Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares our view on growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.
I was born too early to benefit much from Sesame Street, but I still loved The Muppets. Kermit the Frog was my favorite character; alternatively in full control and overwhelmed, Kermit struggled to make sense of the nonsensical. To this day, there are times that I feel confronted with the same challenge.
The U.S. economy has shifted into a lower gear, growth has been falling in the Eurozone, Brexit is festering and China is feeling the heat from internal imbalances and an elevated trade spat with the U.S.
The Economics team explores a smooth economic slowdown, elevated consumer confidence, and troubles in Italy.
The U.S. economy is finding its rhythm after an uncertain start to the year.
The U.S. economy will overcome risks and continue to grow in 2019.
Major economies are positioned to keep growing in the year ahead, but risks are mounting.
Economic growth will continue, even in volatile markets.
The global economy looks set to move into a lower gear as both advanced and emerging economies will find it hard to extend their recent robust economic performance into 2019.
The World Trade Organization plays a crucial role in global trade. How essential is it, and what can we expect as trade tensions rise?
With unemployment low and wages rising as we enter the holiday season, consumer spending will continue to lead economic growth.
Long-term bond yields are rising amid positive economic data and rising inflation.
Until this year, the global economy had been characterized by three years of strong, synchronized growth with subdued inflation—the “not too hot, not too cold” characteristics of a “Goldilocks” economy. Though global growth is still relatively resilient, inflation risk is clearly on the rise, driven by high commodity prices and tight labor markets.
Reflecting on ten years since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy: Households have reduced their borrowing, but governments haven’t. Debates over the response to the financial crisis may never end. Non-bank lenders have thrived while managing their risks.
In the span of human history, retirement is a fairly new idea. Only a few generations ago, most of our ancestors could expect to work until the end of their lives. We are happy to report this is no longer the case. Improving longevity brings the opportunity for retirement, but also the responsibility for preparing. Unfortunately, many Americans have not handled this responsibility very well at all.
The U.S. economy is going through a hot summer, but will cool off later this year.
The Northern Trust economics team explores India, recaps revisions to U.S. economic measurements, and gauges potential future economic growth.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for key markets.
The Northern Trust economics team shares its outlook for US economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation, and interest rates in the U.S., U.K., E.U., Japan and China.
The economics team surveys a variety of upcoming events: Mexican elections this weekend, trade battles in the coming months, and LIBOR sunsetting in the years ahead.
Strong growth and employment reports affirm Northern Trust’s positive outlook for U.S. economic performance in the rest of 2018.
Public debt may be growing at the expense of private debt, the Chinese bond market is opening up, and important dates for tariffs are fast approaching.
The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Northern Trust’s economic team recaps recent economic developments and shares our monthly outlook for economic growth, inflation, employment and interest rates in the United States.
Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its quarterly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
We’ve written about the American steel tariffs in each of the last two weeks. But there remain some important points to make on the topic of trade.
We may come to view February 2018 as a turning point for the U.S. economy. For the first nine years of the current expansion, fiscal policy was constrained and trade policy was measured. During the past month, the two have moved with more force, raising important questions about the outlook.
The White House has announced a new set of broad tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The measure is surprising in its scope, its targets and its break from the long-prevailing trends of international trade.
For several years, the U.S. economy has produced a “Goldilocks” combination (neither too hot nor too cold) of solid growth with limited inflation. The absence of price pressures, even at very low levels of unemployment, has surprised many observers.
We’ve been doing some de-cluttering at my house, adapting to life as empty nesters. During a review of some long-forgotten storage bins, I found the very first tax return I ever filed. It listed income of less than $2,000, earned lifeguarding and shelving books at the campus library.
There has been no let-up to the economic news cycle this year. Even the approach of the holiday season has failed to offer a respite, with tax reform deliberations ongoing through the holidays.
This month's forecast follows a wave of generally positive economic data that appeared to shake off the weather-related disruptions seen throughout the summer and early fall.
The current situation in Puerto Rico cannot be fully understood without a bit of a history lesson.
As expected, this month's forecast was a little more difficult to assemble. The influence of severe storms on economic activity and economic data made it harder to discern fundamental trends.
We would do well to heed the teaching of behavioralists as we craft solutions to some of today’s thorniest problems.
The German phrase Sturm und Drang (literally: storm and stress) describes situations that become especially dramatic. This seems an apt expression to describe both the immediate past and the near future for the United States economy.
Supply and demand theories suggest worker scarcity would increase the price paid for labor. This has certainly been the case during recent American expansions, when annual wage gains topped 4%.
Warm temperatures prevail in most of the United States at the moment, a trend that is mirrored in recent economic data. We don't expect conditions to cool as autumn approaches.
Global economic activity has generally been good during the first six months of 2017. Europe’s renewed momentum has been a highlight for the developed world, and China’s steady growth has compensated for faltering elsewhere in emerging markets.
On the surface, China continues to outperform expectations. It has sustained a high rate of economic growth for longer than most other developing countries.
Incoming “soft data” and “hard data” conveyed vastly different U.S. economic conditions as the first quarter unfolded.
My timing in life is terrible. When I book a flight, cumulus clouds immediately begin plotting to cover the destination on the appointed day. When I plan a special menu for a dinner party, the supermarket runs out of a key ingredient.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lost its grip on global production, with the United States (among others) rising to become a significant source of output.
U.S. political issues have dominated the economic headlines for the past month. The failure of the Republican-led House of Representatives to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act delays consideration of tax reform and infrastructure spending.
Over the last decade, a combination of unprecedented global financial integration and unconventional monetary policy in global financial centers created new challenges for central banks in emerging markets (EM).
