Sound and stable money promotes long-term economic growth. And “independent” central banks are more likely to deliver it. For most of the 1800s, the US was on the gold standard, which meant policy was insulated from political interference. But once the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, it became susceptible to political pressures.
Only one month ago the big story about the US economy was how strong it was. The August jobs report, which arrived in early September, showed that payrolls were up 162,000 for the month. Meanwhile, at one point the Atlanta Fed’s “GDP Now” model was estimating real GDP would grow more than 5% at an annual rate in the third quarter.
There is more than one reason the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23% today. Most importantly, the Fed has stopped anchoring interest rates at artificially low levels. Fear of inflation is likely another. However, both of those are related to the massive government debt the US has created.
It wasn’t that long ago that Kevin Warsh’s leading critics were saying his biggest problem was that he wasn’t “independent” from President Trump, that if Trump told him to “jump” he’d ask “how high?” Or, in this particular situation, “how low should interest rates go?”
The Federal Reserve today unanimously decided to raise its short-term interest rate target by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75 – 4.00%, the first hike since mid-2023. The Fed made two key changes to the statement announcing its decision, declaring that “domestic spending has been resilient” and the rate hike “will support a timelier return” to the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
A rate hike on Wednesday is now very likely but would also be unusual, and perhaps dangerous, at least as far as the past generation of monetary policy goes.
Before Friday’s jobs report, it was roughly a toss-up in the financial markets whether the Fed would raise rates at the next meeting in mid-September. Now, the odds favor a rate hike and it’s not hard to see why.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech last week to lay out what he thinks of monetary policy. Two things jumped off the pages of his speech.
James Carville, Bill Clinton’s chief political advisor, once quipped that if he could be reincarnated he wanted to come back as the bond market because “You can intimidate everybody.”
The biggest political news of recent months is the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America. We suppose this started in New York City, with the election of Mayor Zohran Mamdani, but it has spread to Michigan and other states.
Good or bad, right or wrong, estimates suggest that in the past eighteen months the net flow of immigrants (including the number of illegal immigrants who were deported) may have been negative. By contrast, in the prior four years the US took in more than eight million immigrants, on net. All these numbers could be revised or argued with over time.
Kevin Warsh became Fed Chair barely ten weeks ago. He has presided over just two sets of monetary meetings and held two press conferences. Nonetheless, more than any chairman since at least Alan Greenspan, he has come under harsh criticism by the press right out of the gate.
Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as Fed Chair saw no change in rates and minimal edits to the Fed Statement, but included a press conference giving insight into what the Fed is focused on.
The US economy grew 2.0% in 2025 and it looks like it is growing another 2.0% this year. Real GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the first quarter and, as we set out below, it looks like it grew at a 2.0% rate in the second quarter.
We’re back to reading tea leaves! Hooray! Next week the Federal Reserve will have its second meeting since Kevin Warsh officially took the helm. And, at this point, the outcome is far from certain, which is unusual given that ever since Ben Bernanke instituted “forward guidance” the market usually knew what to expect.
As we move toward the mid-term elections, many are making the argument that “democracy is at risk.” We get politicians making this argument, but when supposedly sober political and economic analysts start to make it, we do get worried.
America has proven that men and women not only can make their own history, but they can make it as they please, with circumstances chosen by themselves.
Alan Greenspan passed away last week at the ripe old age of 100. Other than presidents, few Americans have wielded as much power in the arena of economic policy as Greenspan did during his roughly eighteen years and five months at the helm of the Federal Reserve.
The results of Kevin Warsh’s first official set of meetings on monetary policy as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve were like a breath of fresh air.
In Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC held on rates but made significant changes to both their economic projections and the nature of today’s Fed statement. And today’s press conference shows there is a lot more change to come.
This week the Fed has its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. For only the third time in US history, the former Chair, Jerome Powell, will still participate as a regular member of the Board of Governors.
The job market was surprisingly strong in May with non-farm payrolls growing 172,000, beating even the strongest forecasts for the month. As a result, the futures market is now pricing in a quarter-point rate hike later this year and more likely than not another quarter point rate hike sometime in 2027.
A little more than six months ago there were narratives circulating that national housing prices were in an even bigger bubble than the one twenty years ago and headed for an “inevitable” collapse. Given that national home prices dropped about 27% from peak to bottom in the last housing bust, that would be something to worry about.
You don’t have to go very far to find lots of negative commentary in the popular press about the current state of the US economy. High gas prices (due to a “war of choice”) are squeezing consumers’ budgets, and so the economy is headed for a ditch.
One thing most people don’t know is that prior to the invention of the Fed, other than during wars, there was almost no inflation. Various sources including the Federal Reserve regional banks show the purchasing power of $1 in 1900 was the same as or higher than it was in 1800.
The stock market is on an absolute tear, with the Nasdaq up 5% last week and nearly 13% year-to-date. The proximate causes include a cease-fire somewhat holding with Iran, a 28% surge in S&P 500 corporate profits in the first quarter, and some consensus-beating economic reports, like Friday’s payroll numbers.
Kevin Warsh wants to make some big shifts in monetary policy at the Fed. Unfortunately, unless and until soon-to-be former Chairman Jerome Powell steps down from his regular seat on the Federal Reserve Board, Warsh will be Chairman in Name Only.
Geopolitics – beyond the Fed’s control – have added to economic uncertainty and cloud the outlook as Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh (who this morning won the backing of the Senate Banking Committee and will now head to the Senate for final confirmation) looks almost certain to take the reins in just over two weeks.
For all the chatter about Artificial Intelligence lifting economic growth, GDP isn’t showing it yet. We are projecting that real GDP grew at a 2.0% annual rate in the first quarter, matching the average annualized pace of growth since the peak back in late 2007, right before the Financial Panic and so-called Great Recession. In other words, mediocre growth.
The federal government is still on an unsustainable fiscal path with the national debt reaching $39 trillion in March and set to move higher in the years ahead as we keep running budget deficits. However, beneath the headlines both revenue and spending trends have shifted in a positive direction. It’s possible that investors are recognizing this and this may be helping buoy stock markets.
If you expect Kevin Warsh to quickly take the helm at the Fed and start cutting rates, you need to adjust your expectations.
At this point, we think the odds are very high that the Democrats win back the House in the mid-term election in November. Compared to how they did in 2024, the Democrats only have to gain three seats to take back the House.
The US economy grew a pedestrian 2.0% last year and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is currently projecting real GDP growth at a 2.0% annual rate in the first quarter. If anything, we think there is more downside risk than up to the first quarter projection.
The Fed’s decision made sense: don’t change the target for short-term interest rates if we don’t know what the world will look like tomorrow. But investors need to remember a couple of important things. Rate cuts, if they ever come, are less important than the money supply.
As expected, there was no rate cut at today’s meeting, but changes to economic projections and comments at the press conference gave some light into how the Fed is processing political and geopolitical events, and how those events are shaping the Fed’s outlook.
In the aftermath of the first Internet stock-market bubble of the late 1990s the economy went into a relatively shallow recession starting in 2001. That recession was precipitated by a tight monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve setting short-term interest rates consistently above the pace of nominal GDP growth (real GDP growth plus inflation).;
About a month ago the financial markets were surprised by a January jobs report that was stronger than expected. The consensus was for a gain of 68,000 private-sector jobs, but the actual came in at a much higher 172,000.
History may rhyme, but it doesn’t repeat. War is uncertain, and while the US and Israel are dominating, investors would be foolish to assume they know every twist and turn to come. Even here at home, where threats exist.
As we expected, the Supreme Court struck down most of the new tariffs President Trump had imposed since taking office thirteen months ago.
If you’re grading the economy based on real GDP, it looks pretty good; if grading based on jobs, not so much.
President Trump finally made his pick for Fed Chair and it is Kevin Warsh. A Wall Street Journal editorial said Warsh has been “the leading voice in public life for reforming the Fed.”
The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged at the first meeting of 2026, while it waits to see what direction inflation, employment, and other policies take in the months ahead.
The Fed meets on Wednesday to discuss the direction of monetary policy. With the futures market pricing the odds of “no change in rates” at 97.2%, no one should expect a rate cut at this meeting…or, we think, anytime soon.
The data are mixed and trying to draw definitive conclusions from it is virtually impossible. This fog should lead everyone to maintain a cautious investment stance. What does that mean? Be careful concentrating too much in high priced sectors of the market. Broaden out. When driving in fog, drive more defensively.
Last year, we thought economic growth would slow. Verdict: GDP data say we were wrong, employment data say we were right. Last year we thought the stock market would decline. Verdict: it did in March and April, sharply, but the S&P 500 ended the year with an impressive 16.4% gain. Overall, we’d say our negativity was unwarranted.
When it comes to interpreting the economy we put a premium on sobriety. One good piece of economic data doesn’t mean a boom, nor does one bad report mean a bust.
This reflection reexamines the traditional Nativity narrative, suggesting that the "no room at the inn" dilemma was a result of government-mandated census pressures rather than the greed of a private innkeeper.
We’re finally breaking out of the clouds! Economists have mostly been flying blind because of the government shutdown, but this week the data really start to flow again. In particular, we get a partial report on the employment situation in October and a full report for November, retail sales in October, and consumer prices in November.
The Federal Reserve concluded its last meeting of 2025 with another quarter-point rate cut, while maintaining its outlook for only one cut in 2026.
This week features two crucial monetary policy events: the widely anticipated Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, where a rate cut is expected along with new economic projections; and the Senate hearing on Thursday focused on "The Fed's Big Bank Welfare Program" (IORB regime).
