Commentary

The Fed Has a Third Mandate, and the Market Has a New Imaginary Friend

Much has been made of the market’s relationship with the Fed in recent months.

Commentary

Fundamentally Challenged or Fundamentally Cheap? Bargain Hunting in a Down Market

In downward trending markets as we have seen for much of 2022, it is important to distinguish price declines which may present similarly.

Commentary

Equity Outlook: The Great Normalization

Equity markets have struggled so far in 2022, but in our view the declines are largely due to “The Great Normalization” – the unwinding of the Covid economy that was defined by excess liquidity, unusually high demand, and extremely low interest rates.

Commentary

Total Return Outlook: It’s Like Déjà Vu All Over Again

Despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening policy, we think inflation still has a ways to run, though we remain cautiously optimistic about the economy.

Commentary

Strategic Income Outlook: Are We There Yet?

With investors wondering whether we are finally through the worst of the selloff, our latest Strategic Income outlook tries to answer the question, “Are we there yet?”

Commentary

Short-Term Investing with a Long-Term Perspective

Many of the participants in the short-term credit market use it as a place to deploy cash while waiting for higher risk opportunities.

Commentary

Inflation vs. Stagflation: A Distinction Without a Difference?

For the better part of the last decade, interest rates have been near zero and leverage has driven asset prices higher.

Commentary

Equity Investment Outlook: Globalization in Retreat

Concerns about the Ukraine war, inflation, and the Fed were top of mind last quarter, but a lesser appreciated long-tern headwind is the de-globalization of the labor force, which could have profound effects on the economy.

Commentary

Total Return Outlook: Encore! Encore?!

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated inflation, which was already rising. The big questions now are how far will the Fed be willing to go to slow inflation, and how will the market react as rates increase?

Commentary

Strategic Income Outlook: War is Hell

The war in Ukraine has further complicated the investment backdrop, and fears of a recession are rising now that the U.S. yield curve has inverted. Given so much uncertainty, we are focusing on what we can control and maintaining a defensive posture

Commentary

Strategic Income Fund: Built to Withstand Challenging Markets

Bonds have started slowly in 2022 due to persistent inflation, a looming Fed tightening cycle, and the Russia/Ukraine conflict. We believe the Osterweis Strategic Income Fund is well-positioned to address these challenges, as its flexible mandate and defensive approach help to protect against rising rates and market volatility.

Commentary

Market Perspectives: Our Latest Thoughts on Ukraine

The Ukraine conflict has escalated rapidly, creating a massive humanitarian crisis and increasing volatility across financial markets. In this piece we review the major economic implications of the war and discuss the steps we are taking to manage the impact on portfolios.

Commentary

Equity Investment Outlook: The Pandemic’s Long Tail

In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.

Commentary

Total Return Outlook: We Have Liftoff!

Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.

Commentary

Strategic Income Outlook: One Heck of a Year

As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.