Commentary

The “Broken Clock” Fallacy & The Art Of Contrarianism

Some state that “bears are like a ‘broken clock,’ they are right twice a day.” While it may seem true during a rising bull market, the reality is that both “bulls” and “bears” are owned by the “broken clock syndrome.”

Commentary

Private Equity – Why Am I So Lucky?

Lately, I have been getting many questions about investing in private equity. Such is common during raging bull markets, as individuals seek higher rates of return than the market generates.

Commentary

Earnings Bar Lowered As Q2 Reports Begin

Wall Street analysts continue significantly lowering the earnings bar as we enter the Q2 reporting period. Even as analysts lower that earnings bar, stocks have rallied sharply over the last few months.

Commentary

Career Risk Traps Advisors Into Taking On Excess Risk

Financial advisors get a bad rap. Some deserve it; most don’t. The problem for the entire investment advisory and portfolio management community stems from the “career risk” they inevitably face.

Commentary

S&P 6300? Is That Outside The Realm Of Possibility?

Goldman Sachs recently upped its price target to S&P 6300 for the end of this year, along with Evercore ISI upping its year-end target to 6000. Such is not surprising given the strong run in the markets this year.

Commentary

A Fundamental Shift Higher In Valuations

Over the last decade, there has been an ongoing fundamental debate about markets and valuations. The bulls have long rationalized that low rates and increased liquidity justify overpaying for the underlying fundamentals.

Commentary

Consumer Survey Shows Rising Bullishness

The latest consumer survey data from the New York Federal Reserve had interesting data.

Commentary

Grant: Rates Are Going Much Higher. Is He Right?

Recently, James Grant, editor of the Interest Rate Observer, was asked about his outlook for interest rates. He sees interest rates moving in a cyclical pattern, potentially rising for another multi-decade period.

Commentary

It’s Not 2000. But There Are Similarities.

More than a few individuals were active in the markets in 1999-2000, but many participants today were not. I remember looking at charts and writing about the craziness in markets as the fears of “Y2K” and the boom of “internet” filled media headlines.

Commentary

Commodities And The Boom-Bust Cycle

It is always interesting when commodity prices rise. The market produces various narratives to suggest why prices will keep growing indefinitely. Such applies to all commodities, from oil to orange juice or cocoa beans. For example, Michael Hartnett of BofA recently noted.

Commentary

Deviations From Long-Term Growth Trends Back To Extremes

In 2022, we discussed the market’s deviations from long-term growth trends. That discussion centered on Jeremy Grantham’s commentary about market bubbles.

Commentary

Electricity Demand May Cure Debt Concerns

The future of electricity demand for everything from electric cars to Bitcoin mining to artificial intelligence may also be the cure for our debt concerns.

Commentary

No, Corporate Greed Is Not The Cause Of Inflation.

Corporate greed is not causing inflation, despite the claims of many on the political left who failed to understand the very basics of economic supply and demand.

Commentary

The Risk Of Recession Isn’t Zero

As we discussed recently, Wall Street economists increasingly believe the risk of recession has fallen sharply.

Commentary

Benchmarking Your Portfolio May Have More Risk Than You Think

During ripping bull markets, investors often start benchmarking. That is comparing their portfolio’s performance against a major index—most often, the S&P 500 index. While that activity is heavily encouraged by Wall Street and the media, funded by Wall Street, is benchmarking the right for you?