We believe it’s not too late for investors to seek attractive relative value opportunities and reposition equity exposures in this aging cycle.
In recent weeks Brent crude oil, the global oil benchmark, has shifted into backwardation – a state when spot prices are higher than prices for futures contracts, creating a downward-sloping curve for futures prices.
An analysis of default rates and government intervention since the financial crisis.
Russia has been front-and-center of the news this summer. Yet Western sanctions over Crimea, fallout from the investigation into meddling in the U.S. presidential election and last month’s bailout of the nation’s largest privately held bank have failed to thwart Russia’s emergence from stagflation.
With great fanfare, the White House and Republican congressional leadership released their long-awaited framework for tax reform, but many politically thorny issues need to be resolved – and quickly – before investors can feel confident that tax reform will materialize in the coming months.
We see three risks to the outlook for steady economic growth. Yet we also see opportunities for investors to target above-benchmark returns while emphasizing defense at a time of low volatility and full valuations.
Tail risk hedging seeks to protect gains without loss of upside equity potential.
Broad-based support for Europe among Germany’s key political parties vying for seats in the Bundestag’s 19th legislative period meant Sunday’s election was unlikely to be disruptive for financial markets. And the muted reaction in financial markets Monday morning confirmed this was the case.
Master limited partnerships, once considered utility-like yield instruments, have come to be viewed largely as leveraged commodity investments – but is the pendulum about to swing back?
Going into today’s important Federal Reserve meeting (with a press conference and an update to the economic projections, aka the “dot plot,” along with the usual statement), we at PIMCO along with most market participants expected the Fed to announce formally the start of balance sheet reduction this fall, perhaps in October. And that’s exactly what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did.
After a sustained period of return leadership by U.S. stocks, a number of diversifying assets now appear poised for outperformance.
As many observers expected, after five months of surprisingly soft inflation prints, prices firmed in August. U.S. core CPI inflation (which excludes the volatile food and energy categories) was up 0.25%, boosted by the largest-ever one-month increase in hotel prices and surprising firmness in rents and owners’ equivalent rents (OER).
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Unmet borrower needs continue to grow in the U.S. commercial real estate lending market.
Analysis of environmental, social and governance factors (ESG) is particularly important for bank investments because the confidence of their depositors and borrowers largely drives banks’ valuations.
Momentum, trend-following, managed futures - are terms that can seem intimidating and opaque for many investors. But, while these types of investment strategies may be less familiar than traditional strategies, they can be quite intuitive and offer attractive diversification and return potential that is worth getting to know.
Our approach to investing in long duration and long credit portfolios has delivered meaningful alpha over most market cycles.
After an uncharacteristically eventful August in Washington, Congress returns to D.C. for an even busier fall: In September, it has a mere 12 legislative days to fund the government for fiscal 2018 (and thus avoid a shutdown), raise the debt ceiling and address a smattering of other must-pass bills...
Although inflation may seem a distant threat, even modest inflation can prove devastating to retirees who depend on income that does not adjust with inflation.
Who will be the next governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)? This is an important question to be answered in the next several months, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s current term will expire in April of next year.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium delved into history but offered few clues about the future course of Fed policy.
With critical policy pivots on the horizon, investors should approach asset allocation with full appreciation for downside risk and stay focused on relative value and security selection.
U.S. exploration and production (E&P) companies delivered mixed second-quarter earnings results and guidance, with evidence of operational missteps by certain Permian Basin producers. One particular large producer’s report of drilling delays, higher planned well costs and higher gas-to-oil ratios sparked broader concerns about whether Permian producers can maintain efficiencies and execute on plans to drill larger wells.
The use of credit to fuel growth in China is weakening, a trend that has begun to depress demand for imports. Given China’s seminal role as an engine of global growth, the ripple effects will weigh on growth prospects for the countries most exposed to Chinese demand, including those in Asia and Latin America.
The news coming out of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was a reference in the statement that the Federal Reserve expected to begin to implement its balance sheet normalization program “relatively soon,” which we (along with many market participants) took to mean at the upcoming September meeting.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes
Following another underwhelming U.S. CPI report, it’s now entirely possible that core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, currently at 1.5% – will end the year at 1.3%, a far cry from the central bank’s 2% target.
Another underwhelming rise in the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported on Friday increases the chances that Federal Reserve policymakers use the September meeting to signal they plan to abstain from additional interest rate hikes until next year.
Over the next 12 to 24 months, we expect that Asia, led by China, will become a far more significant part of the global capital markets – and global investment portfolios.
Outcomes from the most recent state budget season, which concluded for most U.S. states on 30 June, underscore the need for caution among municipal bond investors.
Earlier this year, Argentina, the Czech Republic and Uruguay joined the bellwether benchmark for the asset class, JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified, taking the total to 18 countries. China, Egypt and another three countries may enter the index next year. The inclusions will make the EM local debt asset class much larger, deeper and more liquid.
Over the past quarter century, large and ever-larger companies have significantly increased their share of total intra-industry sales across a majority of industries. These superstar firms – including Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Alphabet’s Google (known collectively as FAANG) – increasingly dominate their respective industries in terms of revenues, profits and stock market capitalization. The winner these days may not take all, but most.
After Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reshuffled his Cabinet on 3 August, the big question is whether his administration can regain public support. In just the last two months, Abe's public approval ratings have plunged to around 30% – low enough to raise red flags.
The muni backdrop looks benign, but be mindful of potential credit risks.
Bond investors are from Mars, and central bankers are from Venus – or so suggests the bond market’s negative reaction to signals that the exceptional monetary policy accommodation of the last decade is winding down. Risk-asset markets, however, are ignoring the red flags that the bond markets are waving. Are they right?
The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced on 27 July that it would not sustain the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) – the key (and controversial) benchmark for hundreds of trillions of derivatives contracts – after 2021.
Five years ago this week, Mario Draghi’s landmark “whatever it takes” speech turned the tide of the euro crisis, the president effectively clarifying the European Central Bank’s role as a conditional lender of last resort to eurozone sovereign borrowers.
Much of the world has been waging a cold currency war since the autumn of 2016, and so far the winner is Donald Trump. The dollar rally that followed the U.S. election is over, and this past week the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, which tracks the dollar’s value versus a weighted basket of major currencies) sank to its lowest level in more than a year.
Asia’s integration into world financial markets may be accelerating.
When PIMCO professionals gather for our annual Secular Forum to discuss the long-term global economic outlook, views on Europe invariably gravitate on two themes: anemic GDP growth and political risk.
Why is the U.S. housing sector diminishing when demand for housing remains robust?
The Federal Reserve is likely to begin normalizing its balance sheet in 2017. Why hasn’t this news rattled the bond market?
A growing number of Federal Open Market Committee officials have voiced concerns over decelerating inflation since the June FOMC meeting, and the latest inflation print likely did little to alleviate them.
Since the global financial crisis, the notion of what constitutes an appropriate liquidity management and capital preservation strategy has become a source of heated debate among professional institutional investors and retail-oriented allocators alike, with varying opinions on how to balance a preference for returns against the need for immediate liquidity and capital preservation.
After 25 years of steady economic growth, Australia is on the verge of wresting bragging rights from the Netherlands for the longest period on record without a recession. While this historic event should be celebrated, the future may not be as rosy.
An active approach to the complex, fragmented municipal bond market may help investors avoid several common drawbacks of passive strategies.
Equity market peaks (and troughs) are impossible to identify in advance. But this doesn’t mean that equity investments should simply be “set it and forget it.”
The Federal Reserve hiked rates as expected at its meeting on 13–14 June 2017, and it made news by providing important details about its plans to normalize its balance sheet. However, one crucial detail the Fed did not provide: when it will commence that process of balance sheet normalization.
