The rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence (AI), while promising increased productivity, is creating a significant and often overlooked strain on the global power grid.
Capital controls can be used to keep investors at home. Bank reserve and liquidity requirements can also be employed for this purpose: U.S. banks hold $2 trillion more in government debt than they did six years ago.
Sports wagering has come a long way since then. Global revenue derived from this activity now exceeds $100 billion, and is expected to grow exponentially in the years ahead.
2025 has not been just a story of U.S. resilience. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region has weathered storms and stayed firmly on course.
The U.S. government shutdown is about to enter its second month. We did not rush to comment on it, because we didn’t think that it would have much of an economic impact. But the risk that lasting damage will be done is rising.
While many lessons have evolved over time, one maxim has never changed for children: look both ways before crossing the street. I reinforced with my children to then look again. We might not see everything on a quick glance, and traffic can change quickly.
Global equity markets have surged this year, in spite of moderate economic growth and an accumulating series of risks. This has led some to worry that valuations have been stretched a little too far. The same can be said of credit markets, which have seen spreads fall to levels last seen in 2007.
So while there is a lot of focus on drug prices, measures taken to date are unlikely to make a meaningful impact on costs paid by the U.S. and its citizens. More fundamental reform would likely take an act of Congress, which would be hotly contested by lobbyists. There is no end in sight for debate on this front.
With the U.S. government shut down, the Labor Department was unable to release the monthly employment report on October 3. You could almost sense the economics community experiencing a kind of withdrawal, not sure of how to cope with the deprivation of data.
The office real estate sector is working through a difficult cycle.
Back in the day, the arrival of the postman was a big deal. E-mail and texting existed only in the dreams of technologists, so people communicated with one another by writing letters.
China continues to struggle with deflation. Producer prices have been falling for more than two years, and consumer prices have been essentially flat over that time.
Independent central banks are a relatively recent concept.
Radical policy changes can launch new economic eras.
Few have accomplished as much as Janet Yellen during the course of their careers. She broke two significant glass ceilings, becoming the first woman to serve as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and as U.S. Treasury secretary.
Younger workers are facing difficult employment prospects.
U.S. trade strategy is a top worry among economists.
Trade negotiations will reveal a nation's favored sectors.
The Marriner Eccles Building, home to the Federal Reserve Board, is an imposing structure that fronts the National Mall in Washington D.C. It was constructed in the wake of the Banking Act of 1935, which created clear separation between the Treasury Department and the central bank.
Ignoring U.S. healthcare problems won't make them go away.
The right level of regulation requires careful calibration.
NATO's new spending pledge eases security concerns but adds to fiscal pressures.
The current round of budget discussions in Washington will have a significant impact on America’s fiscal trajectory decades into the future. A key underpinning of this year’s debate has roots that go decades into the past.
The draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) runs more than 1,000 pages. Analysis of the legislation has focused primarily on its impact on the U.S. federal deficit: the Congressional Budget Office estimates that passage would add almost $3 trillion to the national debt over the coming decade.
I spent the last two weeks of May catching up with partners and clients in Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Hong Kong. Following are some reflections on those conversations.
The strengths of the U.S. economy are likely to endure.
Few leading men of the 1960s and 1970s were more dashing than Clint Eastwood. He played a series of gritty heroes, trying to do right in a world gone wrong.
The signal of announcing trade pacts is an important start.
Tariff talk has been at a fever pitch for the past three months. Its dominance of the news cycle has crowded out discussion of other important economic issues, such as the sustainability of America’s national debt.
In recent times, central bank independence has been taken as gospel. Political pressure for easy money contributed to extremes of inflation in the 1970s.
American leaders are now engaged in an effort to reverse the loss of manufacturing. The hope is to restore a path to prosperity for struggling regions and their residents. Tariffs are being employed liberally as a means to this end.
President Trump has been a vocal admirer of China’s Great Wall, built by the country’s emperors to protect their territory from outside aggression. In his first term, he compared his plan to build a border wall with that historic structure.
A divide has recently developed between soft and hard economic data. At a time when conditions are changing rapidly, understanding the difference between the two is terribly important.
The deferral of “reciprocal” tariffs on most U.S. trading partners suggests that the peak of tariff uncertainty may have passed.
The reciprocal reprieve does not alter the tectonic shift in the trade outlook.
We call upon an expert for the latest on foreign exchange markets.
We’ve written quite a bit on tariffs already this year, and appropriately so. Developments on this front have been significant and are of global consequence.
When breakthroughs occur, researchers get the lion’s share of the credit. But they owe a big debt of gratitude to those who collect and organize the data with which insight is manufactured.
Trade policy clarity is a long way off.
Eggs add to perceptions of high inflation.
At this time of year, those of us who live in the Northern hemisphere are looking forward to a change of season. Statistically, every February week in Chicago should see the daily high temperature rise by 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit, but conditions can vary significantly from expectations.
An escalation seems more likely than diffusion in the U.S.-China trade battle.
Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
The market for washing machines offers lessons for future trade actions.
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
Last weekend, the Cathedral of Notre Dame reopened after being severely damaged in a fire five years ago. It took thousands of craftsmen and a reported €840 million to restore the iconic structure.
Not everyone is ready to give thanks for moderating food prices.
