I literally grew up in the oil patch: Wise County, Texas, 60 or 70 miles northwest of Fort Worth in a little town called Bridgeport. The two first-generation Greek immigrant brothers who became Mitchell Energy talked old man Christie into funding Christie, Mitchell and Mitchell and they drilled (hundreds?) of natural gas wells which they eventually sold to an Illinois utility. This was in the 1950s and ‘60s.
The central bank noted that substantial progress has been made in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation, and expressed concerns around growth and policy transmission lags.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
It is unlikely that US corporate defined benefit (DB) pensions will have to face liquidity issues like those UK DB pensions recently witnessed, primarily because of their different approach to valuing liabilities, varying use of derivatives/leverage, and therefore a different investment style of liability-driven investing (LDI), according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Tom Meyers.
As investors weigh conflicting economic data and the prospects for a Fed pivot, precious metals markets are quietly basing out.
Weakening jobs picture will signal that Fed tightening is working as intended.
In this Global Macro Update, we discuss the trifecta of trends that caused the current inflationary environment… why an economic slowdown won’t cure inflation... the three sectors every investor should own today… and much more.
Short-term bonds currently offer higher yields than longer-term ones, but there are risks in holding only short-term bonds.
Last week, the FOMC published its minutes from the September meeting, confirming its recent stance that Fed rate hikes will continue until inflation is vanquished.
It has always been important to separate one’s political views from one’s investment portfolio.
Quality investing is an approach well suited to small cap equity.
It has been widely reported that President Biden made a plea to Saudi Arabia to increase oil production earlier this year in an effort to get oil prices down ahead of the mid-term elections.
Is tax drag holding your clients back?
Markets can have more sway over policymakers than vice versa, as demonstrated in the U.K. recently.
Now that the Party Congress is over, Xi Jinping has one big decision to make. Sinology explores.
The balanced portfolio strategy of allocating 60% to equities and 40% to fixed income generated a highly satisfactory 7.9% annualized return over the last 30 years.
Technology stocks have been pummeled this year, leading some investors to question the sector’s future.
In recent reports, we’ve been highlighting that innovation—as a factor represented by R&D as % of sales—has stopped underperforming and it is selling for an attractive valuation.
Franklin Mutual Series believes that fewer value investors in the market today may mean better opportunities for those who remain.
In this piece, we update our valuation charts and commentary, with additional details on our methodology available upon request.
Newton's First Law of Motion states that an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless an external force acts upon it.
Despite crypto markets being one of the hardest hit throughout the bear market that has engulfed almost all risk assets over the past 12 months, we have seen crypto not only hold up relatively well since the June lows but indeed be one of the better performing asset classes.
It is difficult to convince yourself that if things are going a certain way they will not continue down the same path indefinitely.
The Federal Reserve finally stopped referring to inflation as “transitory” earlier this year and got serious about trying to control the painful rise in prices it has caused.
U.S. stocks are trading mixed in pre-market action.
There are lots of “total return” bond funds these days, almost a half century since I innovated the concept in 1987.
In North America and the U.S. specifically, the hunt for lithium, a key component of batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs), has historically trailed a handful of other countries.
After a decade of decadence in which the base money supply was multiplied more than seven-fold in an effort to prevent deflation, broader measures of money supply and consumer prices may have only just begun catching up.
Most investors we talk to think the US is already in a recession or that a recession will start by the end of 2022. We think they’re wrong on both counts.
Investors love easy-to-follow “rules.” The simpler, the better.
Stocks rose last week (S&P 500 +4.7%) after falling to a 2.5 year low the week before. The increase was attributable to technical and sentiment reasons, but also Q3 earnings reports coming in less bad than feared.
“Recession Fatigue” is setting in as consumers struggle under rising interest rates, high inflation, and a declining stock market.
Internal priorities and external circumstances have brought China's growth to an inflection point.
With mortgage rates more than doubling from ~3% to over 7% today the difference in cost between buying a home twelve months ago compared to today is very big.
UK government bonds prices have plunged recently. Sterling-denominated corporate bonds have also fallen sharply and are looking cheap.
Key Takeaways
Macro uncertainties and tightening financial conditions are pressuring the real estate investment market. Tim Wang, Head of Investment Research for Clarion Partners, discusses the challenges and opportunities in this current environment.
Investors today probably feel a bit like the joker and the thief from Dylan’s classic, “All Along the Watchtower” – there’s too much confusion, they can’t get no relief. But our Core Equity team believes there is a way outta here – investing in dominant companies that pay growing dividends.
With this week’s announcement that the White House is deploying nearly $3 billion to boost domestic output of EV batteries and the minerals used to make them, it may be time for investors to take notice.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities can be a buffer against long-term inflation, but it's possible for TIPS price declines to outpace principal adjustment in the short term.
At the beginning of 2022, our most reliable stock market valuation measures stood at record levels, beyond even their 1929 and 2000 extremes. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.5%, the 30-year Treasury bond yield was at 1.9%, and Treasury bill yields were just 0.06%. By our estimates, that combination produced the most negative expected return for a conventional passive investment portfolio in U.S. history.
China's 20th National Congress could help air ideas for more growth-supportive policies.
In the context of a rough year so far, it's a good time to review whether this is just a bump in the road or something more serious to prepare for.
After a strong rebound from the pandemic in 2021, it’s been all downhill for the global economy this year. Economic activity is being hindered as policymakers cope with the hottest inflation in decades, impairments from the Ukraine war, and China’s prolonged lockdowns. Recession fears are starting to come true.
Much attention has been paid to the elevated risk (and announcement) of a recession, but investors should instead focus on signals coming from leading economic indicators.
Balancing financial gain and personal values can be a challenge for investors. A fund of funds approach to impact investing can help to provide the best of both worlds.
While the Fed continues to hike rates to combat high inflation levels aggressively, history shows that deflation will become a more significant threat when something “breaks” in the financial or credit markets.
If the prolonged period of declining and ultra-low interest rates is over, what does that mean future corporate profits, cash flows and dividends?
The Fed remains singularly focused on containing inflation but has made little headway so far.
The investors in the Smead International Value Fund have asked our team at Smead Capital Management what looks attractive today.
