We are in the time of year when Americans pack transatlantic airliners for their European vacations. I had actually hoped to be one of them. That didn’t work out but we can still talk about events in Europe. And we probably should, because potentially major changes are happening.
No investor wants to miss the wave of a massive, transformational technology. Spot these big shifts early, and you have a chance at Nvidia-like returns.
Last week we had our quarterly live call for Yield Shark subscribers. We had some great conversations over the course of the hour. One of the major topics that came up was what will happen through the end of the year. Will we see a correction or a rotation? If so, when will this happen? And most important, how can we prepare?
Long-time readers know I have not been a fan of the Chevron deference. I think it was one of the worst decisions of the last century. I've been aware of it because I'm in a regulated business.
The giant federal debt we’ve been talking about isn’t just borrowed money. It is also lent money. Loans are two-party transactions. One side receives temporary use of cash which it agrees to repay with interest. The other gives up the current use of that cash in exchange for receiving interest. Ideally, it works out for both… but not always.
Investors often ignore geopolitics, usually to their benefit. Now might be one of those times when we should pay attention. In the past few weeks, hostilities between East and West have accelerated. It’s a worrisome trend.
The old saw about doing the same thing and expecting a different result is less simple than it seems. Sometimes you need a few attempts to get it right.
You know I’m highly concerned about government debt in the developed world, particularly the US. I’ve said for years a crisis is coming. We’ve blown right past all our chances to avoid it. Now all we can do is imagine what the crisis will look like… and how much it will hurt.
I was a landlord once and it didn’t turn out how I expected. I think it mattered that I didn’t set out to be a landlord. I had bought a house in Baltimore City that I expected to live in for many years.
Defending my love of dividends consumes a lot of my time. Sometimes I’ll pull out my track record. Other times I explain how owning boring and stable dividend stocks means I spend less time watching and worrying about them.
I’m writing you from Cape Town, South Africa, where I’ve been warmly welcomed and reminded how much I enjoy international travel (well, except for jet lag!). Our world has so many wonders most people never get to experience. Of course, “there’s no place like home,” but seeing other places makes me happy, too.
Data is important but not everything. Perceptions matter, too. Today we’ll look at how people feel inflation and what it may mean in the years to come.
The price of oil is hovering around $76 per barrel, 38% off its 5-year high. With so much geopolitical tension, why isn’t it higher?
When new inventions turn into market frenzies, the contrarian part of me wants to be skeptical. But the optimistic part of me wants it to be true, especially when the idea promises to change life for the better. Reality is usually somewhere in between.
Some of the biggest names in tech started paying dividends this year. This includes Alphabet (GOOG), Meta Platforms (META), Salesforce (CRM), and Booking Holdings (BKNG).
Copper prices have exploded higher, up 33% year to date.
Sometimes two seemingly opposite things can be true at the same time. Right now, we can correctly say inflation is both a) better than it was and b) higher than it should be.
The path to the US’s energy future is becoming obvious. Over time, nuclear will become one of, if not the primary, sources of energy feeding our ever-growing demand for electricity. China and India are far ahead of the US on this, with hundreds of new reactors slated for construction.
Any way you care to measure it, the United States has the world’s largest economy. It is not, however, the fastest-growing economy. And growth rates matter because, other things being equal, a faster-growing economy might eventually challenge US leadership.
So much happened in the spring of 2020 that it’s easy to forget we were on track for a recession just before COVID hit. QI Research founder Danielle DiMartino Booth mentioned this during her presentation with Lacy Hunt at our Strategic Investment Conference.
I’m entering my annual post-SIC decompression period. I say that only half-jokingly. The last two weeks were my version of a dive deep into the sea, where you see shocking things and endure crushing pressure. The weeks of preparation are fun, but the sheer volume of information creates its own kind of pressure. You don’t just shift back into normal life after that.
The latest run of unchecked optimism might just be over.
This week is part two of our conversation about alternative investments. As I pointed out last week, this space has evolved into a distinct asset class of its own. I believe investors need to understand the good, the bad, and the ugly aspects of investing in alternatives.
Today, we look at the world of “alternative investing.” I put it in quotes because this was originally a somewhat pejorative term. Back in the 1960s (and maybe before?), brokers sold you stocks and bonds, saying that was how smart people invested
Have you seen the price of natural gas lately?
This week continues our series on dividends and dividend growth stocks. This is one part of my strategy to try to get through what I see as a coming crisis by the end of the decade with as much of my buying power as intact as possible.
Over half of Gen Z and Millennials have a side hustle or some kind of gig work to supplement their income. The numbers show that nearly two-thirds of workers are living paycheck to paycheck.
Apple makes around 90% of iPhones in China. From a supply chain perspective, this is better than where Apple stood a few years ago when it made all its iPhones there.
A critical question is how do we get as much buying power as possible from the beginning of the crisis through to the other side? Part of the answer is Warren Buffett’s admonition to never bet against America. Better to do as he does, investing in specific parts of America.
Gold started this week at an all-time high. It’s up about 10% since the start of the year. That’s roughly on par with the S&P 500. All of this while inflation is trending down (with some bumps).
Leaders take a lot of criticism. In fact, that’s part of the job. Presidents, governors, CEOs, football coaches, other top decision makers and even your humble analyst all have to answer for what happens on their watch—even when it’s not their fault.
If, like me, you’re old enough to remember the 1990s internet bubble, today’s AI excitement might be giving you flashbacks. The parallels are unmistakable.
Earlier this week, I shared my thoughts on a ban or forced sale of social media platform TikTok. The Chinese Communist Party can use it to surveil and manipulate Americans, and we should ban it immediately. Many of you sent thoughtful feedback, which I appreciate.
Last week, the House passed a bill that would require ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns TikTok, to sell within six months or face a ban. Now the bill faces an uphill battle in the Senate.
You may have noticed the stock market rising lately. Much of the gain isn’t so much “the market” as a handful of mega-cap stocks. Nonetheless, the bulls are clearly in charge. The question is how long they will stay there. History suggests longer than many market bears think.
The idea that “market expectations” tell us anything about the economy’s future is – or should be – in serious doubt. That’s not to say the market is wrong. It just changes its mind so often as to be useless. And most of the time, it changes its mind after the fact.
India’s growth story is unprecedented.
Today, we have a different kind of letter. I’ve been in California for some rather innovative and hopefully life/health span-extending medical treatment.
Recently I saw a T-shirt for sale that said, “Science Doesn’t Care What You Think.” I used a similar metaphor recently, observing how many experiments show that jumping off a cliff will send you rapidly downward. If you want to test that theory, please add me to your will first.
NVIDIA’s spectacular quarter and forecast are dominating headlines this week.
If you’re a parent or grandparent, you may know of the “Choose Your Own Adventure” storybook series. Written in second person, they make “you” the hero.
We are in the early days of an AI-driven productivity boom.
One of the more fascinating and mysterious parts of watching the Federal Reserve is the ongoing dialogue between Fed leaders and Wall Street. We imagine private meetings held in great secrecy. Those may in fact occur, but I’m not sure they are even necessary.
After the great financial crisis, China’s appetite for commodities and technology fueled a global economic recovery.
Modern economies, even small ones, are unfathomably complex. The number of variables is far more than any human can comprehend or any model can track. It’s really no wonder so many forecasts are wrong.
In thinking about the 2020s, I often find myself looking back to the 1920s. That decade began with a deep recession/depression and ended with a stock market crash. While we now see the 1920s as a kind of “in between” period, people at the time didn’t know another depression and war were coming.
“Two is better than one” is a nice saying, but it really depends on what you’re describing. Two hurricanes or earthquakes aren’t better than one. Just one disaster at a time will suffice, thank you very much.
The “magnificent seven,” Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, soared 112% (equally weighting each). They outperformed both the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which is weighted by market cap, and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which weights each stock equally.
Having now spent almost six months describing the historical cycles and massive debt that surround us, I find myself looking for an “easy” exit.
It’s forecast season again, the time when people like me tell people like you what will happen this year. Sadly, we are often wrong.
