Policymakers and forecasters were slow to change their mindset about inflation.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
The Fed will need some luck on its side to deliver another soft landing.
The dollar is not as dominant as it was two decades ago, but is still the leading global currency.
The yield curve's movements are unlikely to change the Fed's course.
The war in Ukraine will weigh on the rest of Europe.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth and interest rates in a context of high inflation.
Russia's actions will have immediate and long-term ramifications.
Inflation in the housing market will continue to build.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for inflation and how the Federal Reserve will react.
The size and timing of QT will depend on financial conditions and the evolution of inflation.
Ongoing labor market shifts are a risk to economic growth.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the Federal Reserve and the U.S. economy.
Excess cash has accumulated in every corner of the economy.
A legislative impasse raises bigger questions about public finances.
The Fed has made a sharp pivot by accelerating the tapering of its asset purchases.
The economics teams reflects on six themes that defined an extraordinary year.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.
The new variant will test our ability to live with COVID-19
Once started, wage-price spirals are hard to stop.
Boosting confidence in public health is essential to a durable economic recovery.
The phrase “behind the curve” originates from aviation. The “power curve” maps an airplane’s speed to the thrust applied by the engine. This relationship varies with conditions; being behind the power curve can risk stalling or damaging the plane.
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to dealing with COVID-19.
Global themes we are tracking: public health, de-globalization, policy retreat, technology and the East and West divide.
The outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond is positive, but the recovery remains uneven. The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Personal trading could undermine public trust in the Federal Reserve.
The Delta variant’s impact on supply chains and domestic spending slowed economic activity in the third quarter. Consumer confidence dipped noticeably, and businesses’ outlook dimmed somewhat. Rising inflation, the product of goods and labor shortages, has been a concern.
Several events will have major influences on the global economy in the months ahead.
The spillover from the property sector to the broader economy could be significant.
The Fed governors will soon decide when and how to taper asset purchases.
Evergrande is an example of the risk of debt defaults to China's financial stability.
Floods, fires and droughts are growing risks.
A puzzling jump in retired Americans should reverse soon.
Measures aimed at containing COVID-19 will suppress growth and stress inflation.
The recovery has had its ups and downs, but the economy is moving in the right direction.
The debate over post-pandemic scheduling often centers on productivity.
A firm economic recovery is well underway, but the fast-spreading Delta variant is clouding the outlook.
Delta has the potential to alter the path of recovery; central banks are rising to face heavy challenges; and U.S. states have survived a major stress event.
Workers have the upper hand, but not for long; Latin America stagflates; and Sweden provides a case study in COVID-19 response.
Reflecting on a busy six months of vaccines, inflation, trade relations, supply chains, and policy challenges.
Brexit is as complicated as we expected, but restaurants are reviving and aircraft tariffs are suspended.
Many economies are now in advanced stages of economic reopening, but some are still struggling.
COVID made demographic challenges even more complicated, but that hasn't slowed demand for houses in the U.S.
