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The Big Four Recession Indicators

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Hit 5-Year Low

Home values fell for a second straight month in June, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. Additionally, after adjusting for inflation, real home values dropped even more sharply, hitting their lowest level in over five years.

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Consumer Sentiment Hits Highest Level Since February on Easing Gas Prices

Consumer sentiment reached its highest level since February, driven by easing gas prices. The preliminary July reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 54.4. This marks a 9.9% (4.9 points) increase from June and beat the expected reading of 51.0.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Industrial Production

Industrial production rose less than expected in June, increasing 0.1% after May's 0.1% growth. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth and marks a 1.1% increase compared to one year ago.

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Building Permits Fall 3.0% in June

Building permits fell 3.0% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.367 million. The latest reading missed the forecast of 1.400 million.

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Housing Starts Jump 19% in June

Housing starts jumped 19.0% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million, beating forecasts driven by a massive surge in multi-family units.

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Initial Unemployment Claims Down 8K, Lower Than Expected

In the week ending July 11th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 208,000. This represents a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 216,000.

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Top 10 Charts of 2026: Mid-Year Review

Discover the top 10 most-read charts from the first half of 2026, covering historic market valuations, record margin debt, recession indicators, and global index performance.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales

Nominal retail sales were up 0.22% month-over-month and up 6.72% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.64% month-over-month and up 3.15% year-over-year.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Pull Down Builder Sentiment

Builder confidence edged lower in July as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from June to 34 this month, marking the 27th consecutive negative reading.

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Pending Home Sales Sink 5% in June

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, the lowest level since January.

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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps to Highest Level Since 2021

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed activity expanded significantly in July, with the index jumping 31.1 points to 41.4. This marks the highest level for the index since November 2021 and was more than triple the forecast of 12.7.

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Retail Sales Rise for Fifth Straight Month

U.S. headline retail sales increased for a fifth straight month, rising 0.2% to $768.6B in June, while core retail sales fell unexpectedly by 0.2%.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Sits Just Below $65K

Bitcoin's closing price edged higher this week, rising almost 3% to move just below $65,000. However, BTC is currently down approximately 26% year-to-date and sits about 48% below its October 2025 record high.

dshort: AP Charts & Analysis

Gasoline Prices Rise Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Gasoline prices rose for the first time in nine weeks as geopolitical tensions renewed.