We did an internal survey among our associates, attempting to get a feel for their views on various economic and fixed income topics. Any survey result concerning the future can net inexact results but nonetheless reveal general sentiment. Attitude, outlook, and opinions can help shape the market.
The Fed’s balance sheet could stabilize this year, but details are unclear.
The election outcome is unlikely to change the status quo for the Taiwan Strait, U.S.-China relations, or global markets which have seemed to price in geopolitical risk.
Emerging markets bonds issuance is already reaching record highs early in 2024. The Financial Times reported that EM debt issuance is already at $50 billion, opening opportunities in EM bond ETFs.
The Federal Reserve has fueled market conviction that the good old days of extremely low interest rates and abundant liquidity are soon to return. Our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai sees this reaction as an excess of dovish enthusiasm that sets the stage for more volatility.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, discussed the launch of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), with BlackRock’s Jay Jacobs. Rosenbluth and Jacobs also talked about the benefits of ETF bitcoin exposure for investors, and about blockchain technology at the Crypto Symposium hosted on the VettaFi platform.
In 2023, the Federal budget deficit exceeded private and foreign saving, resulting in only the eighth year since 1929 with negative net national saving (to be referred to as NNNS).
“The current fiscal path is unsustainable”. This stark warning comes from the US Treasury Department’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s fiscal year-end projections1. Based on current appropriations and tax law, these projections display steadily rising federal spending and flat tax receipts, as a percentage of GDP.
Why we believe small companies present key opportunities to tap into the heart of innovation and expansion in emerging markets.
Economic data has provided encouragement for both stock market bulls and bears.
The market has taken a one-sided view on inflation and the Fed's reaction to it, even though other very plausible explanations exist. This illustrates both the power of narrative and the vulnerability of the current consensus.
With the SEC opening the floodgates to spot bitcoin ETFs last week, VanEck’s Director of Digital Assets Product Kyle DaCruz thinks that interest in cryptocurrency products and bitcoin ETFs is “only going to spike.”
So much of the market’s focus on the AI narrative has emphasized AI’s place in information technology firms. Chatbots like ChatGPT foretell a world of AI agents helping humans boost productivity, push creativity forward, and improve efficiency.
Markets in 2023 kept investors on the edge of their seats. Groundbreaking technological advancements, mega-popstars being blamed for summertime inflation, and a December Fed pivot were just a few of the plot twists.
Currently, consensus earnings growth is expected to be 1.3% YoY for the fourth quarter, which would mark a deceleration from 3Q (+6.1%).
The leaders of the House and Senate have come up with a new budget deal, and many people aren’t happy. It still needs passing by January 19th, or else the government, evidently, may shutdown. We doubt that this will happen, but the fight over government spending seems to drag on year after year after year.
The long-awaited spot bitcoin ETFs are trading after a decade of waiting. So now the ETF and advisor community has some available brain capacity to look forward. In a month, many will be in Miami, Florida to kick off the Exchange conference. I can’t wait.
The likelihood of another severe bout of inflation from higher shipping costs alone is low.
The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs should help advisors better connect with clients and gain a larger share of assets. For the past few years, advisors’ biggest frustration was that they were not able to get access to spot bitcoin investments despite clients asking for it.
The “magnificent seven,” Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, soared 112% (equally weighting each). They outperformed both the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which is weighted by market cap, and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which weights each stock equally.
We have read plenty of analysis on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) should do as it decides when to start lowering interest rates this year. Much of the analysis is well-intentioned as well as based on very good arguments.
Kicking off the symposium, WisdomTree Investments CEO Jonathan Steinberg and Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan gave an overview of how investors may want to interpret the news.
The employment sector has undergone a tumultuous journey over the past four years, and recently the trajectory of job gains has experienced a gradual deceleration over the past year, prompting speculation about the future.
Last week was perhaps one of the biggest weeks in the history of cryptocurrency, as the SEC finally approved 10 spot bitcoin ETFs from a range of issuers. To help ETF-oriented investors better understand these products, and the cryptocurrency industry overall, VettaFi hosted a Cryptocurrency Symposium on January 12, 2024.
Interest rates are one of the most important factors affecting the economy and the outlook for stocks. Managers increasingly think interest rates in the U.S. have likely peaked and are repositioning equity portfolios for the new environment.
The higher level of U.S. oil production is helping to keep global prices contained.
After several years of uncertainty, spot bitcoin ETFs were finally approved by the SEC on January 10. The spot bitcoin ETF launch was monumental in several ways.
Municipals experienced their strongest two-month performance since 1986 during the final two months of 2023.
As 2024 kicks off, we’re sitting down with ClearBridge Investments’ Head of Economic and Market Strategy, Jeff Schulze.
Wall Street is doubling down on their bond bets for 2024. The notion that rate cuts are finally coming in 2024 spurs this movement. That said, here are a trio of exchange traded funds (ETFs) from Vanguard worth noting.
Today’s “finance-based” global economies are moving in the wrong direction.
As equity investors hunt for opportunities, why should they consider climate-focused investing?
Finally, the ETF industry can let out a sigh of relief and revel in the fact that spot bitcoin ETFs will be available to U.S. market participants.
With the Federal Reserve poised to begin cutting interest rates this year, the dollar may drift generally downward. However, its performance against individual currencies may vary widely.
An initial lull ahead of a so-called “January Effect” is stifling the U.S. equities rally investors saw in 2023 and small caps haven’t been immune. Nonetheless, active strategies can help mute the short-term downside by adding flexibility when markets fluctuate.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, shares his expertise on dealing with stock price collapses. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on fundamentals rather than solely relying on stock prices.
2023 was a memorable year for AI, which also benefited the semiconductor industry. The growth trajectory of the former should also boost the latter. And that should allow traders to continue leveraging its strength in 2024.
In the latest episode of our Alternative Allocations podcast, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow discusses the secondaries market in private equities with Taylor Robinson, partner of Lexington Partners.
Corporate bonds delivered solid gains last year. And market observers expect more of the same in 2024. But it’s important to note that the consensus is leaning toward investment-grade over junk-rated corporate issues.
EU nations have compromised on paths toward fiscal balance.
Having now spent almost six months describing the historical cycles and massive debt that surround us, I find myself looking for an “easy” exit.
The January effect, named for the market anomaly where stock returns in January are typically higher than in other months, has been a subject of interest since it was first documented in 1942.
Large-caps are getting a lot of attention and making a lot of headlines these days. And why wouldn’t they?
Last Friday’s jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls up 216,000 in December, beating the consensus expected 175,000. Many are arguing that this was a huge number proving that the economy is not going into recession.
Risk assets surged to end 2023 as the Federal Reserve blessed market hopes for rate cuts. That momentum could persist for some time as inflation cools.
The demand for nuclear energy is continuing at a rapid pace, and more countries are becoming receptive to its use. This is evident in a declaration to triple nuclear energy by the year 2050.
Making New Year’s resolutions usually involves some level of reflection on how to be a better person and the possibilities ahead.
Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 11 macroeconomic trends we believe are likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.
A lot was going on with rates in 2023, yet, at the end of the year how different were things? The 10-year Treasury yield's lowest closing was 3.30%, while its highest close was 4.98%.
Exchange is just a month away, so here are four big things to do in advance of a conference. These tips will help you optimize your conference experience.
