Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.
Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.
The last two years of high school can be particularly important as students approach the final college decision. Our Bill Cass highlights some action items for students and parents.
With its current course leading only to economic stagnation, the EU must establish a vision for a more dynamic, productive future. Above all, Europeans must answer a simple but critical question: What should the EU look like – in terms of innovation, the economy, security, and resilience – in a decade?
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth.
Active management can lead to high portfolio turnover and a higher tax bill. Wealth managers might feel that an active strategy could be too inefficient for clients who are sensitive to taxes. Find out how implementing a core-satellite portfolio with a direct indexing core may improve tax efficiency.
Earning returns for clients matters, and so is reducing taxes they pay. Clients looking to retain wealth from their portfolios, expect their advisors to be proactive when it comes to managing taxes.
Join the professionals at AssetMark to hear about tax management services that can help your clients keep more on their returns.
When feedback is done well, it can be the greatest gift you give to someone.
Having the best referral in the world doesn’t convert a prospect. It’s your website that seals the deal, not only for referrals but for organic prospects as well.
Many financial advisors exhibit a risk-averse attitude, leading to missed opportunities for growth and innovation.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses because they allow them to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending on August 15th, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 0.14% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was up 2.45%.
Chair Jerome Powell will usher in the next chapter in the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle on Friday, when he’s expected to set the table for an interest-rate cut while reassuring investors that policymakers can stave off a sharp economic slowdown.
The worst of the housing affordability crisis is behind us. But the past two years have shown that housing isn’t a bubble that is likely to pop overnight, nor can prices be forced lower in the short term with government intervention. Rising incomes, falling mortgage rates, more construction and thoughtful policy will slowly chip away at the affordability problem.
Bond traders are taking on a record amount of risk as they bet big on a Treasury market rally fueled by expectations the Federal Reserve will embark on its first interest-rate cut in more than four years.
With questions swirling around Federal Reserve policy, the state of the economy and the US presidential race, at least one thing seems clear on Wall Street: spending on artificial intelligence remains a central priority.
A wide variety of asset managers need to look at investing in private markets if they want to avoid wipe-out, while revamping their entire strategies to ride the wave, according to Bain & Co.
The US Treasury’s debt-issuance polices have become a powerful form of policy easing. By shortening its issuance profile to reduce long-term interest rates, the Treasury has delivered economic stimulus equivalent to a one-point cut to the Fed’s policy rate, impeding the central bank’s efforts to control inflation.
We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.
It's been 38 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.
As the AI halo begins to fade, equity investors are seeking companies that can profit from—and not just pontificate about—artificial intelligence.
Since the release of ChatGPT, mega-cap technology companies poised to profit from AI-enhanced software tools or cloud AI-model training capabilities have seen a surge in their stock prices. Yet, many have yet to realize significant AI-driven revenue growth, let alone a substantial impact on their bottom lines.
Stocks that offer artificial intelligence have been the hot ticket in the stock market – seeing their prices surge – many to astronomical heights. In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation will use FAST Graphs to see if he can locate some AI stocks that might not be so expensive, but his primary focus is going to be on Dell Technologies (DELL), as well as Dell’s competitors.
As recently as the beginning of this year the market pundits were predicting up to six Federal Reserve rate cuts to the short-term Federal Funds Rate. Shockingly, the pundits’ expectations have not come to fruition. Predictions based on the sentiment of the day fill the twenty-four-hour news cycle on multiple outlets.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Capital Group Municipal Income ETF (CGMU) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Join the experts at Eaton Vance for a webcast discussing best ideas for fixed income positioning going forward.
Strategas’ Todd Sohn highlights the industry’s chase for record inflows and discusses everything from recent ETF filings to market concentration risk. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang talks new ETF launches, small caps, REITs, and much more.
Here’s the truth: your prospect doesn’t need a friend and isn’t looking for one. They need someone to be honest and to tell them the truth, as painful as it might be, about the seriousness of their situation.
The “country” in this article is the wild and woolly market of small retirement savings plans (SRSPs) that have less than 100 participants. The “old men” are baby boomers who cannot afford to lose their lifetime savings. And the villain is the next stock market crash.
Given the inevitable ups and downs of the financial world, the joy of missing out on the frenzy might be a strong component of long-term financial and emotional wellbeing.
US job growth in the year through March was likely far less robust than initially estimated, which risks fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve is falling further behind the curve to lower interest rates.
Citigroup Inc. says the carry trade is back, but with a key difference: hedge funds are borrowing US dollars rather than the yen for their wagers on emerging markets.
More than any of the megacap technology stocks, Amazon.com Inc.’s big spending ways are coming at the expense of profits, and its shares are being punished as a result.
Oil, copper, soybeans and a handful of others monopolized the attention — but of all commodities, the humble lump of iron ore benefited the most from the Chinese economic boom of the last 25 years.
The term “recession” made a big comeback in news stories and social media posts this month. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Chief Economist Jan Hatzius was among those who formally bumped up his odds of a downturn to considerable media hoopla.
This week marks the ‘unofficial’ end to 2Q24 earnings season – and aside from a few wobbles, it has been reasonably good. S&P 500 earnings growth came in at a solid 11.2% YoY pace – its best quarterly performance since 4Q21.
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency.
Last week, we explored the old economic rules that falsely predicted an imminent recession. Losing those guideposts has complicated our efforts to craft an outlook.
I have received a lot of blowback from my recommendation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) drop the Fed Runds Rate by 150 basis points (bps) over the next several weeks. Certainly, the data has come in stronger than I (and many others) have anticipated. Particularly surprising was the drop in jobless claims, now nearer to the midpoint of my 200k to 240k range after breaching the upper limit.
Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.
Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.
A recent article co-authored by Stephen Miran and Dr. Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, accuses the U.S. Treasury Department of using its debt-issuance powers to manipulate financial conditions.
While high rates can make borrowing costlier and slow down housing markets, they also open favorable opportunities in financial products like annuities. In other words, annuities are back and stronger than ever before!
Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.
Head fake is a trading term, too. Some bit of information convinces investors a market is going to move a certain way. They reposition their portfolios accordingly… just in time to find out the information was wrong. Oof.
Investors including JPMorgan Asset Management, M&G Investments and Aviva Investors say they seized on the retreat in riskier assets at the start of the month to bolster their holdings of emerging-market bonds.
The recent rebound in US tech stocks isn’t convincing options traders just yet.
This year’s presentation by Chair Jerome Powell is eagerly awaited due to the economic fluidity and financial volatility that the US has been experiencing, and its spillovers to the rest of the world.
Decisions made by the Treasury get much less attention than those made by the Federal Reserve, but they can be even more consequential for interest rates — and the entire US economy.
Just as bond traders grow more assured that inflation is finally under control, a camp of investors is quietly building up protection against the risk of a future spike in prices.
U.S. consumer-price gains eased to 2.9% in July—the lowest increase since 2021
