higher Than Expected

U.S. economic growth rebounded at the beginning of 2026, according to the BEA’s latest estimate. Real GDP rose at a 2.1% annual rate in Q1, exceeding the 1.6% forecast and marking a sharp acceleration from the 0.5% final estimate seen in Q4 of last year.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Initial Unemployment Claims Down 12K, Lower Than Expected

In the week ending June 20th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 225,000.