The impressive arc of AI stock growth has been something to behold. Touring Silicon Valley and meeting with AI and tech company leaders offers another level of inspiration and insight on the market juggernaut. Active equity investor Tony Kim shared the experience and his broader AI investment outlook with The Bid podcast.
After more than six months of indicating that it lacked conviction regarding the path of inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) seems to have gotten a conviction boost so large that it pushed it to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Since 2020, momentum investing has generated significantly better returns than other strategies. Such is not surprising, given the massive amounts of stimulus injected into the financial system. However, Brett Arends for Marketwatch noted in 2021 that momentum investing can give you an edge.
I’m moving up a letter I was planning to share with you on my birthday weekend in two weeks. The story about sandpiles and the financial system may be the most popular letter I’ve written in the last 25 years. It is one we should all re-read every few years to remind us how change happens slowly, then suddenly.
For years, the U.S. has been the dominant player in military spending, with American companies like Lockheed Martin and RTX (formerly Raytheon) commanding the global arms market. But now, Europe—specifically its arms manufacturers—may be the next big opportunity for savvy investors.
More than two years after first taking steps to contain swelling inflation, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has taken a step back, suggesting monetary policy decision-makers have confidence that inflation will continue to move closer to the Fed’s target, allowing them to turn some attention to economic growth.
We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining meetings in 2024 and to sustain that pace into 2025. This trajectory would get the Fed down to our estimate of the normal or equilibrium rate of interest of 3%-3.25% this time next year.
As GMO celebrates its 30th anniversary managing emerging debt this year, we offer our comprehensive guide to emerging debt markets. Given the tumultuous recent events – a global pandemic, defaults, repricing of interest rates, relentless strength in the U.S. dollar – we’ll focus on the Why as a starting point. Then we’ll dive into the proliferating How, covering strategies and vehicles.
From "how" to "why now," here are four things investors should understand about bond investing.
The Northern Trust Economics team reacts to the Fed's decision and shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment and inflation.
Despite forthcoming volatility, it's an ideal time to get municipal debt exposure, especially in the current market environment.
Trend-following is an exercise in technical analysis, systematic rules following, and signals reading that’s objective and agnostic.
With interest rates on the decline, investors may want to consider filling gaps in small- and mid-cap quality ETF exposure.
Now that the Fed has begun the rate-cut cycle, investors can use option income ETFs to provide long-term income and risk protection.
With the decision on Wednesday to lower interest rates (for the first time since March of 2020) by a substantial 50 basis points (bps), rather than the 25 bps cut we typically see at the beginning of an easing cycle, the Fed is showing confidence that the disinflation trend will continue.
What history can tell us about seasonal returns.
Sometimes that means lower priority tasks fall through the cracks. Here are four tips for managing procrastination tendencies.
We believe the Fed is on a path to continue to cut rates over the next several meetings to realign monetary policy with a now more “normal” U.S. economy.
Many financial planning actions are linked to age milestones. Our Bill Cass highlights what key birthdays and other dates could mean for your financial plan.
The half-percentage point reduction at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting represents the largest non-COVID era cut by the Fed since 2008.
Conference season brings about its own set of volatility catalysts. Portfolio managers and traders must keep their ears out for clues on the state of the broad economy, specific industries, and individual companies.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation is going to be highlighting what he considers to be the best investment in AI – Super Micro. Chuck has done a lot of research on Super Micro Computer.
The Fed began the process of rate cuts today, and they came out not with a whimper, but with a bang, cutting rates by 0.5% (50 basis points). Following the June meeting, Fed members forecast it would be appropriate to cut rates once – by 25 basis points (bps) – in 2024. Three months on, they have already surpassed those expectations, and forecast further cuts before the year is through.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
The Fed enacted a 0.50% interest rate cut, the first in the Fed’s historic fight against inflation that’s lasted over two years.
Most American couples say they trust their partner regarding financial matters, but many reveal they aren’t necessarily in full agreement.
As the back-to-school season fills your social media feed with first-day photos and ads for the latest school supplies, it is also a prime opportunity for financial advisors to reconnect with clients about their education savings plans.
Policymakers indicated that more interest rate cuts were likely in coming months.
After much anticipation, the Fed finally delivered a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. The amount had been the subject of a great deal of speculation of late, and the voting members decided on a half-point reduction to kick off this easing cycle, bringing the new Fed Funds trading range down to 4.75%–5%.
As the kiddos return to school, our fantasy football lineups are set, and the summer has ended, not only is the weather turning in the Northeast, but the inflation challenges are also cooling. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, was released at the end of August and came in at 2.5% month-over-month for July.
MSCI boosted India’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and reduced China’s in its latest quarterly rebalance, continuing long-term trends.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
While the beach version of SoCal has had an epic, non-marine layer summer, it seems to have been enjoyed by few locals who instead violate the cardinal rule of adult life without children living at home and nevertheless travel to Europe in summer. We haven’t missed you.
Many investors understandably are wondering where Japan’s equity markets are heading. The market had a good year through June. After that it changed. The Bank of Japan's hawkishly delivered interest rate increase on July 31 preceded the release of weak U.S. economic data.
With the Fed nearing its first interest rate cut since 2020, enthusiasm for fixed income assets is increasing. Enter the ALPS Intermediate Municipal Bond ETF.
VettaFi provides an overview of the Marcellus and Utica shale.
Munis cemented their best “summer” since 2010 after another month of strong performance. Some near-term caution is warranted given that September has been historically challenging. Robust issuance ahead of the election should provide opportunities in the primary market.
The last five years have bombarded investors with a seemingly never-ending array of challenges. Yet despite all these obstacles the S&P 500 is up almost 90% as of this writing.
Deal activity in private equity has slowed significantly from 2021 due to high interest rates and economic uncertainty.
With attractive valuations, emerging market equities look like a good opportunity. A factor investing strategy, designed well, may enhance performance and help manage some key risks.
History suggests Presidential elections are not nearly as important to the financial markets as the media plays them up to be, and a focus on fundamentals rather than political slogans has generally been beneficial. Historical asset class and sector performance shows virtually no consistent performance pattern under Democratic or Republican Presidents.
Panic is never a good investment strategy—nor is greed. Here's how disciplined investing helps navigate through volatile environments.
The August jobs report highlighted a critical reality: the labor market is cooling off. While the headline figures seemed decent, the underlying data reveals clear warning signs that worker demand is slowing.
The markets closed quite strong last week and were approaching all-time highs again for the S&P 500. The most recent Presidential debate shifted the odds markets, as Harris became a 55-45 favorite on the betting site PredictIt and a very slight favorite on Polymarket. It is positive for the risk markets which did not pull back with Harris gaining strength.
The yield curve measures the difference between short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term Treasury yields.
Active fixed income ETFs have taken a big leap this year per new research about active ETFs that may draw new investor eyes.
The Federal Reserve (Fed), and markets, overreacted to the slightly higher inflation seen during the first quarter of the year. After that scare, the Fed went from expecting three cuts in the federal funds rate in 2024 to just one cut during its June dot plot release.
The August consumer price index report showed that U.S. inflation slowed to 2.5%
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates at its September meeting. Market performance may depend on whether the pace of cuts is fast or slow.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why the next bout of market volatility may last a bit longer than previous downturns and how to best position your portfolio against this backdrop.
