As speculation builds around a Warsh-led Federal Reserve, the prospect of eliminating the ‘dot plot’ could mark a major shift in forward guidance—potentially increasing rate volatility and reshaping how fixed income markets price policy risk.
Artificial intelligence-themed companies certainly propelled the stock market to greater heights in 2025. Near the tail of end of the year, however, market experts questioned whether certain companies benefiting from the AI theme had the underlying fundamentals to support their lofty valuations.
If trade policy were like a boxing match, the U.S. had hoped tariffs would be a decisive, knockout blow. While many of America’s trading partners reeled, they stayed on their feet and are wearing down their opponent.
Small-caps and the related equities have found their respective grooves. The fact that the Russell 2000 Index is higher by more than 7% year-to-date confirms this. On the surface, the small-cap resurgence is good news.
In investing and life, spending your time on critical variables and what is really important directionally pays dividends. AI can legitimately reduce “task time” in the investment business, but it does not replace experience and judgement. Not having double-digit bodies running around also helps one focus.
The U.S. is on the back end of fourth-quarter earnings season, and the overall tone from corporate management teams has been constructive. For the S&P 500 Index, earnings growth tracked close to 15% year-over-year, marking a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
This week, Burger King announced the first changes to its signature Whopper in nearly a decade. New premium bun. Creamier mayonnaise. A clamshell box instead of paper wrap that left the burger smashed before you ever opened it.
With traditional private equity investment exits facing difficulty over the past few years — albeit improving somewhat recently — private equity sponsors have increasingly relied on the use of continuation funds. Once a niche tool, continuation funds have become mainstream and investors should learn to understand how they work, why they exist, and what risks they carry.
Last year’s market surge wasn’t built on hype. New research from Alger shows that AI spending and the accompanying infrastructure buildout drove corporate earnings higher, with fundamentals doing the heavy lifting rather than investor sentiment alone.
As the Q4 earnings season draws to a close, the market finds itself at a crossroads of record-breaking AI growth and shifting fiscal policy.
After underperforming for much of the last decade, emerging-market (EM) equities rebounded nicely in 2025. Is it too late to invest? We don’t think so. With valuations still attractive and earnings growth forecasts looking up, this could be the right time to give the developing world a closer look.
Q4 wrapped a solid year of U.S. company earnings. But as the numbers rolled in strong, stock markets oscillated widely. Fundamental Equities Global CIO Carrie King is optimistic as she looks ahead to 2026 and offers three observations on the prevailing dissonance.
When I was preparing to write my December memo about artificial intelligence, Is It a Bubble?, I gained a great deal from speaking with some interesting techies in their thirties and forties. It’s stimulating to explore fresh territory and an absolute requirement for staying current as an investor.
The recent report by Citrini Research paints a frightening future of massive AI- induced unemployment, crashing stock markets, rising default rates, and a general descent into economic chaos.
Markets could face near-term volatility in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down tariffs levied under the Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling creates a complex landscape as markets adapt to multiple unresolved issues, including raised global tariffs, investigations and potential refunds.
2026 offers plenty of opportunity in tech investing once again following a breakout year for tech AI tech in 2025. Inventors want that tech upside, but this year could behoove investors to diversify outside of AI hyperscalers.
U.S. job creation has been weak despite resilient gross domestic product growth. Here's what may be going on.
Equity Dislocation celebrated its fifth birthday in October, and we are delighted that this was enjoyed in the positive context of returning 15.8% gross (13.4% net) for 2025.
Managers are strategically maintaining AI exposure toward memory and semiconductor supply chains, and rotating toward enterprise adopters while trimming crowded hyperscalers.
While the equity market has its well‑known “January Effect,” credit markets also show a seasonal pattern. Looking back over nearly three decades of data, January tends to be one of the better months for corporate bond spreads.
Let’s develop a scenario to explain the importance of foreign exchange (FX) markets and specifically, the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Say, for example, Thailand, one of the world’s major rice exporters, engages in trade with Brazil, the second‑largest cotton exporter.
In RBA's February insight, we explore how growth and value companies have shifted over time and why today's markets may no longer force investors to choose between quality and dividends.
For years, affluent families planned under the assumption that the federal estate and gift tax exemption would “sunset,” forcing a return to lower thresholds and triggering a race against time. That urgency has shifted.
After peaking above 114 in September 2022, the dollar index has spent the last several years drifting lower, touching 96 a few weeks ago before stabilizing at 97.68 as we write. Much of that move has stemmed from weakness relative to the euro specifically.
Carry is an important return driver for multi-asset futures and forwards. Simple trend signals have benefited from trading in line with, not against, the carry of an asset.
The agenda is being reset for US shareholder meetings in 2026. Regulatory shifts have led to a steep decline in overall shareholder proposals while governance issues are becoming the biggest battleground.
The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday invalidated tariffs that President Donald Trump had imposed under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Most of the administration’s 2025 tariffs will therefore be rolled back, and importers should eventually receive refunds.
The year got off to a cold start in the U.S., with many regions experiencing unusually freezing temperatures and precipitation. February has brought relief in both the weather and in economic reports.
Almost 1,000 active ETFs launched in 2025, but did their performance substantiate the demand? Across the universe of funds, active managers for ETFs and mutual funds found that outperformance was elusive compared to their passive peers based on the latest Morningstar US Active/Passive Barometer report.
Despite early volatility driven by global bond market stress, tariff-related tensions, renewed inflation concerns, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership, equities finished January higher, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs.
On a recent episode of Road to Exchange, VettaFi Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth interviewed Jennifer Morgan, Founder & CEO of Connective Communications. Morgan is slated to bring her “Storyselling” workshop to the Exchange Conference.
2026 may already be more than a month in, but advisors and investors are still quite keen to navigate the complex geopolitical market in order to find the most opportune investment opportunities.
In a notable shift for the start of 2026, the S&P 500 is experiencing a divergence in factor performance. Typically, high beta (aggressive, high-risk) and low volatility (defensive, safe-haven) factors sit on opposite sides of the seesaw. When one goes up, the other usually comes down.
As the artificial intelligence (AI) transformation unfolds, Portfolio Managers Denny Fish, John Lloyd, and John Kerschner share their views on equity valuations, identifying the next wave of winners, and the impact on fixed income markets as companies aggressively raise capital to finance the AI boom.
The playing field presents broad opportunities for income investors today, with income and growth potential across asset classes. But an effective defense is also critical in capturing that potential. When it comes to the tools of the trade, we think broader is better.
Money – everybody wants it, but few actually have it. As shown in recent financial statistics, the “wealth gap” in America continues to grow between the “haves” and the “have-nots.”
Gold’s sharp swings and a new Federal Reserve chair are not separate stories. In a recent episode of the Money Metals podcast, Mike Maharrey sat down with Axel Merk, President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, to connect the dots between market turbulence and what may be a structural shift at the Fed.
On Friday, the Supreme Court struck down most of the tariffs the Trump administration had imposed over the past year. The question before the court was not whether the tariffs themselves were illegal, but whether the mechanism by which they were enacted was legal.
Routine physical checkups are an important component of healthcare. A doctor can identify potential problems and coach the patient toward making healthier choices.
LPL Research’s Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) sits at the center of our portfolio construction process because it defines how we expect diversified portfolios to generate more stable long‑term outcomes across shifting market environments. The SAA is the long‑term plan for how major asset classes work together in a portfolio.
To stay at the forefront of lifecycle investing, fiduciaries must continually evolving to meet the changing realities of markets, participants, and longevity.
The breadth of opportunities in 2026 is unlike anything we’ve seen since 2010. While markets remain fixated on crypto, AI, and speculation, leadership is already shifting toward more fundamentally strong, under-owned regions of the world.
Every market cycle has its own character, but certain patterns appear frequently enough that they deserve attention. This is especially true when evaluating early-year rallies in small caps.
As the hunt for yield and stability remains a cornerstone of portfolios in 2026, a group of iShares short-term bond ETFs have made a strategic move to the Big Board today.
According to the UN World Tourism Organization, an estimated 1.52 billion international tourists traveled the world in 2025. That’s nearly 60 million more than the year before, representing 4% growth, and it marks a return to the steady, pre-pandemic growth trend of 5% annually that the industry enjoyed between 2009 and 2019.
Fourth-quarter GDP came in at 1.4%, a sharp markdown from early estimates that were inflated by a temporary collapse in the trade deficit.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and known as “Mr. Valuation,” explains a fundamental truth every investor must understand: valuation matters, and it matters a lot. Responding to subscriber questions about software companies, AI disruption, and specific stock requests, Chuck uses real examples to teach the core principles that drive long-term investment success.
The global energy transition is accelerating, and 2026 is shaping up to be an active year for renewable energy development. As we see it, private credit’s central role in financing the power build-out and its ability to structure flexible solutions for borrowers is likely to generate attractive return opportunities for investors.
Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions
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