Economists No Longer Expect A Recession. Are They Right?

Economists no longer expect a recession. Such was according to a recent WSJ survey of Wall Street economists. To wit:

In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.”


The Federal Reserve also suggests the same. Following the September FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated its “higher for longer” mantra and upgraded its economic forecast to include a “no recession” scenario.

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“Fueling the optimism are three key factors: inflation continuing to decline, a Federal Reserve that is done raising interest rates, and a robust labor market and economic growth that have outperformed expectations.” – WSJ