Establishing the optimal workplace retirement plan follows a pecking order, which starts by prioritizing plan design over investments. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses the process.
The US economic data released in early August not only triggered a brief, but dramatic episode of financial-market volatility. It also fueled an abnormal degree of instability in forecasts by leading Wall Street economists, suggesting that they, like the Federal Reserve, may have lost their strategic bearings.
Copper has been trending lower since the middle of May, but supply disruptions in Latin America could help reverse that trend.
As tax season draws nearer, advisors and investors increasingly look to their portfolio to optimize exposures for taxation purposes.
When you see that behavior at extreme valuations, it tends to be a sign of underlying skittishness and risk aversion. When valuations are setting record extremes because the news can’t get any better, even a slightly less optimistic outlook becomes a risk.
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
Many recent studies have been done on the economics of different generations. Researchers want to know if Millennials and Gen Z are in fact worse off than their Boomer and Gen X parents. There are quite a few ways to look at this data.
When global equity markets tumbled in early August, investors got a glimpse of what a deeper correction could like for the US giants, and it wasn’t pretty. The so-called Magnificent Seven have dominated US and global equity market returns since late 2022—and valuations have soared—as earnings growth rebounded and on expectations that they will be the big winners from artificial intelligence (AI).
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
Those warning that the US Federal Reserve is dragging the economy down are deeply mistaken. Far from being too restrictive, US monetary policy is almost certainly too loose, judging by the robustness of financial markets and broader economic conditions even after 500 basis points of interest-rate hikes.
The path for lower rates in the U.S. has finally arrived.
While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.
The “Sahm Rule,” a widely used metric for determining the early stages of recession, was triggered in July.
Is the Japanese yen carry trade back on? Tough question. We think it is, now that the Bank of Japan has toned down its hawkish rhetoric. More on that later. Still, even if we are wrong, the reality is that the market will be talking about the violent ructions of August 2024 for the rest of our careers.
In an election year, we are bound to hear a lot of commentary about the merits and drawbacks of both major candidates’ economic policies. History shows that while a president’s policies can make life easier or more difficult for various sectors of the economy, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy has much more impact on the economy overall.
HSAs are increasingly coming into use. They are a more tax-efficient means of investing, withdrawing money to cover large healthcare expenses, or simply preparing for higher medical costs in one’s later years.
An extended period of elevated interest rates may have long-term implications for both consumers and businesses—affecting how investors value company shares.
We analyze Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments about the potential for rate cuts in September and beyond.
Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?
The healthcare sector offers a compelling mix of defensive characteristics and growth potential driven by innovation. It also features ample dispersion that presents stock pickers with an opportunity to parse potential leaders and laggards in pursuit of above-market return.
High-yield bonds have been one of the best-performing bond investments so far this year, but there may be better entry points down the road.
The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock market.
The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.
Portfolio managers should always have good explanations for their underweight positions. These days, it matters more than ever.
With US payroll and unemployment data surprising to the downside two Fridays ago, Treasury markets quickly repriced the probability of impending recession, helping set off a volatility spike in stocks across the world. According to Bloomberg, economists’ consensus probability of a US recession in the next twelve months is now approximately 30%.
After a downward slide at the end of July and beginning of August, markets are attempting to recover losses. Through Friday, the S&P 500 experienced seven consecutive “up” days. Three of these up days qualified as “outlier” days (more than +/-1.50%).
A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.
My colleague Will Keenan recommended an outstanding book, The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King, by Michael Craig. The book is a short and entertaining read of how Andy Beal played the best poker players in the world heads-up. He not only gambled toe-to-toe, but he also reminded them that they were doing what everyone should think poker is: gambling.
Elevated budget deficits imply growing US Treasury issuance. Receding demand from central banks could leave more price-sensitive buyers to pick up the slack. Who are the buyers of US government debt, and how is the market responding? In part two of our series, let’s examine Treasury market supply and demand.
The 19th Century American author Mark Twain once said: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”
Midstream’s second quarter earnings calls reinforced the positive outlook for US natural gas demand driven in part by expected power demand from data centers. This note discusses the advantages of natural gas for data centers, additional factors contributing to demand growth, and how midstream is uniquely positioned to benefit from these trends.
Mining stocks can certainly benefit from gold’s run as the precious metal looks to break past the $2,600 per ounce mark. Gold prices are already up about 23% for the year and could keep on rallying with a number of tailwinds behind it.
Improve your income potential with a tactical, unconstrained strategy that sources opportunities across geographies and asset classes. BlackRock Multi-Asset Income Fund takes a risk-first approach while seeking to deliver a consistently attractive yield.
Happy National Cheap Flight Day! Yes, you heard that right—there is a national celebration day to mark the start of a lull in travel demand. Who knew this would be a day to celebrate? Regardless, it’s good news for consumers as airfares should continue their recent downward trend!
We all knew it was coming…and in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it will come next month. He said, “the time has come,” and the futures markets have priced in either a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut at the meeting on September 18.
Artificial intelligence has the potential to reshape our economies, labor markets, societies, and politics. But despite the rosy forecasts of an AI-driven boom, history shows that technological advances rarely lead to immediate improvements in living standards and often lead to profound disruption.
Powell’s remarks in Jackson Hole were more dovish than I anticipated. Powell did not hedge; the clear direction of policy was lowering rates. The focus of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) narrative was shifting away from inflation risk to employment.
In his annual Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Powell assessed the post-pandemic U.S. economy and suggested rate cuts are coming soon.
That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.
As a businessman and ex-business owner, the idea of firms ‘hoarding’ workers never made sense. As an economist, the idea of firms hoarding workers never made sense either.
The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us.
This week we take a not-so-random walk through the data, trying to simplify what is actually a fairly complex subject. I think it is quite fun, but also important. Let's dive in.
This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.
Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into a country’s overall economic health. They serve as essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses because they allow them to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Build a dividend growth portfolio. The stock market as measured by the S&P is currently at an all-time high which makes it very challenging to try to build a quality dividend growth portfolio.
Over nearly three decades, I’ve been dedicated to the sport of running. For the last five years, I chased the elusive goal of qualifying for the Boston Marathon, my ultimate aspiration. It wasn’t until I sought the expertise of a professional coach that I finally achieved this dream.
Deep value stocks are currently our highest conviction long-only investment idea. For the avoidance of any doubt, when we talk about “deep value,” we simply mean stocks that are cheap, often screamingly so, relative to our appraisal of their fair value. We do not care about a “growth” or “value” label that has been assigned, sometimes seemingly arbitrarily, by one index provider or another.
Although we think it's too early to declare the economy is in a recession, risk is elevated. For investors who are concerned about a recession, municipal bonds may help buffer a portfolio.
Recent economic data points have been mixed. On the more positive side of the ledger, there’s evidence that inflation is cooling and consumer spending remains sturdy. Conversely, the jobs market is cooling.
