Over the last decade, U.S. large cap growth stocks have been far and away the best performing major financial asset in the world.
The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting signaled a notable shift in its monetary policy approach.
For 2025, the financial markets will be entering a new chapter in the ever-evolving policy story. Indeed, not only will the U.S. economy be operating under a new political and attendant fiscal backdrop, but it will also be in the midst of a different monetary policy setting—rate cuts, not the after-effects of rate hikes.
In a complex economy, agents must rely on intermediaries – including the traditional media, government, or experts – to close information gaps, anchor beliefs, and determine equilibrium. But this process can work only if the intermediaries are trustworthy, and many Americans are not convinced that they are.
We expect the playbook for emerging markets to be one of volatility at the start of the year, transitioning to growth and opportunity as U.S. trade policies and China stimulus plans become clearer.
Happy Holidays! As the page for the new calendar year will soon turn, three cheers for a happy, healthy, and prosperous new year! With 2024 rapidly drawing to a close, we reflect on the year and all that’s transpired—our readers are wonderful, the economy remains in good shape, and market returns have been stellar for those who participate.
As investors continue to step out of cash and potentially rebalance out of equities following their strong performance, we expect bonds to play a larger role in diversified portfolios next year.
It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and predicts next year’s market returns. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, these forecasts are often wrong and sometimes very wrong.
If you happen to be a Bitcoin skeptic, you’re not alone. A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general.
The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken.
Index funds emerged in the early 1970s and were designed to match rather than beat the market. For decades, they were associated with the capitalization-weighted (CW) market indexes that defined their investment approach.
As we near the end of 2024, researchers, businesses, and investors have begun to question the overheated artificial intelligence sentiment.
Since we are not going to publish Weekly Economics on December 27, 2024, we will take this opportunity to say farewell to 2024 and to all our readers, we want to wish you a very happy holiday season and a very prosperous New Year 2025!
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year but signaled the path forward will likely be more gradual – and less certain – than previously forecast.
In an actively managed portfolio, there’s no way to escape capital gains taxes altogether. But understanding the importance of tax efficiency is crucial to long-term success for investors and advisors.
Macroeconomic uncertainties prompted the Federal Reserve to signal a slower pace of policy rate cuts in 2025 and beyond.
From start to finish, 2024 was a year of change, with a multitude of implications for investors.
Taxpayers may want to consider a Roth IRA conversion for 2024 but need to act before the end of the year to realize income this year. Our Bill Cass explains when a Roth conversion may make sense.
Start the new year right by reviewing and revamping your financial plan.
We expect the opportunity set to widen for income investors in 2025, though less clarity around the second half requires a dynamic approach.
Today’s video on the Industrials Sector is another in the continuing series of videos where we are looking for value in each of the 10 major sectors as reported by Standard & Poor’s.
We believe that there are several guardrails in place that considerably limit the extent of presidential influence over monetary policy decisions.
I must confess, I have been aware of quantum computing for quite some time, but it was one of those things that always seemed far off. It’s now getting much closer.
This brief market commentary will run through some stats and provide context to the market’s recent fluctuations.
As the year comes to a close, we revisit some of the key market themes and moves for 2024 and the year ahead.
Despite the expectation of rate cuts, a push-pull dynamic could exist if high inflation continues, opening the door for short-term bonds.
As expected, the Fed delivered a 25-basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, but what comes next is far from clear. Kevin Flanagan explains why future rate moves depend on shifting economic signals and why the Fed’s definition of “neutral” may be evolving.
With persistent inflation and a resilient economy, the Fed's updated projections show two rate cuts next year.
With economic growth rising at a stronger rate than expected for this part of the cycle and inflation holding above the 2.0% target, the Fed appears more cautious about the need for rate cuts.
As the year comes to a busy conclusion, we’re still catching up with news that didn’t make the front page. In the first week of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published a data release that’s even less frequent than the four year presidential election cycle.
The modern Chinese political system emphasizes stability and control, qualities that enabled the country to become the world’s “ultimate producer.” But these qualities imply tight control over social norms and individual behavior, and they are far less applicable to official efforts to boost household consumption.
The Exchange Team is full of gratitude for our sponsors and the community coming to the 2025 financial services conference.
Taxes are on my mind. Do I factor in whether a dividend is considered qualified or ordinary when making my recommendations?
On Friday December 6th, the U.S. stock market pushed to the most extreme level of valuation in U.S. history
U.S. stocks retreated as the Fed indicated it likely would lower rates only twice in 2025. The Dow dropped more than 1,000 points, and the S&P slid almost 3%. The Nasdaq lost 3.6%.
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) recently blocked the merger of Albertson’s and Kroger, which are the two largest stand-alone grocery chains.
As we approach the start of a new year, it is a good time to take a fresh look at your portfolio to ensure that it still aligns with your long-term goals.
As cash yields dwindle, the case for fixed income becomes increasingly compelling.
Why cyclical leadership in equities could continue into 2025.
The range of potential economic outcomes is wide, but a solid starting point suggests resilience.
In his 2025 investment outlook, Head of U.S. Fixed Income Greg Wilensky outlines the most likely scenarios for the U.S. economy and which asset classes he believes will be best positioned under each scenario.
At the time of year where everyone is reflecting on the things that matter most to them in their personal lives, it is important to also consider what matters when it comes to investing. In this investment commentary, Johnson Financial Group shares what really matters as you put your money to work.
A conversation with our stock selection team, part two.
Brent Olson and Thomas Ross, fixed income portfolio managers, believe that high yield bonds offer comfortable driving for now, but investors might need to negotiate more difficult terrain later in 2025.
Surprises most often are hiding in plain sight. Being aware and prepared with a plan for the unexpected are keys to achieving goals.
We continue to agree with market pricing following the ECB’s latest rate cut, but see additional downside risks to growth post-U.S. election.
Last weekend, the Cathedral of Notre Dame reopened after being severely damaged in a fire five years ago. It took thousands of craftsmen and a reported €840 million to restore the iconic structure.
If history repeats itself, this trend could be especially pronounced in 2025, given the potential for lower US corporate tax rates and domestic-friendly policies.
Understanding the trajectory of corporate earnings is crucial for investors, as these earnings significantly influence stock valuations and market performance.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin discussed U.S. equity-market strength as well as recent rate decisions from key central banks.
