In the end, it does not matter if you are “bullish” or “bearish.” However, what is grossly important in achieving long-term investment success is not necessarily being “right” during the first half of the cycle, but by not being “wrong” during the second half.
Monetary cycles define eras of opportunity. For years, we lived under quantitative tightening. Liquidity was withdrawn, balance sheets were reduced, and capital became expensive.
Closing the books on fiscal year 2025, the U.S. ran a deficit of $1.77 trillion, a slight improvement from $1.83 trillion in 2024. But a peacetime deficit exceeding 6% of gross domestic product (GDP) is still cause for worry.
In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey leans on Greg Weldon’s “debt black hole” metaphor to explain how towering obligations now warp policy, markets, and household finances.
Clearly, policies which boost individual freedom, not government engineering, work best. And as usual, the arguments of one political party are often designed to hide the fact that their policies are the very thing they claim to detest in the other.
Investors will be looking for a read on hyperscaler AI spending, the impact of rising competition, and expansion to new growth areas in the chipmaker's upcoming Q3 earnings report.
If you’d told me twenty years ago that we’d soon see rockets launching into orbit every day-and-a-half, I’d have smiled politely and changed the subject. Yet here we are: in the first half of 2025, a new launch hit the sky every 28 hours—six hours ahead of last year’s record pace.
n the report, Global Head of Credit Research Mike Talaga, Portfolio Manager Nicholas Ware, and Credit Analyst James Donahue discuss how new issuance by tech companies to fund capital spending on artificial intelligence (AI) projects may be reshaping the technical picture for credit.
With peak earnings season now in the rearview mirror, the market's focus shifts from broad-based results to specific, unresolved questions. Last week's tech sell-off and mixed IPO fortunes have put a spotlight on valuations, making Nvidia's upcoming report a critical test for the entire AI sector.
For the third quarter of 2025, most energy infrastructure companies maintained their payouts, with MLPs largely providing sequential growth. Still, the vast majority of midstream companies have increased their dividends within the last year.
As someone who’s been involved in capital markets his entire adult life, I can safely say that gold investors haven’t seen a period like this in decades. The third quarter of 2025 was nothing short of historic, and in many ways, I believe we’re witnessing the beginning of a new era for the yellow metal.
Markets wobbled as Washington’s shutdown drama ended, but I don’t view last week’s pullback as the start of a bear market. The Dow just printed fresh highs, breadth rotated toward quality and defensive stocks, and the weakness centered on AI-linked capex stories repricing risks associated with the capex buildouts.
The government shutdown came to an end last night after 43 days, making it the longest shutdown in history. We will leave it to the political commentators to pass judgment on what it means for the decision-makers in Washington.
The Artificial Intelligence boom has created one of the most powerful growth cycles in market history. Yet the biggest AI names—NVIDIA, Microsoft, Broadcom, and others—now trade at extremely high valuations, offering low earnings yields and limited margin of safety.
While stock and bond markets wait for U.S. federal data to become available again, private-sector reports suggest lukewarm overall economic growth.
Capital controls can be used to keep investors at home. Bank reserve and liquidity requirements can also be employed for this purpose: U.S. banks hold $2 trillion more in government debt than they did six years ago.
Retirement planning shouldn’t be defined by “needs” but by the lifestyle you want to sustain. This piece reframes retirement as a phase for living fully—balancing taxes, inflation, and income sources to enable abundance.
Market corrections often present chances to acquire quality assets at attractive valuations. Hence, “buy the dip” has long been a mantra for many investors.
While headlines often speculate about an AI bubble, we believe the long-term outlook for technology remains strong. Periodic volatility is a normal part of any innovation cycle and unlikely to derail our constructive view on equities.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
There’s no denying AI has again been a captivating theme for investors and technology enthusiasts this year. But that proposition could be ramped up in 2026.
While consensus remains cautious, there is a case, however tenuous, for economic reacceleration. This isn’t about ignoring risks. It’s about acknowledging that conditions aligning could drive a shift from stagnation to renewed growth.
As happened in the previous era, several forces are combining to keep inflation alive. Today I want to review what’s happening. This won’t be a fun letter to read, but it’s important. You need to prepare for what could be coming.
We were in the camp that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should have reduced interest rates during the first half of the year, taking advantage of the underlying disinflationary path during that period.
My first experience with a major economic/stock market bubble was the dot-com bubble of 1998-2000. Many investors forget that the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Index bubble that ended March 10, 2000, was the first bubble in a series of three bubbles.
This year, Americans will give more than $500 billion to charity, according to the National Philanthropic Trust. While meeting philanthropic goals is important for donors, these gifts may also provide valuable tax benefits.
Corporate bonds typically appeal to those seeking higher yield potential relative to safer government debt, but current market uncertainty may keep fixed income investors from making the move. However, strong fundamentals are also underpinning corporate bonds, which only add to their appeal despite ongoing risks.
Chinese equities have performed strongly this year amid a general re-rating driven by easing geopolitical tensions, continued government stimulus and the global AI-related buildout. Portfolio Managers Andrew Mattock, CFA, and Winnie Chwang explain the drivers of the rally and the opportunities and challenges ahead.
As global labor arbitrage becomes less viable and access to cheap labor in emerging markets continues to narrow, businesses are increasingly turning to AI as a domestic solution for cost control and productivity gains.
As the final quarter of 2025 begins, it's a critical moment to look back at the preceding three quarters. Each year carries its own narrative, and 2025 was no exception. Markets trended downward early in the year owing to trade-talk-driven uncertainty, reaching a crescendo in volatility following the unexpected announcement of significant tariffs in April.
Consumers are in a sour mood over inflation and jobs as major retailers prepare to report earnings and offer their outlooks for the holiday shopping period.
Now that government workers are back in the office, the data flood is coming. Here are the four reports we’re most excited for, why they matter, and what we last heard from them.
Though we are getting limited amounts of economic data during the federal government shutdown, the official and private sector data we are receiving generally paints a positive picture for U.S. economic activity.
Many may look at a headline performance figure like “the bond market is up 7%” and understandably feel encouraged. On paper, that appears to be a solid result. But nominal returns alone rarely tell the full story.
When evaluating the integration of gold and bitcoin into their investment strategy, investors should carefully examine both their similar properties and fundamental differences. These assets are frequently positioned as alternative value repositories, particularly valuable during periods of macroeconomic volatility and uncertainty.
Markets don’t sleep over the holidays, but they do slow down. Historical trading patterns show consistent liquidity shifts from late November through early January.
To be sure, it’s not a point for investors to get carried away with. But it is noteworthy in the current environment. RSPF has exposure to the booming prediction markets space. That’s likely an underappreciated factor. And that’s because of the ETF’s status as a home to a slew of old-guard bank st
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain on edge as investors weigh the fallout from the shutdown, mounting layoffs, and signs of waning consumer confidence against hopes for continued monetary policy support.
We discuss Figure’s $1 billion fundraise, XPENG’s (XPEV) humanoid launch, the humanoid market, and how Elon’s $1 trillion pay package fits into this.
While AI applications dominate the conversation, a less-visible hardware trend is already delivering results. Key photonics companies are posting strong earnings, validating the theme for investors in AI and robotics and automation ETFs.
The retirement landscape in America is undergoing a quiet revolution, according to Vanguard’s inaugural "How America Retires" report.
As the year winds down, many investors focus on year-end charitable giving and tax planning. Finding a charity and donating money is the easy part. Taking slightly different approaches to gifting can yield dramatically different results from a tax perspective.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
On the Money Metals podcast, host Mike Maharrey sits down with Philip Newman, founding partner and managing director at Metals Focus in London. Newman explains that Metals Focus, launched in 2013, is a pure precious-metals research house; it does not trade.
A bipartisan group of senators struck a deal on November 9th to re-open the government, with seven Democrats and one independent joining 52 of the 53 Republicans to reach the elusive 60-vote supermajority needed to move forward.
Taiwan-based insurers are gearing up for a big overhaul in their regulatory framework. The transition to the Taiwan Insurance Capital Standard (TW-ICS) is slated for January 2026, though some provisions will have a lengthy phase-in period.
Are U.S. stocks approaching bubble territory or is the bull run able to press on? Active investor Tony DeSpirito is optimistic but says pockets of bubble-like exuberance could create mispricings ― making it “an exciting time for stock selection.” He suggests three areas that may be ripe for the picking.
Hints of reforms to ease foreign-ownership limits in Saudi Arabia set off the sharpest rally for its equity market in years this autumn, reigniting investor curiosity.
The Fed can turn QE back on like they did in the latter part of 2019, most likely by buying T-bills. It is important to note that this would be purely a technical mechanism for the funding markets and not a dual mandate monetary policy consideration.
When we look at broader multi-asset portfolios that tap into real assets, including digital assets, as well as inflation fighters like income securities and real return strategies, we find that they have delivered strong results to the debasement-trade crowd.
