Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole shifts the outlook for interest rates.
China’s economy has propagated itself through branches like trade, finance and infrastructure. But supply chains are where its roots have thickened into trunks, particularly across Southeast Asia.
Few have accomplished as much as Janet Yellen during the course of their careers. She broke two significant glass ceilings, becoming the first woman to serve as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and as U.S. Treasury secretary.
AI’s long-term potential remains strong, but supply chain risks and uneven adoption may impact near-term gains.
Resilient data continues to fuel market momentum, but policy risks and global fragility remain close behind.
Switzerland lacks leverage to challenge punitive tariffs.
Limited price collection will complicate estimates of inflation.
Younger workers are facing difficult employment prospects.
The U.S. economy is like a finely tuned sports car—powerful, tough, and built for speed. It has managed to climb steep inclines in recent years, competently maneuvering past multiple roadblocks.
A cooler labor market was long in the making.
Trade deals demonstrate that tariffs are here to stay.
A sharp shift in Fed expectations may trigger bond-market volatility while concerns about the economy may impact equities.
U.S. trade strategy is a top worry among economists.
An ambitious policy yielded great gains and high debts.
Trade negotiations will reveal a nation's favored sectors.
Constant threats are souring U.S. relations with its trading partners. Stop-gap deals of the kind agreed recently will not mark the end of the trade war, as the pacts leave high tariffs in place.
The Marriner Eccles Building, home to the Federal Reserve Board, is an imposing structure that fronts the National Mall in Washington D.C. It was constructed in the wake of the Banking Act of 1935, which created clear separation between the Treasury Department and the central bank.
Trade-dependent Asia-Pacific (APAC) economies are at great risk from the U.S. reciprocal tariff plan. After a three-month deferral, a new series of letters from the White House suggests that the levies will go into force on August 1.
Trade tensions spread to the copper and pharmaceutical markets.
Ignoring U.S. healthcare problems won't make them go away.
U.S. trade policy movements are starting to resemble a soap opera. Following a series of threats, escalations and suspensions, President Trump has extended the tariff deadline to August 1.
Everything that our team publishes has been through peer review. We candidly call out every opportunity we see to improve each other’s writing, from quibbling over word choices to challenging an essay’s entire premise.
The right level of regulation requires careful calibration.
Uncertainty has not impaired overall economic performance.
Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.
An economy cannot subsist on services alone.
Only a subset of subsidies will be rolled back.
Growth is expected to decelerate, but not come crashing down.
NATO's new spending pledge eases security concerns but adds to fiscal pressures.
The Fed left rates unchanged and signaled it’s still in wait-and-see mode, even as inflation risks and policy uncertainty persist.
OBBBA sets a path for more borrowing ahead.
Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries remains intact.
The current round of budget discussions in Washington will have a significant impact on America’s fiscal trajectory decades into the future. A key underpinning of this year’s debate has roots that go decades into the past.
The U.S. economy is growing accustomed to elevated uncertainty.
The draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) runs more than 1,000 pages. Analysis of the legislation has focused primarily on its impact on the U.S. federal deficit: the Congressional Budget Office estimates that passage would add almost $3 trillion to the national debt over the coming decade.
To anyone going through a breakup, just remember this lyric from Bernadette Peters: “If I’m patient the break will mend and one fine morning the hurt will end.”
I spent the last two weeks of May catching up with partners and clients in Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Hong Kong. Following are some reflections on those conversations.
U.S.-Europe negotiations involve more than just tariffs.
The strengths of the U.S. economy are likely to endure.
An "end-to-end" approach in process management means handling a task or product from its initial planning stages to the finishing point or delivery, without relying on intermediaries for specific steps. No nation does this better than China.
Some of the most useful financial advice has a homespun tone, like to make hay while the sun is shining or save up for a rainy day. I recently encountered another helpful idea in that vein: Think of your house like a family member who is always sick.
Few leading men of the 1960s and 1970s were more dashing than Clint Eastwood. He played a series of gritty heroes, trying to do right in a world gone wrong.
A KEY PLANK of the new administration’s economic policy has been to embrace tariffs, a sharp reversal of decades of free market trade.
Markets rallied after a surprise tariff rollback, but with valuations stretched and policy signals still mixed, investors appear to be leaning toward flexibility, fundamentals, and selective exposure.
Trade pacts with America will not mean a return to the old normal.
In the aftermath of the 2018 trade skirmishes with China and the pandemic, nearshoring and friendshoring quickly became buzzwords. But like many other catch phrases, these two may soon fade from usage and memory.
Debt collectors have been unpopular since ancient times, but they play a necessary role in the lending lifecycle. Their jobs are not easy: I recall one collector noting that there are few ways to communicate with defaulted borrowers.
The signal of announcing trade pacts is an important start.
China has been a focal point of American trade policy for many years, but tensions were escalated early in the second Trump term.
The U.S. may not walk back all of the new tariffs.
