Foreign Agents provides a powerful and depressing master class in the famous warning of Hamilton’s Federalist No. 21. To quote another founding father, Benjamin Franklin, “a republic, if you can keep it” indeed.

China’s recent stimulus announcements sparked a massive rally in its stocks, and a growing chorus of analysts see more gains ahead. Is this a reawakening of the country’s long slumbering stock market or just another false start? Bloomberg Opinion’s Nir Kaissar and Shuli Ren, based in the US and Hong Kong respectively, met online to discuss the risks and opportunities.

Judging from the public commentary, last Friday’s US jobs report confused economists in terms of their understanding of economic developments in the world’s largest economy and the policy approach of the Federal Reserve.

The rout in US government debt extended slightly on Tuesday, with longer-dated yields at the highest levels since late July and inflation data later in the week expected to enable Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

It’s no secret that betting on defense suppliers when geopolitical tensions ratchet higher pays off — at least in the short term. But Wall Street says there’s more to this latest rally.

US investment-grade corporate bond spreads have narrowed to the lowest level in more than three years, a clear sign of just how bullish credit investors are even as macro and geopolitical risks mount.

The federal debt is already $35 trillion and currently rising by roughly $2 trillion every year – with no end in sight. As a result, some investors are worried that the US could become a 21st Century version of Argentina: completely bankrupt and unable to pay the bills.

Just like road trips can bring unexpected detours, the economy and financial markets are at their own crossroads: recession or soft landing?

We bring together historical and real-time analysis for insight into the economy, markets, and potential alpha opportunities and risks we’re watching.

Policymakers have recognized China's slower economy.

Monetary policy began to transition from restrictive to neutral last quarter, and we’re optimistic that continued easing can prevent a hard landing.

Global monetary easing and modest growth are creating a fairy tale story for investors. Their very high conviction in the outcome of that story, however, belies a number of serious risks.

The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates. Whether the economy falls into recession, hard or soft, is anyone’s guess.

Gold and the related exchange traded funds are among this year’s best-performing assets, helped in part by interest rate cuts.

Join the team at Neuberger Berman as they explore how options may be used to diversify income streams and monetize market volatility while maintaining exposure to gains.

Building a TIPS ladder gives us a license to spend and creates a spending floor. My TIPS ladder combined with Social Security provides a $10,000 monthly inflation-adjusted cash flow, though I’m delaying taking Social Security until age 70, of course.

GAO reports are intended to improve industry practices. GAO failed in its target date fund report but succeeded in its conflicts of interest report.

Discussion about more political oversight or political control of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) occasionally heats up. We are seeing more of this type of discourse today as the election approaches. In our view, limited Fed independence could prove disastrous.

In the 1989 blockbuster Back to the Future II, time travel enables Michael J. Fox’s nemesis, Biff, to become a gazillionaire by bringing an almanac with sports match outcomes back from the future. We thought it might be instructive, and certainly entertaining, to make a less fanciful version of this dream a reality – for a few lucky people.

Strong returns in US equities over the past decade have led many investors to reduce their allocations to emerging markets equities. Yet, for investors focused on capturing growth, emerging markets may present a new frontier by which to participate in the next wave of global economic evolution. Emerging markets equities can provide exposure to transformative forces such as digitalization, productivity enhancements, shifting cultural norms, and rapid urbanization. These dynamics are not just shaping the future of emerging economies; they are laying the groundwork for growth and innovation.

The strong gain of 254,000 jobs in September was a welcome surprise after months of cooling in the labor market and reinforced other signs of strength in the US economy. However, one month does not make a trend, and even with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, a sustained turnaround in hiring will take time.

Thanks to new legislation, Americans with retirement plans now have easier access to cash in the event of a financial emergency. A provision in the Secure Act 2.0 that took effect this year allows individuals with 401(k)s and other retirement plans to withdraw up to $1,000 without triggering a 10% early distribution penalty.

Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. And the frenzy was even bigger in the options market.

The outlook for corporate debt is improving now that the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.

The “no landing” scenario – a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates – had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.

t.

The recent fears regarding the state of the U.S. employment sector seemed to have disappeared completely this morning as markets are ‘recalibrating’ their view on the U.S. economy going forward.

On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Vanguard Core Plus Bond ETF (VPLS) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.

How will the U.S. dollar respond to Federal Reserve rate cuts? The factors that have supported a strong dollar for years remain largely intact.

We are currently in the “everything market.” It doesn’t matter what you have probably invested in; it is currently increasing in value. However, it isn’t likely for the reasons you think. A recent Marketwatch interview with the always bullish Jim Paulson got his reasoning for the rally.

It’s my birthday week and I have guests and family gathering in the next room, so this will hopefully be a quick letter as well as ending with what will likely be controversial food for thought.

As we approach the final stretch of 2024, much of the nation’s focus is on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. But while the political landscape remains uncertain, the markets are painting a different picture. September, traditionally a sluggish month for global equities, delivered an unexpected surge.

Market conditions are shifting fast. But making impulsive changes to equity portfolios and allocations can be counterproductive.

The Wasatch team shares lessons they’ve learned on business models, portfolio management, management teams and markets.

Options-based ETFs are one of the fastest-growing categories in the market today, with product proliferation and adoption rising quickly.

Rate cut expectations pushed more investors into investment-grade corporate bonds, giving them their best quarter in nearly a year.

For registered investment advisors and others who provide financial advice, autumn is the start of a season loaded with opportunity.

In suburban Texas, a neighborhood complete with an amphitheater, dance hall and goat farm is scheduled to be erected 40 miles from Houston’s downtown — providing municipal-bond investors a window to bet on one of the fastest-growing areas of the US.

OpenAI has tapped global banks for a $4 billion revolving line of credit on top of its recent $6.6 billion fundraising, building a massive war chest to stay ahead in the costly race to develop more sophisticated artificial intelligence.

Mohamed El-Erian says the Federal Reserve needs to renew its focus on its fight against rising prices after September’s surprisingly hot jobs report served as a reminder that “inflation is not dead.”

If the risk of stepping too far out into the yield curve is too much to bear, consider using intermediate bond options.

Flashing green light – crowd will determine path forward.

As we look at today’s economy and financial markets, we are at a crossroads: Will it be a long straight highway to a soft landing, or will it be a bumpy road to recession?

If climate portfolios are positioned in the same giant US stocks held in broad equity allocations, investors may unwittingly double down on risk.

When looking at the increasingly complex structure of corporate lending in the present day, it can be easy to lose sight of the purpose of private credit and its lasting value to investors.

The dollar is about to notch its best week in two years. Geopolitical unrest, the odds of lower borrowing costs overseas and a resilient US economy are all spurring the world’s reserve currency higher.

Surprisingly strong hiring in September has taken pressure off the Federal Reserve by reducing worries over the US labor market, giving policymakers room to continue cutting interest rates at a more gradual pace in coming months.

Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. debuted a new artificial intelligence tool that can generate or edit videos based on a simple text prompt, elevating competition with rivals like OpenAI and Google in the race to develop the world’s most advanced AI technology.

Investors can use this Natixis ETF to lock in robust income and capital appreciation, while generating security against equity volatility.

Investors have been embracing actively managed fixed income ETFs in 2024. The latest suite of active ETFs to catch my eye are from State Street Global Advisors.