The Fed is likely to lay the groundwork for a pause, and push back against an early pivot.
We favor high yield bonds and natural resource stocks as inflation still shows persistence, earnings expectations deteriorate and worries mount over a stalling U.S. economy.
The latest IMF reports shows the mounting risks facing emerging markets.
The disruption in office real estate is outlasting the term on its loans.
How will tighter lending standards become evident in the economy?
Financial volatility continues to moderate amid settling in the banking sector. Economic data in much of the world has remained positive. But a slowdown is in store. Businesses and households will have a harder time borrowing as credit conditions tighten further. Financial risks have risen.
Housing stress may spread to other sectors.
Technology enhancements have increased the speed of panic.
The dollar's strengths still outweigh its weaknesses.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.
The case for a central bank digital currency has many shortcomings.
Money market funds are attracting deposits for more reasons than just SVB.
The risk of Japanese inflation getting out of control is not high.
If I did not have bad luck, I would have no luck at all.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
The demise of a major bank illustrates the global tensions in the financial sector.
The fallout from SVB will make the Fed's job more difficult.
The full story of SVB is still unfolding, but we offer some initial reactions.
Elevated job openings may not give an accurate view of labor market conditions.
If marked to market, assets purchased during quantitative easing are in the red.
Can India capitalize on supply chain realignment to build its manufacturing sector?
History shows a high risk of recession when central banks fight inflation.
A revised approach to Northern Ireland will lower trade tensions in Europe.
Artificial intelligence will reshape how a lot of work gets done.
A drawdown to fight energy inflation has left the SPR at a new low.
The war has been tremendously costly, in Ukraine and beyond.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
The U.S. needs to put in more effort at home to maintain its technological edge.
The auto industry is navigating through shifting conditions in trade, policy, and preferences.
Time out of school is still weighing on student performance.
Mexico is downstream of shifting trade winds.
Differing economic cycles and limited trade links will make the sur unfeasible.
Inflation has turned a corner, but not yet for food.
Markets are no longer shocked by central bank tightening.
Inflation is a mixed picture, with services staying hot.
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.
A fiscal disruption could do great damage to the U.S. economy.
Many older workers who left the workforce during the pandemic may not return to the labor market.
Workers and managers are in a tug-of-war over return to office policies.
U.S. consumers did not slow their spending over the holidays.
A surprising shift in Japan's monetary policy.
The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2022.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for inflation, growth, employment and interest rates.
