The need for old age support is on the rise, as is its cost.
When most people hear the word “risk,” they think about wild market swings, scary headlines, and losing money overnight, but Howard Marks, Co-Chairman and Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management, takes a different approach. In his new video series How to Think About Risk, Marks digs deep into what risk is and how investors should handle it. Spoiler alert: It’s not just about volatility.
Everything I’ve learned and experienced in 50+ years of watching the economy tells me not to expect a soft landing. But maybe that’s because I’ve never actually seen one.
With over 36,000 metric tons in reserves—about one-fifth of all the gold ever mined—central banks know something we should too: Gold is the ultimate safety net.
The latest Employment Situation Report released on October 4, 2024, showed nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 in September, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.
As the Fed shifts its stance, investors must now weigh the broader economic implications.
For decades, a key component of many investors’ portfolios was a fixed income ladder. It was intended to provide ballast to the more volatile equity allocation and help reduce interest-rate risk.
Commodity returns are hard to predict, yet all commodities have something in common—prices that tend to return to their long-run average, a characteristic described as mean reversion. For investors, this behavior could offer an exciting opportunity to improve long-term performance potential.
China’s leaders appear to be back on a pragmatic macro policy path, but more course corrections will be required to change the direction of the world’s second-largest economy. Beijing must continue to be less stubborn, and we will need to be patient.
In the past few years it certainly has been. No wonder.
Credit indices rallied during the third quarter, despite a variety of economic headwinds, and it appears FOMO (fear of missing out) is fueling the bullish sentiment more than fundamentals.
The latest S&P 500 rebalance introduced Dell and Palantir to the index, and Apple’s weight grew with annual float changes, signaling technology’s ongoing influence.
The US debt is near its highest level in history and on track to grow. Neither political party currently seems intent on making it more sustainable.
The market continues to trend higher on Goldilocks pixie dust.
Our research shows that on average U.S. stocks performed well a year after the start of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle.
September was a solid month for investors, capping off a strong quarter for markets. Falling interest rates helped support stock returns, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average setting new record highs during the month. Even bonds were up, marking five straight months with positive fixed income performance.
VettaFi looks at midstream/MLPs by subsector and underlying trends driving strong performance through the first three quarters of 2024.
Quarterly recap: Fed rate cut and Chinese stimulus take the spotlight.
Taxes are top of mind for many. See what the US presidential candidates stand on tax policy as we enter the final weeks before the election. Our Bill Cass compares their plans.
After the Fed's 50-basis-point rate cut, big banks kick off earnings season amid fears that lower rates could hurt the net-interest income that propelled growth the last two years.
With storm clouds forming above equities and fixed income markets, is now the right time for institutions to grab their private credit labeled umbrella?
We have openly promoted increasing duration over the last several months. An increase may seem like an odd “wish” as it implies taking on greater price risk.
In the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated.
Distressed US real estate presents one of the best opportunities in a generation – but the investment window is closing. Advisors can benefit, but given distressed investing’s complexity, it’s critical they partner with the right managers.
The 2022 broad market downturn across major asset classes came as a nasty surprise to investors. Historically, such an event is very rare, and no one was expecting to see almost all asset classes down for the year. Yet, even though it might seem as if diversification was of no help in 2022, the story changes if we look beyond the major headline asset classes.
In the last year, we’ve written about the poor performance of clean energy, while highlighting the strong long-term outlook for the sector and the attractive valuations. These are typically the sorts of things we focus on…valuations and the long-term fundamental prospects for companies. We tend to shy away from overanalyzing short-term market dynamics.
Supply chain disruptions related to the port workers’ strike loom, the impacts of which we know can be incredibly destructive.
Long-term US Treasury yields rose last week as investors digested mixed economic data that reinforced the idea of a "Goldilocks" economy.
A series of unprecedented and historic events has completely shifted the candidates and dynamics of the race for the presidency and Congress.
Should China deliver sufficient stimulus to break the cycle of tightening fiscal policy, we may find China, and emerging markets, investable again.
The puck has certainly moved since our last market commentary. This month, we argue that the needle on portfolio construction should move with it. Equities have been the driver of returns for much of the last few years.
Alpha (α) is a fundamental yet poorly understood concept in finance. Simply put, it is the difference between the return of an investment and that of a risk-adjusted benchmark. In a more advanced definition, alpha is the residual in an asset pricing equation (see Appendix A). Alpha is what active managers strive to achieve and passive managers do not pursue.
The wait is over for earnings watchers, as the latest quarterly read on US corporations kicks off with reports from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo on Friday. Earnings will provide a gut check on the state of the US economy, and investors will be looking for these results to confirm the mostly improving economic data that’s been released in the last month or so.
Tougher stances on trade are a point of bipartisan agreement.
The Fed’s “recalibration” of monetary policy is more than just about shifting to rate cuts. It also involves where the policy maker is now placing its greater emphasis on setting the course for easing in the future. Rather than inflation being the primary driver in the decision-making process, labor market activity has now taken center stage, and with that, one could argue, for the Fed, it’s now about the economy.
With interest rates declining, enthusiasm for muni bond ETFs could be reborn in income investors, including retirees.
Market participation broadened beyond technology stocks during the third quarter.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin examined the current state of the U.S. economy and outlined key investor watchpoints ahead of third-quarter earnings season.
Many emerging markets have delivered a robust performance this quarter amid a number of headwinds and we expect key geographies to build on that in the coming months.
Sports fans know that a lot can change in the fourth quarter of a game. So too for the U.S. economy, as a substantial labor action commenced the minute that calendars turned to the fourth quarter of 2024.
The jobs report closed last week with robust read outs of an official number that beat economist expectations. Below the surface, however, hours worked fell to levels often associated with recessions. This juxtaposition of more workers clocking fewer hours suggests that while employment figures are up, the quantity of work didn’t expand much.
As the November 2024 election draws near, the election outcome will profoundly affect the financial markets. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidency, each administration will bring distinct policies creating investment opportunities and potential risks for investors. With a divisive political landscape, it is crucial to understand how these potential outcomes can shape the stock market and your portfolio strategy.
Earnings season usually lasts around six weeks, so this wave of data will take us almost to Thanksgiving.
Last week marked the beginning of the end of one of the most rapid interest rate hiking cycles in U.S. history.
Real estate stocks are notoriously rate-sensitive assets. It’s not surprising the delivery of the rate cuts were beneficial to the sector.
The federal debt is already $35 trillion and currently rising by roughly $2 trillion every year – with no end in sight. As a result, some investors are worried that the US could become a 21st Century version of Argentina: completely bankrupt and unable to pay the bills.
Just like road trips can bring unexpected detours, the economy and financial markets are at their own crossroads: recession or soft landing?
We bring together historical and real-time analysis for insight into the economy, markets, and potential alpha opportunities and risks we’re watching.
Policymakers have recognized China's slower economy.
Monetary policy began to transition from restrictive to neutral last quarter, and we’re optimistic that continued easing can prevent a hard landing.
