Free trade is in trouble. That’s hardly startling news when the US has an avowed protectionist in the White House, but the problem runs deeper than it may at first appear.
The gap between US federal spending and tax revenue is currently bigger, as a share of gross domestic product, than it’s ever been outside of major war or other crisis.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman told President Donald Trump he’s willing to expand investments and trade with the US in the coming four years by $600 billion, according to the kingdom’s state-run news agency SPA.
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
As we welcome a new year and its many possibilities, it’s important to reflect on where the markets and investor psychology sit on the pendulum of greed and despair.
From the start of December to their recent peaks, 10-year yields have gained 68 basis points in the U.K., 60 basis points in the U.S., 55 basis points in Germany and 48 basis points in Canada.
European equity markets may look vulnerable to fallout from new US policies. But some companies offer investors reasons to cheer.
State and federal agencies are providing immediate assistance and financial aid for essentials for wildfire victims in California. Our Bill Cass shares some financial strategies to secure emergency funds and plan finances.
Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.
All of the attention when it comes to future Fed monetary policy decisions has been laser-focused on rate cuts. We would have to concur, and rightfully so. However, that doesn’t mean investors should take their eyes off the ball and not consider the Fed’s balance sheet.
Today’s video on the Utility Sector is another in the continuing series of videos where we are looking for value in each of the 11 major sectors as reported by Standard & Poor’s. This particular video is going to be on Utility Stocks.
Netflix Inc. shares soared to a record high on Wednesday after the streaming giant reported its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history, buoyed by its first major live sporting events and the return of Squid Game.
The ETF industry’s upstart-in-chief is back with another roll of the new-product dice — this time betting on a game-changing expansion of Wall Street’s zero-day options boom.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s dealmakers are spending their time in the Swiss Alps huddling with ebullient clients, but the boss of the biggest US bank is striking a more cautious tone.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has a new book to promote. So while I am loath to fuel the sales campaign, his latest bomb in an interview with the Financial Times — warning of a “death spiral” for Britain’s sovereign debt — requires a riposte.
SoftBank Group Corp., OpenAI, and Oracle Corp. are forming a $100 billion joint venture to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure, an effort unveiled with President Donald Trump aimed at speeding development of the emerging technology.
VettaFi examines midstream EBITDA growth guidance for 2025 and future years.
As the industry matures, innovative operating models have emerged to address the diverse needs of both acquiring and selling firms. This analysis examines the primary models driving consolidation in the RIA space and explores their strategic implications for industry participants.
When you think about money behaviors that don’t serve you well, I suggest tuning in to your financial boardroom. Start with a little curiosity. What emotions surface? Which voices are the loudest?
Big US banks marked the beginning of the Q4 earnings season when they released results last week, and overall they were positive. Because of their position opening up the earnings season they tend to set the tone for things to come.
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
As economists and financial market forecasters, we are constantly amazed at how so many people analyze, forecast, research, and discuss important topics without ever addressing the elephant(s) in the room.
In last week’s discussion with Thoughtful Money, I noted that we are becoming more “tactically bearish” as we progress into 2025. While we have remained primarily bullish in equity positioning over the last two years, several risks are now worth considering.
It is sometimes perceived that the Fed’s action changes all interest rates across the yield curve, but that needs to be put in perspective.
Value stocks hit some investors’ radar screens with a performance uptick in the second half of 2024. Yet many portfolios may be unwittingly underweighted in this popular equity style.
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
I’m devoting this column to reminders around change management and what to think about for the human element in the midst of change.
This past week brought promising news for the markets and the broader economy. Inflation data came in at or below expectations, while economic indicators, including housing starts and retail sales, demonstrated surprising resilience.
REX Financial’s Greg King discusses the firm’s recent crypto ETF filings, including those for TRUMP and DOGE, and explores the growth of leveraged single-stock ETFs, such as the T-Rex 2X Long MicroStrategy Daily Target ETF (MSTU). VettaFi’s Zeno Mercer offers a preview of the year ahead for the “Magnificent Seven” stocks and provides a brief tour of the artificial intelligence ETF space.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s head of research, Todd Rosenbluth, discussed the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
This chart series features an overlay of the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the equity market peak in 1929. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close. These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
Spray-and-pray marketing is a good model for selling T-shirts but not so good for getting advisory clients.
Stock market stoicism isn’t just philosophy – it’s a practical approach to investing where we focus on what we can control (research quality, disciplined decisions, and our reactions) while accepting what we can’t (market whims and short-term sentiment shifts).
The pairing of active management and fixed income could be as important as any time in recent memory.
Apple Inc. received a pair of analyst downgrades, in the latest sign that soft iPhone sales are becoming an increasing concern for investors, as artificial intelligence fails to act as a hoped-for growth catalyst.
There’s a lot of chatter on Wall Street about artificial intelligence replacing analysts — the folks at banks and brokerages who tell investors which stocks to buy, hold or sell. The bots should be able to make those recommendations just as well as humans.
Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.
US government bond yields approached their lowest levels of the year after President Donald Trump refrained from immediately implementing tariffs and oil prices declined, easing inflation concerns.
President Donald Trump launched a sweeping overhaul of US energy policy hours after taking office Monday, putting the weight of the federal government behind fossil-fuel production and pulling back from the fight against climate change.
Donald Trump opened his second term as US president with a market-jolting recalibration of his tariff policies, in a sign of turbulence ahead for investors and corporate executives.
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
Everybody has an opinion about quantum computing lately. Last week Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang suggested we were 15–30 years away from “useful” quantum computing
Today’s video on the Real Estate Sector (REITs) is another in the continuing series of videos where we are looking for value in each of the 11 major sectors as reported by Standard & Poor’s.
2024 was characterized by megacap dominance, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs and gaining roughly 25%. Megacap leadership resulted in the largest companies growing their share of the index. As of this writing, the top seven stocks in the S&P 500 make up 34% of the S&P 500.
We understand that the monetary policy playbook since the Bernanke Fed and the Great Financial Crisis has changed considerably.
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
In 2025, two titans of technology stand at the forefront of innovation: quantum computing and robotics. Each offers a vision of a future transformed, where the impossible becomes achievable and industries are redefined.
