We get a big bunch of data reports this week: GDP revisions and economy-wide corporate profits for the first quarter; durable goods, new home sales, personal income, and consumer spending for May; home prices for April.
An ounce of optimism, a pound of prudence. It’s still a good time to be measured about taking risks in equities, but we believe the longer-term horizon holds particular promise for active stock pickers.
After an outstanding 2022, global liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices have weakened in 2023. However, the long-term outlook for LNG remains constructive as customers continue to sign 20-year purchase agreements with US exporters. This note discusses growing US LNG export capacity and how this benefits midstream companies.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates, and inflation.
Today's U.S. equity market is highly concentrated, with seven stocks contributing to an astonishing 96% of the Russell 1000 Index's year-to-date return.
We continue to watch the fascinating developments in Russia. While the coup has failed and Yevgeny Prigozhin is either in exile or meeting a worse fate, the reality of the situation is that Russia is on a path to internal strife.
Stress in the banking sector — whether or not more banks fail — remains an area of concern for us because of potential implications for the Treasury and agency MBS markets.
The current market speculation surrounding artificial intelligence (A.I.) has garnered everyone’s attention.
This article will cover some of the top small-cap ETFs based on their year-to-date (YTD) performance.
Today the minutes of the April 27-28, 2023, Bank of Japan meeting were released. Below in italics are the top ten highlights generated by our AI engine.
Heading into 2023, a looming recession dominated the headlines.
Macroeconomic uncertainty has remained front and center in 2023 as the new investment regime continues to play out. Inflation remains above central bank targets and some signs of economic weakness have started to surface in the wake of rapid monetary tightening.
Volatile input prices have been a major inflationary force.
The complexity of some risk management platforms can lead to a steep learning curve for institutional investors, draining resources and creating stress.
Is recession still coming? Of course. But some funny things are happening on the way there.
Imagine a new digital environment where our data is portable and democratized, challenging the current monopolies. Web3 promises to be such an environment, using blockchain technology.
Exchange Advisor Council members Anna N’Jie-Konte and Keith Beverly have merged practices. The two advisors have set their sights on the goal of creating the first black-owned RIA with over $1 billion in client assets.
To recap, we tested the following metrics, drawn from each company’s fiscal year-end reports and stated in USD, and correlated them with the percent price return in local currency over the past five years.
Since the March trough the S&P 500 Index has gained around 14% and ten-year Treasury yields have risen roughly 0.50%. As market conditions have improved, inter-asset correlations have also shifted.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The exit from a decade of very low interest rates, via the most aggressive hiking cycle since 1980 has laid bare the distorted financing incentives that became entrenched in the years between the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and the end of pandemic-era monetary policies in 2022.
This article will explore the expense ratios and YTD returns of four ETFs investing in AI with some of the lowest fees in the market. By comparing these key metrics, investors can evaluate which ETF may be the most cost-effective option for gaining exposure to the AI industry.
Japanese stocks may help boost the performance of international markets although the unique nature of Japan's economic and business structure could pose some risks.
Though recent data suggests China's re-opening growth has slowed, it's likely temporary. As China's recovery continues, it may have implications for U.S. inflation and rates.
Political risks have always been present in emerging debt markets and we’ve long taken them into consideration within our overall country risk process.
In this article and video, we are going to cover Fidelity National Information Services.
I was watching NBC Nightly News the other night, and they ran a story about how there is no housing inventory because people are trapped in their mortgages.
Sticky inflation looks to compel developed markets (DM) central banks to crank policy rates higher – and keep policy tight for longer. The Federal Reserve paused last week but pointed to more hikes on the way.
“It’s a ‘New Bull Market’!” Over the past few days, the call of a new bull market has plastered headlines and media commentary.
Sunsetting a core benchmark rate is no small feat.
The period of large upside surprises to global data prints, which dominated the first quarter, seems to be over for now, but it is a major leap to suggest recession is now imminent.
With unanimity, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate in its current range, but updated projections suggest this rate-hike cycle is not yet over.
While the Euro Area reported inflation of 6.1% in May, the US was able to post 6% year-over-year as of February. In this framework, a hike, and potentially two more to follow, was to be expected before a pause could occur.
In this article, we examine three important indicators from the past week: the consumer price index, the producer price index, and retail sales. By examining these data points, we gain valuable information about inflation in the U.S. and consumer spending patterns and their response to the ongoing inflation battle.
Although once considered a niche strategy, secondaries have matured and now represent a vital cog in the private equity ecosystem, according to Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow.
Lately, it’s been easy to see the optimism. As of the Friday close, the S&P 500 is up 15% so far this year (not including dividends) and up 23% (again, without dividends) versus the lowest bear-market close back in October.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has garnered widespread attention with the public launch of ChatGPT. Learn how these same technologies can be used in investing.
Our long-term outlook for commercial real estate investing argues for a flexible, long-term approach to seize opportunities in debt and equity investments across the real estate landscape.
Bull markets and bear markets can’t be identified in real-time – only in hindsight. More importantly, the return/risk profile of a “bull market” or a “bear market” can change dramatically depending on whether valuations are consistent with the beginning of a market cycle or the end of one.
Quarterly Macro Themes, a quarterly publication from our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, spotlights critical and timely areas of research and updates our baseline views on the economy.
At its June meeting, the Fed opted to forgo an increase in its key lending rate for the first time since March 2022 but projected that more rate hikes may be possible by year-end. Our investment strategy analyst shares his thoughts on when the central bank’s rate-hiking journey could finally end.
In this article, we will explore why advisors may not need to worry about illiquidity regarding ESG and other specialty ETFs. We will also offer some tips on how to mitigate any potential issues.
Most of the things we expected to happen during the first half of the year in fact did: Inflation eased, U.S. economic growth slowed, the Federal Reserve appears to be near the end of its rate-hike cycle, and the U.S. government debt ceiling standoff was resolved before a potential default.
The Federal Reserve paused in June but raised its estimates for the policy rate later this year. We expect a July increase but remain skeptical about subsequent hikes.
With the passage of SECURE 2.0, new in-plan emergency savings solutions are on the horizon. What have the past five years of research taught us about the connection between short-term and long-term financial security? And how can 401(k) plans benefit from lessons learned?
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, James Comtois, and Elle Caruso debate the pros and cons of investing in high-yield fixed-income ETFs.
The surprising resilience of the economy despite the aggressive tightening remains the Fed’s biggest challenge at this point in the cycle. Below we discuss how the Fed’s thinking will likely evolve for the remainder of the year and what it means for the markets.
Bullish sentiment has surged as the “Fear Of Missing Out,” or FOMO, kicked in in recent weeks. It is somewhat interesting to write this blog, given that we discussed the exact opposite roughly one year ago.
The intensity of the chatter around AI has led to some concerns that the space might be in a bubble or that interest in it could wane. However, a look at flows into ETFs that focus specifically on AI suggests that investor engagement remains strong.
The potential for a Fed pause presents an opportunity for investors to consider adding duration back into their portfolios.
