S&P 500 Snapshot: Highest Close of the Year
The S&P 500 posted its highest close of the year on Friday as it capped off a fifth consecutive week of gains. The index finished the week up 0.8% from last Friday and is currently up 20.15% year to date.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of November 30, 2023, the 10-year note was 385 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for 13th Straight Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) remained at 46.7 in November. The latest figure marks the 13th straight month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The November reading was below the forecast of 47.6.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Decline in November
The November S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 from 50.0 in October, signaling a renewed decline in operating conditions. The latest reading was consistent with expectations. The index has now fallen back into contraction territory after a brief 1-month expansion.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of November 17th, the index was at 10.531, down 0.444 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes November Up 8.9%
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2023
The S&P 500 closed November with a monthly gain of 8.92%, after a loss of 2.20% in October. After close on the last day of the month, one of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) — is signaling "cash", down from last month's final quadruple "cash" signal.
Two Measures of Inflation: October 2023
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for October shows that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 3.5%. The October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 4.0%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Pending Home Sales Fall to Record Low
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index fell 1.5% in October to 71.4, the index's lowest reading since the NAR began tracking data in 2001, and is down 8.5% compared to one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 2.0% last month.
Chicago PMI Jumps to 17-Month High in November
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) jumped to 55.8 in November from 44.0 in October, marking the highest level in the past 17 months. The latest reading is better than the 45.4 forecast and pushes the index into expansion territory for the first time in 15 months.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in October
With the release of October's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.26% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.44% nominal and 3.33% real.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Increases in October
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.3% in October and is up 5.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year.
Core PCE Inflation Slows as Expected in October
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation slowed as expected in October. Core PCE, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 0.2% from September and slowed to 3.5% year-over-year, the lowest reading in over two years but still above the Fed's 2% target rate.
Unemployment Claims Up 7K, Better Than Expected
In the week ending November 25, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 218,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 220,000.
Moving Averages Month-End Preview: November 2023
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.