This past week, the market hit an all-time high. At the same time, Alphabet (GOOG) told investors it would raise $80 billion by selling stock to fund its AI buildout, and the shares fell about 4% on the news.
May saw 148 new ETF launches in May alone – although launch figures were partially driven by a 37-fund rollout from Corgi Insurance Services.
For more than four decades, PIMCO’s Secular Forum has provided a disciplined framework for stepping back from short-term market noise to assess the structural forces that will shape the global economy and markets over the next five years. Yet rarely has this exercise been more consequential than it has recently.
After more than three years of underperformance, our prognosis for global health care stocks remains positive. The sector now offers a broader set of high-quality companies at valuations that appear increasingly disconnected from fair value.
Many advisors deliver capital markets commentary as if the goal were simply to explain what’s happening. They assemble charts, cite data, summarize headlines and hope the client will draw the “right” conclusion.
Equity issuance is all the rage. The SpaceX (SPCX) IPO on Friday, Alphabet’s (GOOGL) up-sized secondary announced last week, and a slew of other major go-public names over the remainder of 2026 (Anthropic, OpenAI) buck the years-long trend of intense buybacks and shareholder-friendly activities by the world’s most valuable companies.
All major U.S. stock indices fell last week, ending a remarkable run of nine straight weekly gains for the S&P 500. But the headline numbers hide an unusually lopsided story.
The Senate passed $70 billion immigration enforcement funding bill, Capitol Hill struggles to find consensus on how to regulate AI, and the Trump Accounts app is live.
Begin with the print itself, because the headline flatters the internals only slightly. The bulk of May's gains came from leisure and hospitality, which added 70,000 jobs, nearly half of them in food services and drinking places; local government contributed 55,000, health care 35,000, and manufacturing a modest 7,000, while financial activities actually shed positions.
Every dollar in a growth equity index reflects two decisions: which companies to own and how much of each to hold. Indexes form intricate systematic rules to make the first decision. The second decision—position sizing—is usually determined by market-cap weighting.
With the latest CPI report showing that inflation is likely here to stay, it could be time to pivot towards ETFs with downside protection.
LPL Research analyzes bond markets as yields rise, exploring Fed policy expectations, inflation trends, and whether bad news is already priced into Treasuries.
Equity markets should remain supported by strong earnings and capital investment trends through 2026, but market concentration and macro risks leave less room for error.
The war in Iran is putting pressure on airlines. Higher jet fuel prices are cutting into profit margins, and the risk of a prolonged conflict may reduce travel demand in Europe and Asia. But for lessors, these gathering clouds may come with a silver lining.
The takeaway for both HY and EM corporates is straightforward. Once oil prices are above breakeven, further moves in oil tend to matter less for credit performance.
If you think tracking error tells you how well a portfolio “tracks” the benchmark, it doesn’t. If you think it signals underperformance, that’s not right either. And if you believe high tracking error is inherently better or worse depending on the manager, that’s not the whole story.
In Part 1, we explored why Dollar Dominance Remains Alive and Well. Today, we will explore the stronger-dollar trade, the one macro trade that nobody is sized for.
The Numbers Are Staggering – The Magnificent Seven stocks now carry a combined market cap larger than the GDPs of Germany, Japan, India, and the UK combined. Meanwhile, 2025 tech-sector capital expenditures rivaled the peak-year spending of the Manhattan Project, rural electrification, the Apollo moon shot, and the Interstate Highway System — all at once.
While job growth has reaccelerated, supporting consumption, the underlying income picture is less encouraging.
Investors have enjoyed a favorable run. If the year ended today, it would mark the seventh time in the last nine years that stock portfolios generated double-digit returns. Housing prices remain near historic highs, while bond investors have benefited from elevated yields over the past three years.
Building resilient portfolios in markets delivering mixed messages can be a challenging affair. In our ongoing engagement with the retail and advisor community at VettaFi, we hear first-hand just how investors are tackling that challenge this year.
Markets have treated AI as a gold rush of LLMs, chips and cloud applications, but as the industry shifts from chatbots to agentic systems — AI that autonomously runs workflows and makes decisions — hyperscalers are now facing a brutal physical bottleneck.
Interest rates remain one of the primary concerns for investors as Kevin Warsh has officially assumed leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). While we believe the possibility of a rate cut has diminished considerably, we are not yet expecting additional rate hikes.
The job market was surprisingly strong in May with non-farm payrolls growing 172,000, beating even the strongest forecasts for the month. As a result, the futures market is now pricing in a quarter-point rate hike later this year and more likely than not another quarter point rate hike sometime in 2027.
It’s no secret that investors are on the lookout for opportunities in their fixed income portfolios. This is especially true in today’s shifting landscape. Equities are hot, perhaps too hot, and many investors want strong performances out of their bonds in order to keep up.
Fertilizers sit at the center of this transmission mechanism. As much as a third of the global supply of these commodities passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely been closed for three months. This has triggered shortages and a price spike.
In case you’ve been living under a rock for the past few months, three of the world’s largest and most consequential private companies—SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI—are preparing to go public in the same year. Together, they could add nearly $4 trillion in market cap to public markets.
Labor market fundamentals have improved meaningfully from last year’s near standstill while inflation has moved higher, driven in part by the Iran conflict and the resulting increase in petroleum and gasoline prices. As a result, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are likely becoming more concerned about the risk of broader inflation pressures, a theme highlighted in this week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI releases.
As we go to press, fighting in the Mideast has escalated, sending crude higher, but stocks, in early Monday trade, have shown remarkable stability following Friday’s deep selloff.
Metals Focus has released its Gold Focus 2026 report. It includes comprehensive historical supply and demand data for 2017-25 and its 2026 forecast.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topoussis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
We are halfway through 2026, and the planning priorities that have defined our client work this year are in focus. Some of what we are doing is recurring: fixing compliance errors, correcting quarterly estimate miscalculations, and keeping tax positions aligned with economic reality.
The world is not ending. It is restructuring. But restructuring, as I noted at the outset, comes with an asterisk. What is really happening is a replacement, of assumptions, of guarantees, of the architecture that held everything together for eighty years.
In light of all this, our own view is that markets remain well positioned to continue to rally over the medium term, though given their stratospheric rise of late, a bit of a pullback might be in order in the short term.
Chuck argues that valuation should be based primarily on current earnings, which are known and measurable, rather than future earnings estimates, which are inherently uncertain. A P/E ratio of 15 equates to an earnings yield of approximately 6.67%, a return level that has historically aligned with the long-term returns investors have earned from stocks.
Our broad message for the second half of 2026 is this: Income still matters, but investors should be selective. Despite the recent rise in Treasury yields, we suggest investors favor a below-benchmark average duration with their bond holdings, favoring short- and intermediate-term maturities.
An increasing number of our neighbors are now retired. As they have made that transition, their sensitivity to the costs of living has increased, as has their skepticism over the way that inflation is measured. A common refrain: “I don’t care what the numbers say…things are REALLY expensive these days!”
With tech stocks pushing to new highs on enthusiasm around transformational technologies, the real question isn’t just momentum. It’s whether markets are becoming frothy, even bubble‑like, reminiscent of the dot‑com era. We don’t think so.
Trade policy returned to the spotlight this week as the United States announced new tariffs on 60 countries, with rates of either 10% or 12.5% depending on the trading partner.
Confirming that the bar is high for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor makers’ earnings reports, shares of Broadcom (AVGO) plunged 12.59% on June 4, a day after the chip giant delivered quarterly results. The results weren’t the problem. It was a lack of a positive update regarding AI semiconductor demand.
In my more than two decades covering index funds, I have never seen anything quite like the frenzy surrounding the SpaceX IPO. The sheer scale and market anticipation of this pending debut this week have done something rare. It has encouraged index providers to re-evaluate how they build and maintain benchmarks that are tracked by trillions of dollars.
The U.S. labor market took center stage last week as three major labor market indicators outperformed forecasts. Robust payroll additions in both the public and private sectors, paired with a massive surge in job openings, point to a workforce on solid footing.
For years, the retirement industry has framed the challenge the same way: Participants aren’t engaged enough. Employers need better communication. Advisors need to educate more.
In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey argues that reports of inflation's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Drawing on both recent economic data and historical parallels, he contends that the United States may be entering a second wave of a broader long-term inflationary cycle reminiscent of the inflationary era of the 1960s and 1970s.
In the first phase of the generative AI boom, the winning strategy was straightforward: own the physical bottleneck. Alphabet’s plan announced this week to raise $80 billion suggests that the next phase may hinge on something else—the ability to finance AI capacity at scale without undermining returns.
The latest Emerging Markets Insights discusses companies across various sectors that have expressed cautious optimism for the second half of 2026 despite ongoing geopolitical pressures and higher input costs. Templeton Global Investments highlight what they observed at a recently attended summit.
On June 4, Vanguard launched the Vanguard U.S. High-Yield Corporate Bond Index ETF (VCHY) on the Cboe BZX. VCHY provides ultra-low-cost exposure to higher-yield U.S. corporate bonds. It comes with an expense ratio of just five basis points.
Ride the momentum wave. Discover how tech-fueled factors propelled momentum and high-beta ETFs to historic, benchmark-crushing gains.
Bond ETFs secured a record $64 billion in monthly inflows, driving total fixed-income ETF assets above $2.5 trillion.
When it comes to systematic investing, numbers tell only part of the story. Traditional quantitative models rely on prices, earnings, and balance sheet data, but words matter too.
