In April of 2018, I wrote an article entitled “10-Reasons The Bull Market Ended In 2018” in which I concluded:
“There is a reasonably high possibility, the bull market that started in 2009 has ended. We may not know for a week, a month or even possibly a couple of quarters. Topping processes in markets can take a very long time.
If I am right, the conservative stance and hedges in portfolios will protect capital in the short-term. The reduced volatility allows for a logical approach to further adjustments as the correction becomes more apparent. (The goal is not to be forced into a ‘panic selling’ situation.)
If I am wrong, and the bull market resumes, we simply remove hedges and reallocate equity exposure.
‘There is little risk, in managing risk.’
The end of bull markets can only be verified well after the fact, but therein lies the biggest problem. Waiting for verification requires a greater destruction of capital than we are willing to endure.”
It is important to remember, that “Risk” is simply the function of how much you will lose when you are wrong in your assumptions.
2018 has been a year of predictions gone horribly wrong.
Not surprisingly, after a decade-long bull market, individuals who were betting on a more positive outcome this year are now clinging to “hope.”
Do you remember all of the analysis about how:
- Rate hikes won’t matter
- Surging earnings due to tax cuts will power the market higher
- Valuations are reasonable
These were all issues which we have heavily questioned over the last couple of years.
And the majority of our warnings “fell on deaf ears” as just being simply “bearish.”