Over the next several quarters, monetary conditions will likely be set not only by Fed balance sheet policies, but also by the expected path of interest rates.
A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.
Major economies are contracting, but extraordinary policy responses could limit severe recessions to this year.
Evidence from decades and even centuries ago, plus the unique circumstances of the current global health crisis and its economic impact, suggests we can expect a “New Neutral 2.0” of lower interest rates for longer.
The U.S. labor market disruption is the worst the country has experienced in recent memory, suggesting that the decline in overall activity could also be much more severe.
The Fed has moved aggressively to stabilize core assets, including mortgages. Yet several market indicators are still concerning.
Our baseline economic forecast is a U-shaped global recovery, but substantial unknowns remain.
The $2.2 trillion stimulus is the biggest ever, but Congress will likely be forced to do even more.
Liquidity could remain challenged, but valuations may be attractive for long-term investors.
The conditions for a relatively quick and robust rebound rest on the success in containing the virus within a reasonable horizon, and a well-calibrated economic policy response.
The Fed’s aggressive support may help keep markets functioning, hasten recovery and avoid longer-term damage.
Research Affiliates assesses the potential impact of COVID-19 on economies and investments, and what it means for the All Asset strategies.
A bolder fiscal response to the rapidly spreading coronavirus has become an economic and political imperative.
Governments and central banks have started to respond more forcefully to the health crisis, enacting policy in an effort to limit long-term damage to the global economy.
The European Central Bank (ECB) didn’t follow other major central banks and refrained from cutting interest rates in response to the coronavirus outbreak. This signals a shift in the central bank’s preferred policy tools – read more.
The Fed announced two actions Thursday in response to stress in the market for U.S. Treasuries.
As the oil surplus builds, we expect U.S. crude oil to linger at $30-$40 per barrel for the next several months.
The Bank of England and the British government both announced easing measures to counter the effects of the coronavirus on the economy – how effective can we expect these measures to be?
Fed rate cuts may be less effective at boosting the economy or markets as societies grapple with the spread of COVID-19, but other policy measures may help.
Global growth could follow a U-shaped path over the next few quarters, though substantial uncertainty remains as policymakers grapple with the impact of the coronavirus.
Senator Joe Biden is the current front-runner in a two-person race for the Democratic nomination, but upcoming state contests are crucial.
In recognition of International Women’s Day on 8 March, Cady Johnson shares her perspective on gender equality in the financial services industry.
The Federal Reserve wants to avoid a crisis of confidence.
The Fed could give the economy a powerful boost by maintaining the mix of assets on its balance sheet.
In recognition of International Women’s Day on 8 March, Candice Stack and David Forgash discuss the internship program PIMCO hosts in partnership with Girls Who Invest.
Municipal bond investors worried by the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals’ affirmation of a lower court’s decision regarding the Puerto Rico Highway Transportation Authority should rest a bit easier: The ramifications will likely be limited.
Read our key takeaways from our 2020 Asset Allocation Outlook, including how we are positioning multi-asset portfolios in light of our outlooks for the global economy and markets.
Three key themes from our latest Cyclical Outlook will likely drive the global economy and central bank policy in the year ahead.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Research Affiliates examines how different asset classes perform across full market cycles, and discusses how macro forecasts inform its investment strategies.
This time, it’s the riskier segments of the corporate credit market – not housing – that could trigger the next downturn.
We think investors should not extrapolate too much from who wins the early contests, including Iowa.
How can leaders in finance embrace the Davos 2020 theme of “Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World”? Here are our key observations.
As the Fed winds down its T-bill and repo programs, we don’t anticipate market volatility to emerge – at least not as a result of the Fed’s actions.
Questions about environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues are becoming central to commodity markets and capital allocation discussions.
In prioritizing stability over all other objectives, China is borrowing from future growth while reducing policy ammunition to counter future shocks.
Alongside pockets of weakness in credit markets come pockets of opportunity for active managers who focus on rigorous bottom-up research and careful credit selection.
Tensions in the Middle East and North Africa have once again brought geopolitical risks to the forefront of oil markets.
Research Affiliates provides its outlook for 2020 and discusses where it sees attractive return opportunities across the globe.
The outlook for the global economy has improved over the past three months, but there may be less capacity to combat a recession when it comes. We discuss seven key macroeconomic themes we expect in 2020 and implications for investors.
DC plan sponsors are increasingly using TDFs that blend active and passive strategies to seek lower fees and enhanced alpha potential.
Muni issuers are increasingly refinancing tax-exempt munis in the taxable market, but both areas offer potential benefits.
The U.S.-China trade deal is one of three diminishing policy risks, but investors shouldn’t assume that all policy uncertainty has been eliminated.
While the election result reduces Brexit uncertainty significantly, it doesn’t eliminate it. Will there be an extension of the transition period? How will any deal affect the economy? In the meantime, UK banks and sterling, especially wounded since the 2016 referendum, still offer value, while low-yielding gilts look unattractive relative to other government debt, such as U.S. Treasuries.
In its December forecasts, the Federal Reserve estimates that the policy rate will hold steady through 2020. Will economic and trade developments change that view?
Research Affiliates discusses why they believe value investing is still alive and well and explains how changes to the display of expense ratios seek to enhance clarity for investors.
The recent repo squall shined a spotlight on “sponsored repo” transactions, a growing segment of the U.S. overnight funding market.
