Treasury Yields: The Long and Winding Road to 5%

Back in 2012 I wrote an article entitled, "The long and winding road back to 5% Treasury yields." At the time, I estimated that it would take at least another three years for yields to climb that high after the economic damage done by the great financial crisis of 2008. But a few years turned into a decade, as inflation and economic growth remained tame, and the global pandemic sent yields plunging back to near zero.

Now that yields have recovered from that lost decade and look poised to move even higher, it seems like a good time to re-assess the outlook for rates and portfolio positioning.