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Estimating Future Returns
by Adam Butler and Mike Philbrick of Doug Short, 6/21/11
There are several reasons why it may be useful to have a more robust estimate of future expected returns on stocks: People who are approaching retirement need to estimate probable returns in order to budget how much they need to save. A retiree's level of sustainable income is largely dictated by expected returns over the early years of retirement. And investors of all types must make an informed decision about how best to allocate their capital among various investment opportunities. Many studies have attempted to quantify the relationship between Shiller PE and future stock returns.

Estimating Future Returns: New Update
by Adam Butler and Mike Philbrick of Doug Short, 6/15/11
Traditional Advisors assume that the best estimate of future market returns in all market environments is the simple long-term average return on stocks: about 6.5% per year after inflation. We hypothesized that it is possible to construct a statistical model using long-term market data which will allow us to make much more accurate predictions about long-term returns. It turns out that we were right. Those who are interested in the process we used, and the specifications of our model, are encouraged to read our full report.

Estimating Future Returns: New Update
by Adam Butler and Mike Philbrick of Doug Short, 5/11/11
At Butler|Philbrick, we believe in crunching the numbers ourselves to discover where meaningful relationships exist. We apply statistical models to improve our chances of success. Traditional Advisors assume that the best estimate of future market returns in all market environments is the simple long-term average return on stocks: about 6.5% per year after inflation. We hypothesized that it is possible to construct a statistical model using long-term market data which will allow us to make much more accurate predictions about long-term returns. It turns out that we were right.

Estimating Future Returns
by Adam Butler and Mike Philbrick of Doug Short, 4/5/11
Investors should heed the results of robust statistical analyses of actual market history, and play to the relative odds. This analysis suggests that markets are currently expensive, and asserts a very high probability of low returns to stocks (and possibly other asset classes) in the future. Remember, any returns earned above the average are necessarily earned at someone else's expense, so it will likely be necessary to do something radically different than everyone else to capture excess returns going forward.

Postcard from Taiwan
by Mike Lin of Matthews Asia, 2/4/11
To help manufacturers with factories in China cope in an environment of rising wages, labor shortages and a rising renminbi, one leading Chinese industrial automation device producer we spoke with described a trend of investments in industrial automation to reduce the reliance on labor and boost profitability. Furthermore, Chinese manufacturers will need to shift from business models based purely on pricing, and evolve into producers of higher margin, value-added products. We believe this trend should benefit not only Chinese automation firms but also automation companies abroad.

Q410 Market and Economic Commentary
by Mike Timm of Granite Investment Advisors, 1/29/11
We remain positive on equities. Valuations on large capitalization stocks remain attractive. Though smaller cap companies outperformed large cap stocks in 2010, we believe the valuation gap will close in 2011 in large part because many of the large cap names have significant sales exposure to emerging economies around the world. In fixed income, we continue to favor corporate securities with maturities shorter than five to six years, cushion bonds, step-up bonds, and selected non-investment grade bonds. We expect rates to continue to rise over the next eighteen months.

It's a Break-out!
by Mike Hurley of Incline Capital, 9/28/10
While stocks are overbought and may well pull back over the short term, market internals are in good shape and suggest stocks will likely headed higher over the intermediate term. Specifically, both breadth and leadership are confirming the ?break-out,' with the next key question being how they compare if and when stocks will challenge their early 2010 highs. A key factor in the strength in equites has clearly been interest rates, which have moved sharply lower over the past six months. This has not only helped stocks move higher, but gold as well.

Looks Like a Bottom!
by Mike Hurley of Incline Capital, 9/7/10
WWhile the odds suggest stocks are most likely headed higher from here, trend-following indicators such as the 'golden cross' or the weekly MACD have yet to confirm a new intermediate term up trend. The MACD is quite close however, which would reverse the 'sell' signal it registered during the the week of May 7. Commodities are looking ready to move higher as well.

On Critical Support
by Mike Hurley of Incline Capital, 8/27/10
While stocks have so far held key areas of support, there is a very real chance the equity markets are forming a cyclical top. The action in the weeks ahead will be absolutely critical.

Technical Market Take
by Mike Hurley of Incline Capital, 8/14/10
Market technical are of concern technically. Specifically, there was not only a noticeable absence of new 52-wk highs during the recent bounce in equities, but last week?s decline saw more than twice the number of new lows, than new highs (A). Most definitely action which supports the opinion that stocks may well be forming some type of cyclical top. The bottom line being, that the market continues to suggest that the wisest course of action going forward is to underweight equities (or avoid them entirely, depending on suitability) while overweighting bonds.

A Quick Review of Gold
by Mike Hurley of Incline Capital, 8/7/10
Mike Hurley presents charts of prices for gold contracts, as well as two key gold stocks: Newmont Mining and El Dorado Gold Corporation. It looks pretty clear that gold, and the stocks shown, are in good shape technically and ready to move meaningfully higher from here - despite what many of the bears are saying. It will be a very different story once gold breaks the up trend line shown, but until then the market itself is saying that it's 'all clear ahead!'

No Man's Land
by Mike Hurley of Incline Capital, 8/4/10
Rallying nicely on the month of July, the U.S. markets moved back through key areas of resistance and in doing so have formed what may end up being be ?bear traps? on their charts. While the jury remains out on the direction of equities, however, interest rates literally across the board have broken important support levels. Among these are yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which are now below 3 percent, and are headed lower from here. This is a trend which may well have legs, and which advisors should include in their planning for clients going forward.

Mike Hurley?s Technical Take (7/26): A Bear Trap?
by Mike Hurley of Incline Capital, 7/26/10
While we have not yet seen a trend-following 'buy' signal in the weekly Moving Average Convergence/Divergence, stocks could continue to rally from here over the short term ? particularly given that the Stochastics are just now moving off oversold levels. The more important question is whether or not the strength will become anything more than a 'right shoulder' of a head and shoulders-type topping formation. Mid-cap stocks will most likely outperform on the upside should the market move higher in the weeks ahead.

Failing at Resistance
by Mike Hurley of Incline Capital, 7/22/10
Technically speaking, after finding support at its 200-day moving average in February while in an uptrend, the S&P 500 is now finding resistance at that key line. This is action indicative of a down-trend, as are the 'lower highs & lower lows' which are clearly taking shape on the chart. The overseas markets are also struggling, with the most glaring example being the EAFE. In the case of the 10-yr U.S. Treasury bonds, breaking 3.2 percent moves yields out of a yearlong trading range and signals that significantly lower yields are most likely ahead.

The Good News (About the Bad News)
by Mike Ryan of Paragon Asset Management, 7/5/08
Results 401–415 of 415 found.